GOP consultant: The October surprise is how little Republicans are doing to win | Opinion

Head-to-head polls in the presidential race are useless. This is not a sporting event — you can’t watch the halftime show to get updated scores across the country. The race is much more complex than that, and one needs to look at other factors to get a true sense of where the race stands.

Vice President Kamala Harris is a bit of a chameleon. We really don’t know that much about Harris, or her plans should she be elected president. Ask voters why they support her, and you will inevitably get an answer that lands on one single fact: Harris is not former President Donald Trump.

Harris has successfully avoided all meaningful interviews and doesn’t stake out very many new positions. When she does take a stand on something — like fracking — it’s often a dramatic election year reversal from her previously progressive positions.

While this frustrates Republicans, it’s a brilliant campaign move. By allowing voters to form their own perceptions of Harris based on vague statements, the campaign carefully avoids taking stances that could alienate key voter groups. It’s not all that different from Obama’s “Yes We Can” 2008 campaign.

All this seems like it should matter. After all, elections should be about issues and who is best qualified for the job. Unfortunately, that is not the case.

For the first time in modern political history, we have a nominee for president who has been on the ballot for three consecutive presidential elections. When Trump first ran, he was a relatively undefined figure running against an establishment candidate widely disliked by many voters.

Eight years later, the script has been flipped. Trump is now the establishment, well-defined, disliked candidate, and Harris is relatively unknown.

Furthermore, Trump’s mistake-ridden campaign seems to be stuck in 2016 and completely oblivious to the fact that voters’ opinions and tolerances have changed — particularly among women voters. Since Trump was elected, the Harvey Weinstein scandal broke, the #MeToo movement exploded, and suburban women in swing states have been very clear in their rejection of Donald Trump.

Need proof?

Exit polling shows that 57% of women in 2020 voted for Joe Biden. In 2022, women voters rejected the Trump endorsed candidates in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona.

Women voters will decide this election, and the fact that Trump has done nothing to bring them back is a problem. Former GOP Rep. Liz Cheney endorsing Harris is significant. Groups like Women4US — a principled group of prominent Republican women who have been in the trenches fighting for conservative values for years — are mobilizing across battleground states to actively persuade women to not vote for Trump.

Trump, on the other hand, has almost no ground game. Door knocking and phone calls are vital to persuading voters and turning them out on Election Day. This is basic “blocking and tackling.” The Harris campaign has a ground game, and Democrats are actively pursuing every vote — including spending nearly a half million dollars to reach overseas voters. Republicans, on the other hand, are pinning their hopes on fractured outside groups that are untested, disconnected and not working together. There is no cohesive strategy.

Meanwhile, the Republican National Committee — which historically deployed people into battleground states — has chosen to focus its efforts on election integrity programs. While these are important, you don’t win elections if you don’t get your voters to the polls.

This is political malpractice that hurts every Republican running for office.

The truth is Trump’s campaign might just be a lot of smoke and mirrors. While his rallies continue to attract massive crowds, his campaign offers no vision, ignores the glaring issue voters have with him, and has no turnout operation other than the strength of his personality.

At best, this is a Hail Mary pass.

When the story of the 2024 election is written in the history books, the October surprise might just be how little Republicans are doing to actually win this election.

This story was originally published October 11, 2024 at 9:40 AM with the headline "GOP consultant: The October surprise is how little Republicans are doing to win | Opinion."