The three midterm races all North Carolinians should watch in 2026 | Opinion
Candidate filing for the 2026 election is well underway in North Carolina, teeing up races that voters will see on the ballot beginning in March. In some cases, it’s answered longstanding questions about who’s running and where, and in others, it’s made highly anticipated contests official.
The most expensive and high-profile race will by far be the U.S. Senate contest, which is expected to be a matchup between Roy Cooper and Michael Whatley. But there are races further down the ballot worthy of attention, too. Here are three to watch next year:
Congress
Once again, the most competitive congressional race is likely to be in northeastern North Carolina, where U.S. Rep. Don Davis will run for reelection. That district was a toss-up that slightly favored Democrats in 2024, but the most recent round of gerrymandering attempted to draw Davis out of the district and tilt it in the GOP’s direction. Davis technically lives in the 3rd Congressional District now, and there was speculation about which district he would choose to run in. He will seek reelection in the 1st District, which he has represented since 2022.
Davis is likely to face state Sen. Bobby Hanig in the general election. The newly redrawn district favors Republicans, but only by about six points, so it will be an interesting test of voter sentiment in a midterm election that’s expected to favor Democrats by a decent margin. It may help, too, that Davis is a moderate Democrat who can appeal to more conservative voters. He is one of just 13 congressional Democrats who won a district that Donald Trump carried in 2024, and he’s rated one of the most bipartisan members of Congress. In any other year, this would be a steep uphill battle for Democrats, but in 2026, the district may still be in reach.
Also worth noting: National Democrats announced last week they are targeting two GOP-held congressional seats they believe are vulnerable in 2026: the 3rd District, currently held by Greg Murphy, and the 11th District, currently held by Chuck Edwards.
NC Supreme Court
This race is among the most consequential on the ballot. N.C. Supreme Court Justice Anita Earls, a Democrat, is running for reelection against former GOP lawmaker Sarah Stevens. Since Republicans flipped the court in 2022, Earls has been one of just two Democrats on the bench, and Republicans have wielded the power of their majority to issue consequential decisions on voting rights, gerrymandering and other serious matters.
While judicial races are often some of the most important on the ballot, they rarely capture the attention of voters, who tend to cast their votes simply along partisan lines. While that makes it difficult to convey to voters the importance of the race, it also means that Democrats may have a better chance of winning if they can successfully mobilize voters in other races.
Democrats won’t be able to take back control of the court this year, of course, but keeping this seat is crucial if they want to improve their chances of regaining a majority in 2028, when three Republican justices will be up for reelection. Losing this race would make it more difficult for Democrats to chip away at the court’s Republican majority in future election cycles.
Berger vs. Page
One of the biggest primaries in the state is one that just a fraction of voters will see on their ballot. Senate leader Phil Berger, arguably the most powerful politician in North Carolina, faces a serious challenge from longtime Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page, who is branding himself as a Raleigh outsider and a more conservative alternative to Berger.
Berger only represents about 100,000 voters, but his leadership has consequences for the entire state, and if he loses, it could fundamentally alter power dynamics in state politics. Berger has served as Senate leader since Republicans gained a majority in the legislature in 2011, and he wields significant influence over what does and doesn’t become law. Berger hasn’t had a serious primary threat in more than two decades, and this race has put him in the rare position of having to defend himself and his record. It’s not particularly common for legislative races to have such heated primaries in general, which makes it a fascinating case study for any political observer.
The race is so high-profile that even President Donald Trump weighed in on it last week with an endorsement of Berger and a plea for Page to drop out of the race and work for him in D.C. instead. (Page declined.) Expect the race to heat up even more moving forward.
