Trump’s approval is tanking in some of NC’s reddest congressional districts | Opinion
New data shows that President Donald Trump’s approval rating is underwater in more than 100 congressional districts currently represented by Republicans — several of which are in North Carolina.
There are 10 congressional districts in North Carolina occupied by Republicans, and the data, analyzed and published by data journalist G. Elliott Morris, shows Trump has an approval rating below 50% in seven of them. All of those districts voted for Trump by double-digit margins in 2024.
What the data says
13th Congressional District: Trump won this central North Carolina district, which is currently represented by U.S. Rep. Brad Knott, by 16 points in 2024. Trump’s net approval in this district is -12.
7th Congressional District: This district stretches roughly from Wilmington to Fayetteville, and the incumbent is U.S. Rep. David Rouzer. Trump’s 2024 margin was 14 points, but his current net approval is -9.
9th Congressional District: U.S. Rep. Richard Hudson’s district stretches from the edge of the Triad into the Sandhills. Trump’s net approval in this district is -7 after winning it by 16 points in 2024.
11th Congressional District: U.S. Rep. Chuck Edwards represents this western North Carolina district, which Trump won by 10 points in 2024. The president’s net approval is now -5.
14th Congressional District: This district contains part of Mecklenburg County and counties to the west. The incumbent is U.S. Rep. Tim Moore. After winning the district by 15 points in 2024, Trump’s net approval is now -4.
3rd Congressional District: Currently represented by U.S. Rep. Greg Murphy, Trump won this coastal North Carolina district by 22 points in 2024. His current net approval there is -4.
(Note: This district became slightly less conservative when Republicans drew new congressional maps this year. Trump would have carried the new 3rd District by 14 points.)
8th Congressional District: U.S. Rep. Mark Harris represents this district which encompasses most of the southern Piedmont. It favored Trump by 19 points in 2024, but his net approval is currently -4.
2026 implications
Most congressional districts in North Carolina are gerrymandered severely enough that only the strongest blue wave could have a fighting chance of flipping them. But Democrats believe two Republican incumbents could be vulnerable this cycle: Murphy (NC-03) and Edwards (NC-11). According to this data, though, there are several other congressional districts in North Carolina where Trump appears to be more unpopular.
Does that mean Democrats are targeting the wrong districts?
Not necessarily. because just because Trump is underwater, that doesn’t mean voters will give the nod to a Democrat in their district. It’s important to note that Trump’s 2024 margin is not necessarily reflective of how heavily the district favors Republicans in general. The 2024 cycle was a great year for Republicans, and they overperformed. According to the Cook Partisan Index, the baseline GOP advantage in these districts is closer to 10 points. The least red seats are in fact held by Edwards and Murphy; those districts favor Republicans by five and six points, respectively.
That means, in those districts, Democrats only need to overperform by five or six percentage points to flip the seat. It’ll still be a challenge, but in this midterm cycle, it’s well within the realm of possibility. Democrats have overperformed by much higher margins — and in much redder areas — in special elections across the country so far.
Trump’s net approval may be lower in Knott’s district, for example, but that district still favors Republicans by nine points, so flipping it would be a much more challenging feat. These districts are designed to be as unresponsive as possible to swings in public opinion, and importantly, there’s also no guarantee that Republican-leaning voters who are unhappy with Trump will vote for a Democrat to represent them in Congress. On the other hand, there’s also a chance that some frustrated Republicans may not feel motivated to vote in November at all. As we’ve seen in special elections across the country, Democrats have beat Republicans in some deeper red districts. Even an above-average showing from Democrats in redder districts could still benefit them in statewide races — picking up a few votes here and there can make all the difference in a close election.
Deputy Opinion Editor Paige Masten is covering politics and the 2026 elections for The Charlotte Observer and The News & Observer.
