North Carolina’s midterm election turnout, in three charts and a map
While the state’s population boomed in the past decade, all that growth did not translate into increased voter turnout in this year’s midterm elections.
Turnout this election cycle was lower than in 2018 despite a U.S Senate race on the state’s ballot and claims by both political parties about the pivotal nature of these election results.
Democrats largely campaigned nationwide and in the state on how these elections will have repercussions on the future of reproductive rights and democracy, while Republicans rallied voters by blaming inflation and the negative economic outlook on Democrats.
Republicans in North Carolina ultimately took the larger share of wins. While the elections moved the state’s delegation in the House of Representatives from a split of eight Republicans and five Democrats to an even 7-7 split, Republicans won the state’s U.S. Senate race, flipped the state Supreme Court to a Republican majority and gained a supermajority in the state Senate while falling one seat short of a supermajority in the state House. (In 2018, there were congressional, judicial and state House and Senate races on the ballot but no U.S. Senate race.)
Those wins may have been cemented by higher turnout among the Republican base.
Now that we have complete data on the more than 3.7 million people in North Carolina who cast ballots in these elections, here’s what we know:
Turnout by party
Statewide, there was a 51% voter turnout compared to a 52.9% turnout in 2018.
- Republican voters turned out at a higher rate than Democratic voters: 51.3% of Democratic voters cast a ballot, compared to 58.6% of Republicans. In 2018, the gap was smaller: 54.5% Democratic voters turned out, compared to 58.2% of Republican voters. Those numbers are based on voter registration, and voters registered with a party may not vote for that party’s candidates.
- While voters registered as unaffiliated with any party in North Carolina continue to grow — surpassing the major parties this year as the largest bloc of registered voters — they turned out at a lower rate than in 2018. This year, 44.8% of unaffiliated voters cast a ballot, while 46.3% did in 2018.
- Durham County, a blue stronghold, saw a lower Democratic turnout: 57.3% this year vs. 59.6% in 2018.
- Randolph County, a red stronghold, saw the same Republican turnout, 59.1% both years.
- Nash County, where voters have flip-flopped in their party preference, saw Republicans turn out more than Democrats this year. In 2018, 56.5% of Democrats turned out, compared to 62.2% of Republicans. In 2022, 51.2% of Democrats and 64.7% of Republicans turned out.
Turnout by race and ethnicity
Minority voters, in particular Black voters, tend to lean Democratic. In North Carolina, a swing state, Democrats often rely on Black voters to boost their election margins and win races. Meanwhile, Republicans often get and rely on high white voter turnout.
This year, Democrats hoped Cheri Beasley’s historic candidacy for the Senate would energize Black voter turnout, as previously reported by The News & Observer. Beasley lost the race to Republican Ted Budd. Had she won, she would’ve become the state’s first Black woman senator.
This year, statewide:
White voters had higher turnout: 58.3% in 2022 vs. 56.2% in 2018.
Black voters had lower turnout: 41.9% in 2022 vs. 48.4% in 2018.
Hispanic voters also turned out at a lower rate, 25.8% in 2022 vs. 35% in 2018. The state’s Hispanic population grew to over 1 million in the 2020 census.
The same is true for Asian American voters: 39.1% turnout in 2022 vs. 44.2% in 2018.
Eastern North Carolina counties have a high percentage of Black voters, particularly counties such as Edgecombe, Halifax, Warren and Northampton, according to the 2020 census. All of these counties saw a decrease in Black voter turnout.
Counties that have the highest number of Black registered voters are Durham, Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Cumberland, Forsyth and Pitt counties. All of these also saw a decrease in Black voter turnout.
Western North Carolina counties have a higher percentage of white voters, particularly counties such as Ashe, Mitchell, Yancey, Madison and Haywood. Of these, Mitchell, Madison and Haywood saw a higher white voter turnout in 2022.
Counties with the highest number of white registered voters are Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Buncombe, Forsyth and New Hanover. All but Mecklenburg and Buncombe saw a higher white voter turnout in 2022 than four years earlier.
Turnout by age
- This year, statewide, young voters had lower turnout than in 2018, while older voters had higher turnout.
- There are more than 4.6 million registered voters over 41 and more than 2.8 million registered voters over 18 but under 41.
- Counties with the highest turnout by voters over 18 but under 25 were Orange, Yancey, Graham and Alleghany. Voters over 66 turned out the most in Chatham, Orange, Alleghany and Alexander counties.
- On the flip side of engagement, Onslow, Hertford, Robeson and Cumberland counties saw the lowest turnout among voters under 25, while Halifax, Robeson, Anson and Gates counties saw the lowest turnout for voters over 66.
Durham County had a 36.1% turnout in 2018 among voters under 25, compared to 31.1% in 2022. Voters over 66 in Durham turned out at 71.3% in 2018 and 75% in 2022.
Mecklenburg County had a 30.6% turnout in 2018 among voters under 25, compared to 23% in 2022. Voters over 66 turned out at 65.2% in 2018 and 66.2% in 2022.
Wake County had a 37.7% turnout in 2018 among voters under 25, compared to 32.3% in 2022. Voters over 66 turned out at 74.5% in 2018 and 75.4% in 2022.
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This story was originally published December 1, 2022 at 10:00 AM with the headline "North Carolina’s midterm election turnout, in three charts and a map."
