Will Black Charlotte voters decide whether Mecklenburg’s transit referendum passes?
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Black leaders in Charlotte are divided on the transportation referendum
- African American residents make up almost 30% of registered voters in Mecklenburg County
- Political leaders and experts expect Black voters to influence the referendum’s chances
Prominent leaders and organizations in Charlotte’s Black community are divided on Tuesday’s transportation referendum, which could influence its chances at the ballot box.
Mecklenburg voters are set to approve or reject a 1% sales tax rate increase to fund billions in road, rail and bus projects. The effort is years in the making and would fund high-profile projects such as the Red Line commuter rail to the Lake Norman area.
Supporters and opponents of the plan have waged campaigns for months that haven’t broken along traditional political alliances. Some longtime Democratic and Republican local leaders have backed the plan. But many progressives question what it will do for low- and middle-income communities. Some conservatives have opposed the tax increase.
There’s also significant opposition in east Mecklenburg over the shortening of the planned Silver Line light rail.
Black voters represent nearly 30% of the county’s electorate, data show, making it a powerful bloc for proponents and opponents of the referendum to sway. Data from the Charlotte Area Transit System also show Black Charlotteans are a sizable portion of local transit riders on both buses and light rail.
The community is not a monolith, and voters are likely to be influenced by multiple factors including the cost of a tax increase, concerns about displacement and the potential benefits of economic development when making their decision, local political leaders and experts say. But the prominence of voices on both sides and size of both factions makes it harder to predict what the majority of Black voters will choose and how much that will impact the referendum’s chances.
“If people are hearing both messages, it certainly gives them a reason to think about it, rather than just go with whatever their predispositions were,” UNC Charlotte political scientist Eric Heberlig said.
Who’s endorsing, opposing transportation referendum?
Many prominent people and organizations in Mecklenburg’s Black community have spoken out on the transportation referendum.
Some of the region’s most prominent elected Black leaders — including Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles, U.S. Rep. Alma Adams and Mecklenburg County Commission Chairman Mark Jerrell — back the plan.
It’s also endorsed by the influential Black Political Caucus of Charlotte-Mecklenburg, which announced its support in early October.
Former Charlotte City Council member David Howard, a BPC member, said the group came to its decision after “robust conversation.” Howard said he’s personally supportive of the referendum because of how much effort it took to get the plan this far and his belief that it will elevate Charlotte’s transportation system to the level of other major cities.
“It’s the great equalizer, because it gives everybody an opportunity to move around, to go to school, to go to the doctor, to go to work. It gives people an opportunity to participate in this economy. And that should be reliable. It should be affordable, and it should be dependable,” Howard, who is also a former chief deputy for the North Carolina Department of Transportation, told The Charlotte Observer.
Other voices in the Black community have spoken out against the plan, including former Charlotte Mayor Pro Tem Braxton Winston and Charlotte City Council members Tiawana Brown, Renee Johnson and LaWana Mayfield.
Prominent civil rights leader Rev. William Barber III also weighed in on the sales tax referendum, the Observer reported in August. During a sermon at First Baptist Church, which has a sizable Black congregation, Barber said he opposed the transportation plan chiefly because it didn’t do enough to ensure people won’t be priced out of their homes along new transit lines.
Action NC political director Robert Dawkins, one of the main leaders of the opposition campaign, noted his organization is primarily concerned with low- and middle-income families and is focused on socioeconomic concerns. The group is worried about potential displacement brought on by the transportation plan and questions whether it does enough for transit-reliant communities.
A recent news release from Action NC touted opposition to the referendum from local Black media personalities and former Mayor Patrick Cannon, declaring that “Black voices rise against Charlotte’s transit tax.”
“The ones that will get left out will be, whether Black or Brown, it will be the ones that are poor, and that’s why we can’t support it,” Dawkins told the Observer.
The divisions were on display in early October at the Sarah Stevenson Tuesday Forum, where a majority Black audience gathered to hear from BPC Chair Jocelyn Jones-Nolley and Housing Justice Coalition leader Ismaail Qaiyim about their organizations’ respective support and opposition to the referendum.
After hearing from both speakers, attendees passed a microphone around the room to share their own opinions on the plan. Some made similar points as Howard, while others shared Dawkins’ view. Others said they were still undecided.
Will Black voters support or reject referendum?
Dawkins said many are undecided because they still don’t fully understand everything the plan on the ballot entails.
“What they have told them is, we know you don’t understand it. We know you don’t know the terminology, but this is the only chance you’re ever going to get, and if you don’t pass it now, you’ll never get that opportunity again,” Dawkins said of the pro-referendum campaign. “So they’re using these fear tactics to push it down the road. And that’s unfair.”
Howard said he thinks voter uncertainty has to do with the scope of what’s on the table.
Rather than falling along traditional party lines, Heberlig said he’s seen much of the debate over the referendum in the Black community and throughout Mecklenburg in general split between “establishment versus anti-establishment.”
Dawkins said some people claim the city’s transit plan could promote economic growth in traditionally Black neighborhoods and create opportunity for Black-owned businesses.
But he said others are concerned about the “regressive” nature of a sales tax increase. That’s a tax that takes a larger percentage of income from low-income taxpayers than from high-income taxpayers.
“If you want to transform low-to-moderate income people’s lives, specifically Black people, then you need to be spending money to get jobs closer to us, and then you don’t have to worry about spending all of this on transportation,” Dawkins said.
Howard said he’s emphasizing to residents that two of the rail projects slated to be funded by the tax increase — the new Silver Line light rail and the expansion of the Gold Line streetcar — will run west-to-east through many historically marginalized communities of color.
“I grew up on West Boulevard. We’ve been waiting for a big investment like this on our side of town for decades,” he said.
How will Black voters influence referendum outcome?
Regardless of where the majority of Black voters end up on the referendum, they have an opportunity to affect the outcome. Even in a low-turnout election, which is common in municipal election years in Charlotte, Heberlig predicted Black voters can still “probably retain close to their share of the electorate.”
“If you’re talking about a third of the electorate, if they swing one way or the other that has the ability to affect any outcome,” he said.
Heberlig noted the BPC’s endorsement may have “a significant impact,” because the group’s guidance is typically “a key source of information for many reliable Black voters, even if they’re hearing some messages from other organizations.”
The UNC Charlotte professor said he’s curious to see “how much of the split among Black leadership reflects an actual split in voters, and whether that’s enough to make a difference,” including whether some choose to stay home because they’re still unsure.
“That’s what people do when they’re conflicted. They don’t decide,” he said.
Heberlig noted that opposition in the African American community and among progressive groups helped take down a referendum to fund what would become the Spectrum Center in the early 2000s. That plan, which included $205 million for a sport arena as part of a $342 million package, failed at the ballot box in 2001.
“That’s the closest dynamic I can think of,” he said.
The record-setting school bond referendum on the 2023 municipal ballot also faced opposition from a coalition of African American clergy. But that measure ultimately passed by a wide margin.
When it comes to this year’s transportation referendum, Howard predicted many Black voters will end up on both sides come Election Day on Tuesday.
“I think the African American vote on this one will be split, just because there are strong voices on both sides,” he said.
This story was originally published November 3, 2025 at 10:41 AM.
