How are NC voters feeling ahead of 2026? 3 takeaways from the latest poll | Opinion
The 2026 election is still pretty far away, but even polls conducted today affect how candidates and campaigns choose to behave moving forward.
A High Point University poll released this month assessed how North Carolinians feel about the direction of the country, as well as the leaders that represent them. Here are three takeaways from that poll:
1. Trump’s approval rating declines; Stein stays strong
The poll shows Trump’s approval rating at 39%, with a disapproval rating of 49%. That continues a slow but steady drop in support for Trump in North Carolina. The same poll conducted in October had Trump’s approval rating at 40%, and in September, Trump’s approval rating was 41%. It’s also a considerable drop-off from a year ago, when 50% of the state voted for Trump.
North Carolinians feel a little differently about leaders closer to home. Compared to the rest of the country, they’re more pessimistic about the direction their state is heading in, yet they view their governor more favorably than people in other states do. Gov. Josh Stein’s approval rating is 45%, with only 20% expressing disapproval. That’s a strong number considering voters don’t feel great about the state or country as a whole.
So if North Carolinians feel good about their governor, who is it that’s making them unhappy?
2. Support for Republicans is falling as well
Support for Republicans has dropped as well, the poll showed, especially at the federal level. When asked about races for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% of respondents said they are more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, and 42% said they are more likely to vote for the Republican. For the U.S. Senate, Democrats had an even bigger edge of five percentage points.
October’s poll showed support for Democratic and Republican congressional candidates was evenly split, and in September’s poll, 40% of respondents said they’d vote for the Republican for Congress, while 37% said they’d vote for the Democrat.
That’s consistent with what we’re seeing nationally, and if this trend holds, Republicans will have a legitimate reason to be concerned come 2026. Democrats are already feeling confident, having expanded the list of GOP-held congressional seats they’re targeting in North Carolina in 2026.
3. Warning signs for Democrats
The poll also has warning signs for Democrats on key issues, particularly immigration. Despite their low approval of Trump in general, North Carolinians gave the president higher marks on border security, national security and law enforcement.
That’s despite controversial moves by the Trump administration to send the National Guard and U.S. Border Patrol into cities against their wishes. Of course, the issue may still be useful for boosting Democratic turnout in cities like Raleigh and Charlotte, which have been directly affected by Trump’s raids. But overall and especially in more rural areas, there are better issues for Democrats to focus on in their campaigns.
Broadly speaking, Democrats will likely have more success with what has already worked for them across the country: a focus on kitchen-table issues like affordability. North Carolinians aren’t too happy with how Trump is handling economic issues, the poll found. Just 27% of people are happy with how he’s handling inflation, 35% approve of his handling of the economy in general and only 31% approve of his tariffs. Centering campaigns around those issues has helped Democrats perform remarkably well in recent elections across the country, even in deeply red areas.
