Don’t count out Michael Whatley | Opinion
On paper, Roy Cooper should be an overwhelming favorite to be North Carolina’s next U.S. senator.
He’s never lost an election, and left two terms as governor with a centrist reputation intact. In a midterm year, that should be more than enough for a Democrat to win.
And yet, the 2026 Senate race is shaping up to be a whole lot more competitive than it should.
Don’t count out Michael Whatley to pull off an upset.
The Republican National Committee chairman launched his U.S. Senate campaign Thursday with a plainspoken speech in his hometown of Gastonia, flanked by a cadre of local lawmakers and an American flag backdrop.
By modern standards, it was underproduced and easy to dismiss. But that would be a mistake.
Whatley has been the man behind the curtain in some of the GOP’s biggest wins in North Carolina. Now, with Trump’s endorsement and lawmakers from across the state lining up behind him, the party is paying him back.
The national party will spend heavily, and the Trump operation is eager to turn out every possible voter in a year where Senate control may hinge on North Carolina.
Voters like to imagine Senate races as contests between two compelling visions, two big personalities. In reality, they’re turnout tests. That’s where Whatley excels.
A different kind of candidate
Democrats argue that Trump forced out a viable incumbent in U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis and installed a weaker candidate in Whatley. The reality is more complicated.
Tillis had lost the energy of the party base, and Democrats were already planning to center their campaign around the Trump administration, regardless of who the nominee was.
Whatley enters with a different profile, and a united party behind him. North Carolina has voted for Trump three times. It hasn’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 2008. And in a recent Victory Insights poll, Whatley and Cooper are already statistically tied, before most voters even know who Whatley is.
Whatever you think of his ties to Trump, Whatley is far more stable and vetted than the candidates who’ve sunk Republican hopes elsewhere. He’s not Kari Lake, not Herschel Walker, not Dr. Oz. He’s a family man from Gastonia with a relentless grind.
A true toss-up
None of this makes Cooper an underdog. But it makes the race a true toss-up. Whatley still has to introduce himself to voters and weather a long general election campaign with little margin for error. But he doesn’t need to dazzle.
In federal elections, voters aren’t evaluating executive competence, they’re casting judgment on the direction of the country. Cooper has embraced the leftward drift of the Democratic Party, and will have to defend not just his own record — but the entire progressive brand.
North Carolina didn’t have a Senate race in 2018, the last midterm under Trump. Democrats did well that year, but they didn’t blow the doors off. They broke the GOP supermajority in Raleigh, but couldn’t pick up a single congressional seat. Even in a so-called “blue wave,” the state held steady.
One key variable: Trump’s popularity
That’s why this race may come down to a single variable: President Trump’s approval rating next fall. If the economy is strong and his numbers hold steady, Whatley’s path to victory becomes much clearer. If not, he’ll be dragging an anvil uphill.
Cooper remains a formidable candidate. But Whatley is entering the race with a united party, a proven infrastructure, and a clear mission. That alone makes him competitive.
Either way, this will be a nationalized race, fought precinct by precinct, with the kind of turnout operation Republicans have now run successfully in three straight presidential cycles.
If Trump is doing well next fall, expect to say “Senator Whatley.” If not, it’ll be a grind to the wire.
Write off Michael Whatley at your own risk.
Contributing columnist Andrew Dunn is the publisher of the Longleaf Politics newsletter, which offers thoughtful analysis of North Carolina politics and policy from a conservative perspective. He can be reached at andrew@longleafpol.com
This story was originally published July 31, 2025 at 5:32 PM.