Does data support closing NC businesses?

We are daily receiving news about COVID-19. What are we to believe? What are we to do?

My heart goes out to families who have lost loved ones, who are sick and who have lost jobs. Many were already struggling with financial, family, and health issues; add COVID-19 and that puts them on the edge. There are dramatic increases in depression, suicide and spousal abuse as people reach a state of hopelessness.

How do we turn this around? How do we get our lives back? I say we follow the scientific evidence.

There are several medical and science sources that suggest the overall infection rate of COVID-19 in many places is much higher than originally thought. One such study is from Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, a professor of medicine at Stanford University. The study suggests that as we test more, the number of cases increase, but death rates are not rising dramatically. Dr. Bhattacharya’s study estimated that 2.49% to 4.16% of people in Santa Clara Country had been infected with COVID-19 by April 1. His team then extrapolated that data across the population of the county.

As we review the rates of infection, testing, and death for various U.S. states and foreign countries, similar patterns emerged. He found similar rates for test positives and infection rates in other states. Most deaths had comorbidities.

It is entirely possible that far more people have the COVID-19 virus in their systems but have either shown no symptoms or had a very mild case. Ultimately the best method to confirm such a theory is to conduct antibody testing on a much larger scale.

As of Tuesday, North Carolina had 15,346 confirmed cases and a 7.5% infection rate for those tested. The COVID-19 death rate for N.C. is about 3 in every 100,000 residents, or 0.003%. This means your chance of dying from COVID-19 in N.C. is less than one half of 1%!

Does the current data support closing businesses, losing jobs, collapsing industries such as airline travel, entertainment, and restaurants? Does it necessitate laying off healthcare workers and furloughing doctors who are unable to treat needy patients? The data make answers increasingly clear. Understand, my aunt passed away from complications of COVID-19. I also have a friend suffering from the pain of kidney stones who cannot get the “non-essential” procedure she needs given medical staff has been furloughed.

According to many immunology and virology specialist and scientists, we build immunity when our immune system mounts a response after exposure to antigens such as bacteria and viruses to produce protective antibodies. It’s possibile that sheltering in place might decrease our immunity.

It is time to abandon the inaccurate models in favor of COVID-19 data accumulated from across the globe in recent months. People with compromised immune systems - the elderly, those with comorbidities – should be encouraged to continue to take precautions, including accommodations to work from home, when possible.

As time passes, we see that continued shutdown of our economy is misguided. Give people the freedom to return to work. Ask employers and business owners to take increased measures to clean and disinfect work and public spaces regularly. Let people decide what to do for themselves based on advice from government and elected officials rather than broad-reaching executive orders forcing people into untenable circumstances that are demonstrably making things worse.

This story was originally published May 14, 2020 at 11:40 PM.