It’s been almost 2 years since it snowed in Raleigh. Could it still happen this winter?
This is for the romantics, the dreamers, the optimists who squint out the window on cloudy winter days and, mistaking a smudge on the glass, ask out loud, “Was that a snowflake?”
No. No, it wasn’t. It hasn’t snowed in Raleigh since Jan. 29, 2022, when the city got a scenic four-tenths of an inch in the early morning. It was so little snow that it was gone before some people finished their first cup of coffee.
But we loved it. We love snow, the whole idea of snow as we understand it: a tantalizing dusting, a painterly inch or, on the rarest of occasions, enough to build a snowman or stir into a bowl with sugar and drops of vanilla extract.
And we miss it. After nearly two years, and despite several teases from the National Weather Service suggesting the possibility only to be insulted by rain, we are nostalgic for snow. We need to know if it will ever snow in Raleigh again.
What happened to snow?
National Weather Service records and data collected by the N.C. State Climate Office show that snowfall – which has to measure at least a tenth of an inch, or a “trace,” to be recorded – has trended down in recent decades.
▪ In the 1980s, Raleigh saw snow 14 times, including three times when accumulation totaled 6.9 inches, 7.1 inches and 7.3 inches.
▪ In the 1990s, it snowed six times in Raleigh, measuring from a trace to 5.6 inches.
▪ From 2000 to 2009, it snowed 11 times, including a whopping 20.3 inches during a storm from Jan. 24-25, 2000.
▪ From 2010 to 2019, snow was recorded 11 times, including a 7-inch snowfall in December 2018. (There was an ice storm in 2019 but we don’t count that. There is nothing romantic about ice.)
▪ Since 2020, it has snowed five times in Raleigh in amounts ranging from the 0.4 inches of Jan. 29, 2022, to 2.5 inches in February 2020.
Meteorologists say snowfall is difficult to predict in Raleigh because when winter storms come through, the temperature here often hovers around freezing, and a degree or two one way or the other can mean the difference between snow and not snow.
“I think a lot of it is just luck,” said Corey Davis, assistant state climatologist with the Climate Office. “But we are seeing a trend of warmer winters so our snowfall amounts are decreasing over time.”
What about the El Niño effect?
Last fall, forecasters noted that a strong El Niño was building and that generally, the effect of that weather phenomenon in the Southeast is cooler, wetter winters.
We got the strong El Niño, but other factors at play have resulted in a wetter winter that’s been warmer, not cooler. So when those two Arctic blasts came through this month, we got tooth-chattering cold but no snowfall to show for it.
“It feels like we’re in a Goldilocks situation right now,” Davis said. “It’s either wet, but it’s too warm, or it’s cold but it’s too dry in our winter months.”
Typically, Davis said, North Carolina gets its best snow when cold air comes in from the west and settles in over the northeastern U.S., then a low-pressure system comes out of the Gulf of Mexico into the southeastern U.S., bringing moisture.
So far this winter, we’ve had the moisture, but not the cold air; and we’ve had the cold air, but not the moisture. If we want to build a snowman, they have to happen at the same time.
Could it still happen this winter?
Maybe, but not this week.
After a cold snap that dropped temperatures in Raleigh and across most of North Carolina well below normal last weekend, forecasters say the pendulum is about to swing back.
This week, temperatures are expected to be well above normal from Wednesday through Friday or Saturday, with some periods of rain.
“We’ll be trending 20 to 25 degrees above normal during the day and 30 to 35 degrees above normal at night,” said Aaron Swiggett, a meteorologist at the Weather Service in Raleigh. “It will feel like early to mid-April for a few days.”
Highs in Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill will be in the mid- to upper-60s through the week, with Wednesday expected to see 70 degrees.
Next week, temperatures will be back into the normal range for late January: highs around 50 degrees, lows between 30 and 35 degrees.
When do our chances for snow run out?
Average temperatures in Raleigh begin to climb in February, from average highs around 52 degrees at the beginning of the month to average highs around 58 degrees by the end of the month, with lows rising from 32 degrees to 36 degrees.
However, Raleigh has seen measurable snow in February, March, even April. In 1996, Raleigh got 5.6 inches of snow in February and 0.9 inches in March. As recently as February 2020, Raleigh got 2.5 inches of snow from a February storm.
In 2016, we even had a trace of snow in May.
“So I wouldn’t give up just yet,” Swiggett said.
We never do.
This story was originally published January 24, 2024 at 8:00 AM with the headline "It’s been almost 2 years since it snowed in Raleigh. Could it still happen this winter?."
