Will NC see warm, dry or rainy weather this fall? What experts forecast
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Experts forecast above normal fall temperatures across most of North Carolina.
- NOAA predicts increased hurricane activity with up to 5 major storms in 2025.
- Rainfall forecasts diverge; NOAA expects more rain, but Almanac projects a drier fall.
After a month of record-high temperatures in the Triangle, August is off to a cooler start.
With an average temperature of 84 degrees, July was the hottest on record at Raleigh-Durham International Airport, The News & Observer previously reported.
But in a briefing Monday, Aug. 4, the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Raleigh said temperatures would be near or below normal throughout the week.
Despite this cooldown, weather experts are warning us not to get our hopes up. Both The Old Farmer’s Almanac and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association are predicting above normal temperatures for the rest of the year.
Here’s what to expect from the weather over the next few months.
When is the first day of fall 2025?
Don’t be fooled by the sub-80 temperatures and cloudy skies: It is very much still summer. And not just summer, but the dog days of summer, according to The Old Farmer’s Almanac.
Astronomical fall begins with the September equinox, when the center of the sun crosses over the plane of Earth’s equator. This year, it’s Monday, Sept. 22.
Equinoxes and solstices mark astronomical seasons, and these events vary by year.
But meteorological seasons don’t change. Every year, meteorological fall — the transitional period between summer, the warmest time of year, and winter, the coldest — begins Sept. 1 and ends Nov. 30.
Fall forecast for North Carolina
Meteorologists at The Old Farmer’s Almanac predict that most of North Carolina will get a warm, dry fall.
The westernmost part of the state, however will be cooler and drier than normal in September and October, the meteorologists predict.
To make its long-range forecasts, The Old Farmer’s Almanac studies sunspots and solar activity, climatology and meteorology, comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center also predicts above normal temperatures in North Carolina for September, October and November. It differs from The Old Farmer’s Almanac prediction for precipitation, though. The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting that North Carolina will receive above normal precipitation this season.
AccuWeather meteorologists predict that North Carolina will experience a slower transition to cooler fall weather, with heat and humidity sticking around for longer. Extended dry periods could mean some parts of North Carolina could see an increased fire risk this fall, according to AccuWeather. And tornadoes tied to tropical systems could hit Florida and the Southeast in coming months.
Hurricane season 2025
Weather experts are predicting above normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association said in its late May forecast that there would likely be 13 to 19 named storms this hurricane season, which runs from June through November.
Of those, between six and 10 would be hurricanes, including three to five major hurricanes, NOAA said. Major hurricanes are classified as category 3, 4 or 5 storms, with winds of 111 mph or greater.
So far, four storms have been named this year, including Tropical Storm Dexter, which is moving northeastward across the Atlantic, away from the U.S. coast.
But the National Hurricane Center is tracking two disturbances that may develop into tropical cyclones in coming days.
This story was originally published August 6, 2025 at 10:16 AM with the headline "Will NC see warm, dry or rainy weather this fall? What experts forecast."
