Black voter turnout down dramatically in NC so far. Is that a bad sign for Democrats?

With Election Day less than two weeks away, Black voters in North Carolina are voting early far less than they did in the last presidential election, according to the state’s data. As of Wednesday, Black voters had cast 207,000 fewer ballots compared with four years ago — a drop of almost 40 percent.

The question is: Does it matter for Democrats’ chances?

The trend follows remarks by former president Barack Obama, who recently raised concerns about a perceived lack of enthusiasm from Black men about Vice President Kamala Harris.

The former president, who is speaking at a rally in Charlotte on Friday, said that he hasn’t seen the same level of turnout and enthusiasm for Harris from Black men as he did when he ran and won twice.

“Part of it makes me think you just aren’t feeling the idea of having a woman as president,” Obama said to a room of Black men in Pennsylvania earlier this month.

In a battleground state like North Carolina, Black voters are a crucial community for the Democratic party to turn out. But local Democrats and political experts offered mixed reactions to the early voting numbers.

Some political experts lack faith in the Democrats’ ability to build up their numbers with Black voters before Election Day. Others say comparing the numbers to four years ago, during COVID, creates a skewed view of where the party stands.

Harvey Gantt, the first Black person elected as mayor of Charlotte, expressed surprise about the early voting numbers compared with prior years.

“I think we’ve got a problem. I’m very concerned about that,” he said Tuesday. “I would have hoped the vote would have been bigger, particularly the Democratic vote. We’ve got a great candidate, and I’m just wondering about why that’s the case.”

Concerns about 2020 comparisons

On Oct. 23, 2020, 566,162 Black voters had cast an in-person or mail-in ballot, according to state data. That compares with 358,880 this year — a difference of more than 207,000 votes.

Michael Bitzer, the politics department chair at Catawba College, said that during the pandemic, North Carolina saw more mail-in ballots than ever before.

“I think we need to be extremely cautious in making the 2020 comparison,” Bitzer said. “Because four years ago, in the midst of the pandemic, we had 19% of all the votes cast come by the mail in this state. And the typical (mail-in) turnout, is usually 3% to 5%.”

Now with the pandemic not a significant factor, it’s unclear if the same voters who used mail-in ballots last election will show up to vote early in-person or on Election Day.

Democrats also downplayed a new wave of Republican early voters. Donald Trump has encouraged Republicans to vote early in an effort to avoid issues he claims lost him critical states in the 2020 election.

Through Wednesday, Republicans are narrowly outnumbering Democrats in N.C. early voting — a difference of more than 3,300 ballots.

But Julia Buckner, lead organizer for the Mecklenburg County Democrats, said Democrats will show up.

“Yes, there are some conservative voters showing up at the polls (early), but our team far outnumbers them,” she said. “And it appears that these are not new voters for the conservatives. We’re not seeing any mobilization trends. The people who appear to be voting on the conservative sides are the folks who normally vote on Election Day.”

Republicans argue this early turnout reflects their party’s enthusiasm in this year’s election.

Despite Buckner’s optimism, political experts say Democrats still have work to do with Black voters ahead of Election Day.

Eric Heberlig, professor of political science at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, said that Black voter turnout in North Carolina has decreased year after year since Barack Obama was elected. This could be due to “unfulfilled promises” from Democrats such as police reform and voting rights for former felons, Heberlig said.

“They promised that it would be the land of milk and honey, and it isn’t. Therefore they didn’t follow through on what they said they were going to do,” he said.

With Election Day nearing, Heberlig said Democrats should be doing whatever they can to secure Black votes. The chance of making a big impact with the time they have left, though, is small.

They could try to make up some votes from groups who traditionally vote Republican – such as suburban and rural voters – but going that route comes with risks.

“The challenge is, since African Americans have traditionally been such a core source of support for the Democrats, particularly in the South, that replacing them with more uncertain voters is, you know, a much riskier proposition,” Heberlig said.

Obama’s critiques not seen locally

Despite Obama’s recent criticism, local Democrats and political experts say they aren’t seeing massive hesitancy from Black men to cast their votes for Harris. While that reluctance may be there, they say, they believe it’s on a small scale.

Jamie Harrison, the chair of the Democratic National Committee, hosted a Black Men for Harris breakfast panel Thursday in Steele Creek to understand what Black men want to see from the campaign locally.

Harrison, who is Black, said he doesn’t see hesitation from Black men to vote for Harris. But he expressed the importance for Black men to “understand the strength of Black women.”

“I think it’s important for us to know that many of our families, but for the Black women in them, would not be as successful, would not thrive and flourish as they do now,” he said. “... Sometimes you have to step out of the politics to recognize what we have and where we are and where we need to go.”

Dr. Monty Witherspoon, pastor and member of the Charlotte-Mecklenburg Board of Education, said for the men who do express hesitancy about Harris, it’s about debunking myths about her and emphasizing the stakes of this election.

“This election has more than just historical significance as the first Black woman (president),” Witherspoon said. “... This is for our children. You know this election is going to have consequences, impacts for the next 50 years or more. And it behooves us to step up to this moment and hope for our future.”

Heberlig said Obama’s criticisms apply to all people who may be hesitant about the idea of having a woman as president, not just Black men.

“Things can be motivational, you know, even if they’re well, not true,” he said. “We see that with dis-information all the time. They can be motivational, even if you know he’s targeting his message to Black men, but the same message would apply to anybody else.”

Leah Smart, a senior organizer for the Mecklenburg County Democratic Party, said while she doesn’t think Obama’s concerns were made up, they may have been exaggerated.

“We do need to convince those voters who might have a hesitancy that this is the option that they should be going with… on the other side, it is a matter of being like, we can’t make this grand assumption that every Black man is out here like, ‘Well, I wouldn’t vote for a woman’,” she said.

As Election Day nears, Smart said she’s not concerned about Black voters.

“There’s never been a problem with the Black vote. Like we turn up and we turn out,” she said. “We know what we’re doing.”

This story was originally published October 25, 2024 at 5:00 AM.