Analysis: Voters’ worries are coloring NC’s primary elections

On the eve of Tuesday’s primary, North Carolina finds itself, like much of the nation, oddly caught between prosperity and anxiety.

The economy, by many measures, is strong. State tax revenues came in $4.2 billion above the forecast, and Gov. Roy Cooper last week proposed an aggressive budget that includes raises for state employees and teachers.

In just the past four months, the state has announced new business investment worth $7 billion that will create more than 15,000 jobs, many of them high paying. Wages are rising, home equity is ballooning and the state unemployment rate has sunk to 3.5 percent, the lowest in 22 years.

But the good news has been undercut by soaring housing costs and a spike in inflation that has driven up the prices of other necessities like cars, gas and food. There are worries that interest rates will need to rise more to cool the economy and a recession may be around the corner. And then there’s the fear and aggravation that comes with a shape-shifting COVID virus that refuses to go away.

David Rohde, a Duke professor emeritus of politics, said the economic news is good and bad, but when it comes to elections, the bad has the stronger effect on voters. “When they think a lot of things are wrong, it doesn’t matter if a lot of things are right,” he said.

For instance, Rohde said, the unemployment rate, usually a key gauge of voters’ mood, is secondary now. “Unemployment only matters a lot to people who are unemployed or think they might be unemployed,” he said. “Inflation matters to everybody.”

David McLennan, a Meredith College politics professor who directs the Meredith Poll, agreed. “The macro economy is going well,” he said, “but it’s inflation that people see every day.”

How this split situation will affect a midterm primary election isn’t clear. Early voting is running ahead of the 2018 primary, but McLennan expects turnout will stay around the historic level of the mid- to high teens. However, he sees a wave building for a strong turnout in the November election, especially if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade.

Former President Donald Trump’s presence on the 2020 ballot fueled a surge in national turnout and a record 75 percent turnout in North Carolina. His divisive and energizing effect on the electorate will also play a role in the primary results.

The U.S. Senate Republican primary will test the strength of Trump’s endorsement of Rep. Ted Budd. Trump’s nod will be countered by the concern of Republican and unaffiliated primary voters who want to move beyond Trump and Trumpism by voting for former Gov. Pat McCrory or former Rep. Mark Walker.

Trump will also be a factor in the congressional primary in the newly drawn 13th District, where Trump-endorsed Bo Hines will try to win over a field of conservative Republicans. In the 11th Congressional District, Republican primary voters will show how much Trump’s endorsement, though now teetering, can save Rep. Madison Cawthorn from himself.

The mood of North Carolina’s electorate overall is favorable toward several progressive issues but turning rightward on what teachers should teach about sex and sexual identity, McLennan said, citing the Meredith Poll results.

“North Carolinians want Medicaid expansion. They want to protect abortion rights and legalize medical marijuana,” he said. “But they don’t want teachers talking about sexual issues. On that issue, North Carolina is showing its conservative side much more than on any other issue.”

Conservative and progressive voters will go their respective corners in primary races that tend to draw only the most committed. But the nominees who emerge will also face a polarized electorate, Rohde said.

“In the 1950s and 60s, as much as a third of the opposition party would vote for the other candidates for president. That’s where the big landslides came from,” he said. “You’re not likely to see another landslide, certainly not in my lifetime. It’s very different.”

This story was originally published May 15, 2022 at 4:00 AM with the headline "Analysis: Voters’ worries are coloring NC’s primary elections."