North Carolina has ‘uncontrolled spread’ of COVID-19, data show. How bad is it?
The coronavirus is spreading “uncontrolled” in North Carolina, a report shows.
A map created by public health and crisis experts uses COVID-19 data and White House reopening criteria to track each state’s progress in controlling the spread of the virus based on several measures. It then categorizes them into different levels of spread based on those trends.
North Carolina is in the “bruised red” color, indicating “uncontrolled spread” — the highest level.
The report tracks the spread of the virus using seven factors: the 14-day trend of positive cases, influenza-like illnesses, ICU bed capacity, hospital bed capacity, percent of the testing target reached, the percent of positive tests and new cases per million each day.
The state’s “weakest measure” determines its category: bruised red, red for trending poorly, yellow for making progress or green for trending better.
North Carolina’s 14-day trend of COVID-19 cases and its new cases per million per day pushed it into the “bruised red” category.
The state has seen a 27% increase in reported coronavirus cases over the last 14 days, according to the data. It’s also seen 177 new cases per million per day, the data show.
North Carolina fell into the “trending poorly” category for its positive-test rate, which the report says is at an average of 7.7% over the past seven days.
That percentage, based on data from the COVID Tracking Project, varies from N.C. Department of Health and Human Services’ data. Positive tests have fallen between 8% and 10% every day over the last few weeks — hitting 11% Monday, according to the state.
In either case, the percentage is not where it should be. Health officials have said it should ideally be closer to 5% to be moving in the right direction.
North Carolina fell into the green category in some measures, the report shows. It is meeting 152% of its testing goal and has seen minimal influenza-like illness levels. Its ICU capacity is also “normal” at 64%.
However, state data on Tuesday showed about 78% of ICU beds in use. The data in the report comes from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and only includes a “subset” of facilities.
Hospitalizations have been spiking in North Carolina, according to data from the health department.
They hit a record Tuesday at 1,109. Tuesday marked the sixth consecutive day in which daily hospitalizations in North Carolina topped 1,000.
Eighteen other states, including most of the Southeast, also fell into the bruised red category along with North Carolina, the data show.
Only four states made it into the green category: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Maine.
Once hot spots for the coronavirus pandemic, many northeastern states are now seeing some of the lowest cases and infection rates in the country. In turn, southern states have seen their cases skyrocket and are emerging as new hot spots for the outbreak.
This story was originally published July 14, 2020 at 4:53 PM with the headline "North Carolina has ‘uncontrolled spread’ of COVID-19, data show. How bad is it?."
