UNC coronavirus expert: It’s not safe to reopen

Lisa Gralinski calls Durham home, but these days where she really lives is in a sealed lab on the campus of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. There she is immersed in finding ways to treat the new coronavirus and stop its spread.

The assistant professor of epidemiology at UNC’s Gillings School of Global Public Health specializes in how coronaviruses enter and affect the body. She is part of a 15-member team of researchers headed by Dr. Ralph Baric, one of the world’s foremost experts on coronaviruses.

Since a sample of the new coronavirus – SARS-CoV-2 – arrived at the lab in early February, Gralinski, 39, has been working seven days a week – most of those days 12 hours long.

The months of intense research give her a rare understanding of the pathogen that has forced most people to stay at home, caused millions of job losses and has so far killed more than 300,000 people worldwide.

Much about the coronavirus is unknown, but Gralinski knows this: It’s not safe to reopen the economy.

“We know there is risk associated with starting to reopen,” she said. “The way you mitigate the risk is being able to quickly identify infections, and our testing capabilities just aren’t there yet.”

While stay-at-home orders have stabilized infection rates, the coronavirus is still very much with us, she said.

“It’s good that the curve has flattened, but people are confused about ‘flattening the curve’ and actually improving,” she said. “Flattening the curve means things are not getting worse. It means there will be room for you at the hospital. It doesn’t mean return to life like it was in December.”

Despite the plateau, the coronavirus is still racing through the human population at the rate of 80,000 to 90,000 new cases a day, she said. Like strains of the flu, it may always be in circulation.

“I can’t see how this gets controlled anytime soon, if ever,” she said. The hope, she said, is that a vaccine will make the virus less of a concern.

Work toward a vaccine is moving quickly. The Food and Drug Administration has fast-tracked studies and scientists around the world are sharing what they are learning about the virus.

“Things are moving at an astounding pace that no one ever thought possible,” Gralinski said. She noted that a potential vaccine developed by the Massachusetts biotechnology company Moderna has moved to a phase 2 clinical study in which it will be tested in humans.

But even under fast-track conditions, finding an effective vaccine could be more than a year away. The main delay is that scientists need to wait for months to know how the body will respond to an experimental vaccine. “You can’t rush that,” she said.

Meanwhile, she said, there is still a question about whether people who recover from infections with this new coronavirus develop immunity.

“The answer is ‘probably,’ but we would not be able to guarantee that to anyone at this point,” she said. If there is immunity, she said, it is unknown how long it would last.

Researchers are also trying to answer why people have widely different reactions to infections. She said it is possible a person’s genetic makeup plays a role, something she plans to test in the lab.

Asked for her best advice for the public, Gralinski said to listen to Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. infectious disease expert. He has irked President Trump by advising that the U.S. reopen slowly and carefully.

Gralinski is extremely careful to avoid infection. If she were to test positive, her team would have to go into quarantine, setting back their urgent work. Her husband does the shopping. She hasn’t been to a store in four months.

“It’s understandable that people feel impatient,” she said. “The science is moving at an earth-shattering speed, but it’s impossible to get answers as fast as some politicians want. So we all have to do our part to keep safe.”

This story was originally published May 15, 2020 at 5:00 AM with the headline "UNC coronavirus expert: It’s not safe to reopen."