Farmers’ Almanac predicts ‘sweater weather,’ sleet in Charlotte for fall and winter
As summer winds down, the Farmers’ Almanac is already releasing its predictions for what winter will look like in the Charlotte area and beyond. And while some joke that fall is the non-existent season in the Southeast, the almanac offers forecasts for it, too.
While some swear by the annual guide, others are more skeptical of it. For them, weather data from previous years can provide a different way of predicting what the coming seasons will look like in the community.
Here’s what to know about the Farmers’ Almanac is forecasting for the fall and winter in the Charlotte area and how much weight to put on their predictions:
Farmers’ Almanac winter 2023 forecast for Charlotte, NC
The Farmers’ Almanac is predicting a wet winter nationwide, including in the Charlotte area, the guide says in its 2022-23 forecast.
“Much of the Southeast,” the Farmers’ Almanac says, “will see frequent storms bringing cold rains and a wintry mix of wet snow, sleet, ice, freezing rain — as well as chilly temperatures.”
The guide is calling for cold temperatures as well, especially in January in the Charlotte region.
“Fortunately, for the snowbirds, February will likewise warm the region to near-normal winter season temperatures overall,” the Farmers’ Almanac adds.
Is the Farmers’ Almanac accurate?
The Farmers’ Almanac, which boasts that it produces “a longer range weather forecast than any other source available,” bases its forecasts on “a specific and reliable set of rules that were developed back in 1818” that have been adapted into “a formula that is both mathematical and astronomical.”
“The formula takes into consideration things like sunspot activity, tidal action of the Moon, the position of the planets, and a variety of other factors,” the group says. “The only person who knows the exact formula is the Farmers’ Almanac weather prognosticator who goes by the pseudonym of Caleb Weatherbee.”
The Farmers’ Almanac claims that its “forecasts are 80% to 85% accurate.”
But some researchers have questioned that figure.
Penn State meteorologist Paul Knight studied the forecasts and called into question the secrecy behind the Farmers’ Almanac’s system.
“If you want to use that for some kind of planting purpose or guidance, more power to you,” Knight said in his report. “And if it works for you, great. But will it work regularly? No.”
Charlotte winter weather records
Another way of predicting what winter will look like in Charlotte is looking back on past years, using records from the National Weather Service.
A “normal” amount of annual snowfall in Charlotte is 4.3 inches, according to the NWS. That figure is based on snowfall records dating back to 1878. January is usually the snowiest month, averaging 2.1 inches.
January is also usually the coldest month in Charlotte, with an average temperature of 40.1 degrees.
What about fall in Charlotte?
Before we can get to winter we’ll first have fall, which kicks off in less than a month on Sept. 22.
“Despite the summer heat, Farmers’ Almanac extended fall forecast calls for lower-than-usual temperatures nationwide,” the Farmers’ Almanac predicts. “The cold will really begin to take hold during the latter half of November and continue right through the rest of the year.”
In Charlotte and the surrounding areas specifically, the Farmers’ Almanac is calling for plenty of “sweater weather” and “average precipitation.”
Charlotte typically averages very little to no snow in October and November, according to National Weather Service data, and about 3 inches of rain a month in fall.
