What we learned about the midterms from 3 new North Carolina polls | Opinion
Three new polls make it even more clear that patterns are emerging in North Carolina as we head toward the 2026 midterms: Roy Cooper has an advantage in the U.S. Senate race, Donald Trump is unpopular, and Democrats may have a very good year.
The polls — conducted by Elon University, Catawba College and Quantus Insights — are consistent with past polling that has had similar findings. The trends are similar every time, even if the exact numbers vary.
But that’s not the only thing we learned. Here are three more takeaways from the three latest polls:
Voters don’t know Whatley
Cooper’s consistent polling lead in the Senate race probably has a lot to do with the fact that many voters don’t know who his opponent is. In the Catawba-YouGov poll, 44% of respondents said they are unfamiliar with Michael Whatley. In the Elon poll, 64% of voters said they know little to nothing about Whatley, while only 27% said the same about Cooper.
Of those who are familiar with Whatley and Cooper, Cooper has an edge in favorability. More voters view Cooper favorably than unfavorably, but Whatley is underwater. The Elon poll found that 25% of registered voters viewed Whatley favorably and 34% unfavorably. A plurality of 41% hold a neutral opinion. Compare that to Cooper, whose favorable and unfavorable numbers are 48% and 34%, respectively.
Trump might drag Republicans down
In past years, Republican candidates have been rewarded at the ballot box by tying themselves to Trump. This year, they might be punished for it. The president’s approval rating has fallen sharply since he took office, and it appears to be dropping further. The Catawba poll has Trump’s approval rating at its lowest level since last March, at 42%. The Elon poll has Trump’s approval rating at 35%, with 55% disapproving. The Quantus poll places his approval rating at 43%, with 54% disapproving.
Voters aren’t so keen on some of Trump’s policy decisions, either. More than half of respondents said the national economy has gotten worse since Trump took office last year, and a majority also reported experiencing a negative impact from the Trump administration’s tariffs on goods imported from other countries, according to the Elon poll. On health care, a large majority said they are “very” or “somewhat” concerned about federal health care spending cuts making it more difficult to get the care they need. Every one of these numbers is worrisome to Republicans in races across North Carolina. Trump is not on the ballot this fall, but voters will find a place to express their displeasure, and it will likely be directed at members of his party. If this continues, it will make it tougher for Republicans to regain the momentum they’ve lost.
Not all races are created equal
But that doesn’t mean it’s a guaranteed blowout. While Cooper has a pretty wide lead in the Senate race, things are more competitive further down the ballot.
In the Catawba-YouGov poll, Democrats had a five-point advantage on a generic U.S. House ballot. That’s a solid edge, but it may not be enough to flip gerrymandered districts currently held by Republicans. In the Quantus poll, Democrats have just a 1.4-point lead on the generic U.S. House ballot. This suggests that “the broader environment is competitive and still unsettled,” and “the Senate race is benefiting from candidate-specific strength that has not yet fully translated to the congressional level,” the Quantus pollsters noted. It’s yet another reminder that despite the momentum in Democrats’ favor, North Carolina is still a battleground state, and that’s not changing anytime soon.
The story is the same in the state legislature. According to the Catawba-YouGov poll, 43% of voters support Democrats and 36% support Republicans for both chambers of the state legislature. In the Elon poll, 41% of respondents wanted Democrats to control the state legislature after the 2026 elections. While this could help Democrats break Republican supermajorities, gerrymandering makes it unlikely that Democrats will win majorities in either chamber, The News & Observer reported. These numbers are most concerning for Republicans in toss-up districts or districts that just slightly favor Republicans.
Deputy Opinion Editor Paige Masten is covering politics and the 2026 elections for The Charlotte Observer and The News & Observer.
