These factors will decide Tricia Cotham’s fate in 2024 — and NC’s balance of power
The Charlotte area’s most closely watched state legislative race could have widespread ramifications across North Carolina as Rep. Tricia Cotham faces voters for the first time since flipping parties.
Cotham gave the GOP a veto-proof supermajority in the North Carolina General Assembly when she switched parties from Democrat to Republican in 2023. She now faces Democrat Nicole Sidman in a redrawn House District 105, which covers parts of southeast Mecklenburg County.
Cotham’s decision — which made national news because it helped Republicans pass a bill restricting abortion access and a sweeping expansion to the state’s school voucher program — put a spotlight on the race. Both parties are pouring resources into the election to influence the balance of power in Raleigh.
Republicans currently hold 72 of 120 seats in the North Carolina House, a supermajority by just one vote, and 30 of 50 seats in the North Carolina Senate, which is a supermajority.
“Most state legislative races are really below the radar … But this one is more like a congressional campaign really, given the attention that Cotham’s party switch caused to begin with and then the resources that have flowed from that controversy,” said Eric Heberlig, a political science professor at UNC Charlotte.
There are other factors at play, too, including the demographics of the new district, a hotly contested presidential election and a headline-making controversy in the North Carolina governor’s race.
Together, those dynamics will likely make for a tight race come Election Day on Nov. 5.
“It’s a jump ball,” Heberlig said.
Cotham and Sidmans’ final campaign messages
Sidman, who won a three-person Democratic primary in March, said much of her campaign’s strategy focuses on voter outreach in the district, especially canvassing and meeting with undecided and persuadable voters.
“We have been knocking on doors and meeting people since the primary began, and we just haven’t stopped,” she said.
She’s also tried to spotlight her own platform, including her views on abortion access and public education and her background as a lawyer.
“I really want to make sure that people understand that I’m not just Tricia Cotham’s opponent. I also have a lot that I can bring,” she said.
Cotham did not respond to interview requests for this story and but completed an Observer candidate survey.
She touted her votes in favor of requiring sheriffs to work with federal immigration officials and cutting income taxes. Asked about her views on legislation related to reproductive health care, Cotham made apparent reference to her controversial abortion ban vote.
“I’m running to continue my work on education, taxes and public safety, not because of abortion. It’s important to state the facts instead of my opponents’ lies. After extensive review, I decided the legislation represented a good faith compromise,” she wrote.
Stephen Wiley, caucus director for North Carolina House Republicans, said the party is “feeling pretty optimistic” about her chances with a closing message focused on Cotham’s record.
“Rep. Cotham has a long record of getting things done across the aisle, and that will continue in 2025 because she is more focused on results and improving the lives of families and students in her hometown,” he said.
How Cotham party switch impacts campaign
Sidman said she frames Cotham’s party switch as a discussion of values, not political allegiance.
“Parties have become too important now. It’s the value switch that is of concern,” she said.
Sidman has gotten plenty of Democratic institutional support throughout her campaign.
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the party’s official group focused on state legislative races, named her one of 180 “spotlight candidates” nationwide. The program provides her campaign with additional fundraising opportunities and guidance on strategy. Gov. Roy Cooper headlined a fundraiser for Sidman in Raleigh last month.
Sidman reported $19,505.90 in contributions from political party committees and $30,800 from political action committees, including multiple liberal groups, in her most recent campaign finance report.
The financial support means Sidman’s campaign can afford advertising reminding voters about Cotham’s history, Heberlig said.
“What the advertising does is try to make that element of their decision a higher priority,” he said.
Cotham has gotten party support too in her first campaign as a Republican.
She’s reported $10,425 in contributions from political party committees and $79,800 from political action committees including Americans for Citizen Voting and multiple health care industry PACs, according to campaign finance records.
Trump, Robinson and redistricting effects
Cotham comes into the election with an advantage in her newly redrawn district. District 105 is 51.3% Republican to 46.5% Democrat, according to the website Dave’s Redistricting, which uses a composite of election results from 2016 to 2022.
“In an ordinary year,” Heberlig said, that would indicate a likely Republican victory.
“But given the amount of attention and resources that are being spent on this race, given the likelihood that Democrats are going to turn out for this race in order to defeat Tricia Cotham, that makes this a more balanced district than its Republican lean would suggest,” he said.
The district is suburban and well-educated, demographics Republicans have struggled with at times in the age of former President Donald Trump, Heberlig noted.
The scandal surrounding Republican governor candidate Mark Robinson, who is suing CNN over a report alleging he made sexually explicit and racist comments on an adult website, could also hurt the GOP in the district, he added. Like many Democratic candidates statewide, Sidman has tried to tie Cotham to Robinson since the CNN story published.
“This may be a district where that small drag at the top of the ticket for state legislative candidates could make a difference,” Heberlig said.
Sidman’s campaign is making an effort to reach the district’s persuadable voters on issues such as preserving access to reproductive health care in the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade and funding for public education, she said.
Suburban Mecklenburg is a key area for “both parties up and down the ballot,” Wiley said of the GOP’s closing strategy in Cotham’s race.
‘Tight,’ ‘important’ race
Wiley predicted a close race in District 105.
“We expect it to be tight on Election Day, but feel good about the trajectory of the campaign,” he said.
If Democrats are able to capitalize on the anger against Cotham for her party switch, it could benefit more than just Sidman, Heberlig said.
“They’re so angry with Tricia Cotham, so motivated to get her out of office, that you may have a number of Democrats who would otherwise be ambivalent about showing up and voting in the presidential race who are going to show up and vote because they want to affect this state legislative race,” he said.
Both campaigns agree the biggest impact of the race outside of the district is what it could mean for the balance of power in the General Assembly.
Cotham’s party switch gave Republicans, who control both the chambers of the legislature, a big enough majority to override any of Cooper’s vetoes. Keeping her seat would help the GOP keep that control even if Democratic governor candidate Josh Stein wins, which he’s favored to do.
“It’s definitely one of the most important seats in the state for that reason,” Wiley said. “It’s one of the closest seats on paper, and one of a few seats that both parties are putting huge investments of time and money into because it could potentially be the seat that determines whether there is a Republican supermajority in the State House or not.”
On the other side, Sidman’s campaign is emphasizing to voters that a win for her could break the Republican supermajority.
“If Josh Stein is the governor, breaking the supermajority is the single most important thing we could do to help him,” she said. “So we just talk about how what happens in the state legislature is the most impactful thing on people’s lives, and it is probably one of the most misunderstood and ignored bodies of politics that impacts you more than anything else.”
This story was originally published October 17, 2024 at 6:00 AM.
