I’m watching two races as a North Carolina conservative in 2026 | Opinion

North Carolina politics is never boring, but 2026 is shaping up to be unusually consequential.

In most election years, you circle November and work backward. Whatever drama is unfolding in Washington ends up tinting everything else down the ballot.

But in 2026, the decision that will likely shape the entire year will be made far from the nation’s capitol, and long before November. It will happen in a low-turnout Republican primary in a rural corner of North Carolina, where something like 20,000 voters will decide the balance of political power across the state.

Their verdict will shape everything that comes after it: how the legislature functions, whether a budget gets done, and how aggressively politicians start positioning themselves for what comes next.

If you want a quiet year, you picked the wrong state. Here’s what I’ll be watching.

1) The Berger–Page race and the future of the Senate machine

The vote totals in this primary race will be small, but the stakes could not be higher.

On one side is Phil Berger, the Senate president pro tem and the most consequential Republican in North Carolina government for going on a decade. On the other is Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page, a primary challenger with the kind of local credibility that can’t be bought and the kind of momentum that makes Raleigh nervous.

Page heads into 2026 having already absorbed a serious barrage of attack ads, still sitting in the lead. The question isn’t whether the attacks continue; they will.

The question is whether Berger’s allies, inside and outside the district, can bring enough money and institutional force to preserve the power structure. Or does the smell of blood in the water get strong enough that Page stops being a curiosity and starts being a cause?

Right now, the sheriff doesn’t appear to have the backing of major donors. That’s not an accident. In politics, money follows power, and Berger has both in abundance.

Already, though, Berger’s opponents in Raleigh have grown bolder, sensing vulnerability. If Page keeps looking durable, donors will start hedging. Lawmakers will start repositioning, and ambitious people will start adapting to a post-Berger era. That’s how a challenge can become a stampede.

If Berger loses, it’s hard to understate the ripple effects. A weakened Berger becomes a lame duck with options, none of them particularly calming. He could decide he’s done, retire early, and head home. Or he could decide that if his time is running out, he might as well use whatever leverage he has left to jam priorities through and make the building feel it.

If Berger wins, the lesson in Raleigh will be that the machine still works. Expect consolidation — and payback. Leaders who survive near-death experiences don’t usually emerge gentler. They come out more disciplined, more determined, and less forgiving.

Either way, the Berger–Page primary will tell you what kind of Republican Party North Carolina is about to have, and what kind of legislature we’re about to live with for the rest of 2026.

2) The U.S. Senate race: Big stage, low voltage

For the better part of a year, North Carolina has been bracing for a high-stakes, big-dollar U.S. Senate race. The kind that floods the airwaves, nationalizes everything, and turns the state into a political circus.

That may still be the plan on paper. It just may not be how it ends.

Michelle Morrow’s entry into the Republican primary changes the geometry in a pretty straightforward way. She will draw attention, but she will also split the restless grassroots vote and make Michael Whatley’s path to the nomination easier.

Then you get to the general election, where the marquee race might not stay the main event.

On the Democratic side, former Gov. Roy Cooper starts with every advantage. In a cycle where the national environment is likely to drift blue, he doesn’t need to do much except avoid mistakes. That’s where Cooper excels.

If it becomes clear by late summer that Cooper is in control and the race isn’t tightening, don’t be surprised if the National Republican Senatorial Committee starts to triage. They will move money to places where it can change the outcome, even if North Carolina was supposed to be a marquee fight. The NRSC doesn’t do charity. If they see Ohio, Maine, and Georgia as higher leverage, they will move money accordingly.

So yes, it’s a huge race. But it’s increasingly plausible that by the end of 2026, it feels less like a blockbuster and more like a missed opportunity, with the national money and national attention drifting elsewhere.

The bottom line

After March, the rest of 2026 is mostly downstream. Republicans will be dealing with a national environment that could make President Donald Trump less of an asset. But even in a year that tilts blue at the top, don’t assume Republicans lose their grip on Raleigh. North Carolina rarely works that cleanly.

The only safe prediction is that the state will end the year with the same thing it started with — high stakes, hard choices, and nobody getting everything they want.

Contributing columnist Andrew Dunn is the publisher of the Longleaf Politics newsletter, which offers thoughtful analysis of North Carolina politics and policy from a conservative perspective. He can be reached at andrew@longleafpol.com.