How bad will hurricanes be in the Carolinas this year? Here’s what AccuWeather predicts
The last four hurricane seasons in the Atlantic have been “above average,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
2020 could be just as severe, AccuWeather says.
NOAA, a federal agency that monitors yearly hurricane activity, hasn’t come out with 2020 predictions yet. But two months out from the start of the season, meteorologists with the commercial forecasting service AccuWeather are calling for an uptick in storms this year.
“Go back to last year with Dorian and Imelda, those were two very, very high-impact storms,” AccuWeather’s Dan Kottlowksi said. “This year, more than likely, we’ll get hit with one or two big storms and we don’t know specifically where that is, so if you live near a coast or on an island, have a hurricane plan in place.”
The average hurricane season on the east coast runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 and produces 12 named storms, six of which are hurricanes. About three of those are deemed “major,” according to NOAA.
This year, AccuWeather is forecasting between 14 and 18 tropical storms — seven to nine of which would become hurricanes. Two to four of those could “strengthen into major hurricanes,” Kottlowksi said.
By comparison, the 2019 season held 18 named storms and six hurricanes. Three of them — Dorian, Lorenzo and Humberto — were considered major, according to NOAA.
For the 2020 forecast, meteorologists relied on previous years “with comparable weather conditions” known as analog years, AccuWeather said. 2020’s analog years are 1980 — when Hurricane Allen arrived in Texas — and 2005 — which brought Hurricane Katrina to the Gulf Coast.
More than 1,800 people were killed because of Katrina, and some areas of New Orleans “still haven’t been fully restored and repopulated 15 years later,” AccuWeather reported.
2020’s biggest storms could be “direct hits” or barely scrape the coast — but they can still cause an impact, Kottlowksi said.
Meteorologists are also paying attention to water in the Bahamas and the Caribbean, which has already reached 80 degrees in late March, according to AccuWeather.
“Warm water is actually what drives a lot of seasons,” Kottlowski said. “So those will be areas to keep an eye on for early-season development.”
This story was originally published March 25, 2020 at 6:57 PM with the headline "How bad will hurricanes be in the Carolinas this year? Here’s what AccuWeather predicts."
