A Trump-Robinson-Bishop ticket could backfire on NC Republicans in 2024 | Opinion
Former President Donald Trump, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson and U.S. Rep. Dan Bishop have a lot in common. They often have little regard for human decency. They hold extreme positions that run contrary to public opinion on key issues. And, barring any surprises, they’ll be the Republican nominees at the top of the ticket in North Carolina in 2024.
It’s a remarkably red ticket, especially in a purple state like North Carolina. In fact, it might even be the most extreme top of the ticket in the history of our state — and one that could make 2024 a referendum on the extremism that has gradually overtaken the Republican Party in recent years.
They should be too extreme for North Carolina. Their outlandish and polarizing rhetoric should cost Republicans the election. But it might not.
Such an extreme group of candidates could backfire on Republicans, but it could also work in their favor, Western Carolina University political science professor Chris Cooper told me. While more extreme candidates might repel moderate voters, they also drive turnout from party loyalists.
In 2022, Republican extremism proved to be a losing strategy nationwide. Despite expectations of a red wave, GOP candidates who openly supported strict abortion bans and parroted false claims about the 2020 election lost their midterm races, even in swing states like Arizona and Pennsylvania. U.S. Sen. Ted Budd, an abortion absolutist and election denier himself, won North Carolina largely because he tamped down his rhetoric and ran a quiet campaign. But the dynamic of presidential election years is different from midterms, and the presence of Trump on the ballot may benefit Republicans, given his popularity with the party’s base and ability to get voters to the polls.
Ultimately, it comes down to whether Republicans choose a strategy of persuasion or mobilization in 2024, Cooper said. If they focus on persuasion of the swing voters they need, the rhetoric of their candidates may be a problem. But if they focus on mobilization, that incendiary rhetoric may be exactly what they need to get the Republican base to the polls.
Of course, Democrats could also try to make 2024 about GOP extremism. But Democrats in North Carolina have long had a turnout problem, and they may not be able to generate as much enthusiasm around someone like Joe Biden as Republicans can with Trump (or Robinson) in 2024.
Cooper said he expects Republicans to focus primarily on mobilization — and candidates like Robinson and Bishop probably won’t try to move closer to the middle, either.
“The specifics of this ticket mean that the Republicans are likely going to lean into mobilization, they’re going to lean into turnout, they are probably not going to try to persuade a lot of voters,” Cooper said. “And so I don’t expect their rhetoric to moderate as a result.”
Such is the plight of the modern-day Republican Party. While the things that right-wing politicians say are often false, offensive and downright dangerous, their behavior is largely rewarded by GOP voters and therefore tolerated by fellow elected officials in their party. Why stick to their principles when manufacturing outrage works so much better? That’s exactly how people like Trump and Robinson — no matter how much they champion white supremacists or denigrate women — find themselves at the forefront of the Republican Party instead of at its fringes.
To be fair, there are also more moderate Republicans running in statewide elections next year. Every Council of State seat — think state treasurer or commissioner of agriculture — is up for election as well. Those races are much more low-profile, but many of the Republican candidates aren’t nearly as polarizing as Robinson and Bishop.
Still, governor and attorney general are the most prominent state races on the ballot, and those candidates will be the face of North Carolina Republicans in 2024. That matters. Unlike in 2020, when the GOP gubernatorial and attorney general candidates weren’t nearly as well-known, Robinson and Bishop have cultivated national profiles, and there won’t be any Democratic incumbents running for re-election.
“Robinson’s penchant for outlandish statements on Facebook is going to be a problem for the Republicans, but it doesn’t mean that this race is anything other than a toss-up,” Cooper said. “No matter how extreme Mark Robinson may be, this is going to be a close election for governor. Make no mistake.”
