GOP strategist: Winning NC won’t be easy for Trump or Harris. One group of voters is key. | Opinion
Winning North Carolina in 2024 won’t be easy.
It wasn’t easy for former President Donald Trump in the previous cycle, whose victory here was his narrowest in any state. It certainly hasn’t been easy for Democrats historically, having captured the state just twice in the last half century.
With the stakes higher than they’ve ever been, the two major parties are intensely focused on securing North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes up for grabs in less than 90 days.
Both presidential campaigns are launching TV ad buys across the state, pouring millions into reaching as many voters as possible.
Trump traveled to Charlotte last month with running mate JD Vance to woo voters and undercut their newest opponent’s intense momentum.
Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris is doubling the size of her campaign staff across the state in an effort to repeat the success of Barack Obama in 2008, the last Democrat to achieve the feat. She also plans to visit N.C. later this month with running mate Tim Walz.
According to North Carolina’s State Board of Elections, since the last presidential election, Republicans have added 156,000 voters to their registration rolls, while Democrats have lost 126,000 registrants. For the presumptive Democratic nominee to be successful, she will have to lean on the infrastructure her party has invested heavily in over the years and build on it.
Fortunately for Harris, a deeper examination of the numbers reveals opportunity.
During a 2016 visit to Siler City, a town associated with “The Andy Griffith Show,” I was amazed at the number of Hispanic-owned storefronts. On a return visit in May 2024, I saw even more Hispanic storefronts, mirroring a near-doubling of Hispanic voters in the states.
Add to that, nearly 6 in 10 newly registered voters in North Carolina since 2020 are millennial age or younger. Of those, 34% identify as Black, Hispanic, Asian or Pacific Islander and 38.7% are unaffiliated.
Fresh polling from TelevisaUnivision and Media Predict shows that young voters of color, especially Hispanics, will be key in the 2024 election. In North Carolina, Hispanics are younger, averaging 33 years old, compared to 50 for non-Hispanics, and earn $22,000 less. Key concerns include cost of living and inflation, with 48% open to voting for a different party.
Just over half – 51% – of Hispanics said they were completely certain of their pick in the presidential race, while 66% of non-Hispanics said they were completely certain.
Democrats must engage Hispanic voters to keep them, while Republicans have a significant opportunity to address their concerns. Both parties need culturally resonant messaging that outlines their vision. Direct Spanish-language messaging in TV ads over the next three months would be a smart strategy.
North Carolina has long been considered a safe “red state,” despite the constant closeness of the state in presidential elections and Democratic dominance in statewide seats such as governor and attorney general.
The state is up for grabs. By focusing on key issues like economic stability, education, health care and immigration, and showing genuine engagement through outreach in their preferred language, they can sway a significant group of undecided voters in a race that will come down to the wire. Both parties will have the resources to do so.
This will be the difference between winning and losing.