A primary challenge to Thom Tillis? NC Republicans should tread carefully | Opinion
In recent years, U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis has carved out a role for himself as a “bipartisan dealmaker” in Washington. He’s taken part in negotiations on legislation to protect gay marriage, increase gun safety and reform the immigration system.
That’s a good thing for the country — and for the purple state Tillis represents — but it might not be a good thing for Tillis’ political future. A growing subset of the Republican base is not very happy with Tillis, whom they have dubbed “Traitor Thom.”
If Tillis chooses to run for reelection in 2026, he will be one of the country’s most vulnerable incumbents. Democrats will almost certainly eye North Carolina as an opportunity to pick up another Senate seat, and they’ll expend a lot of resources to do so.
But before that happens, Tillis may have to withstand a potential primary challenge from the wing of his party that has little patience for bipartisanship and institutionalism and instead demands ideological purity. A report circulating on social media found that more than a third of GOP primary voters say they would vote for “someone else” over Tillis in 2026, with a little under a third saying they’re still undecided.
The same report polled Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson as a potential primary challenger for Tillis and found that while Tillis led over Robinson, neither candidate comes close to the 50% mark and nearly a quarter of voters remain undecided.
The report was produced by an organization called “Campaign Viability Research.” The group’s website and social media accounts were recently created and it is unclear who is behind it. An adviser to Tillis did not respond to a request for comment.
J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said that Tillis is a senator that grassroots Republicans have generally always viewed with some degree of suspicion. In 2014, he faced a number of opponents and came away with less than 50% of the primary vote. He fended off a more serious primary challenge in 2020 by openly courting Donald Trump’s endorsement.
“You can tell he has this institutionalist and bipartisan streak, and that might be helpful in a general election, but not as much in a primary,” Coleman said. “That’s occasionally led him to be viewed as less pro-Trump than some Republicans would like.”
In Coleman’s view, Tillis is the most vulnerable Republican senator up for reelection in 2026. If Tillis were to lose in the primary to a right-wing challenger, that would likely make the seat even more vulnerable for Republicans, Coleman said. Coleman pointed to this year’s race for state superintendent public instruction, in which incumbent Catherine Truitt lost to far-right extremist Michele Morrow in the primary. Morrow ultimately lost the general election.
Of course, all of this remains hypothetical. It’s possible that, like in 2020, Tillis may cozy up to Trump in an attempt to win the president’s endorsement, giving him a hefty advantage in the primary. And while a significant portion of the GOP electorate may say they’d prefer “someone else” to Tillis, it’s possible that the right challenger never materializes, and Tillis wins the nomination anyway.
But despite how precarious Tillis’ situation may be, he shouldn’t be counted out.
“For all his vulnerabilities, he is a pretty savvy political operator as well. You know, he’s North Carolina’s senior senator, and he’s almost never led in a public poll, at least in the general election,” Coleman said.
Still, Tillis should tread carefully. Trump’s second presidency will be a test of the GOP’s loyalty, especially those who may not have been staunch Trump allies in the past, and it may be tempting for Tillis to fall in line. He should avoid that temptation, even if it puts his job at risk.
But Republicans should tread carefully, too. In a purple state like North Carolina, the candidates who emerge from GOP primaries don’t always hold statewide appeal. They learned that lesson a few weeks ago when Robinson lost by nearly 15 points in the gubernatorial election — a landslide by North Carolina standards — with many Trump voters even refusing to vote for him. If they want to win in 2026, Tillis may very well be their best shot.
