What polls and fundraising can — and can’t — tell us about the midterms in NC | Opinion
We all see the headlines: Democrats are ahead in polls. Democrats raise more money than their Republican opponents.
That sounds like great news for Democrats and bad news for Republicans in North Carolina. But past elections have taught us that the final vote count can be much different than what polls predicted, and the candidate who raises the most money doesn’t always win.
So how reliable are these numbers, especially for an election that’s still six months away? And how much should we really be reading into them — if at all?
The truth about polls
Polls are certainly no crystal ball, but they do give us a temperature check, Western Carolina University political science professor Chris Cooper said.
“Right now, I think the message is pretty clear, it’s going to be a good year for Democrats,” Cooper said. “What we don’t know is how good of a year for Democrats, and no amount of polling is going to reveal that, not because the polls aren’t good or accurate, but because it’s the middle of April.”
The topline numbers in a poll are what gets the most attention, but it’s not necessarily what’s most important. More insightful information can be found in the crosstabs, which break down results by specific subgroups and demographics. It can be particularly useful to look at how independent voters are breaking, as that can be the clincher in a close race.
It’s also important to note whether the poll is an outlier, or part of a larger pattern. Polling is more reliable if different polls are yielding similar results, because an outlier can be chalked up to one bad sample. If a candidate is leading consistently in the polls, and it’s by a decent margin, that’s a better signal than a race that goes back-and-forth or polls that are neck-and-neck.
A positive sign for Democrats in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race is that former Gov. Roy Cooper has reached the 50% threshold in several polls thus far. Cooper’s strong showing is why some have rated North Carolina the most likely to flip in November. Candidates in competitive races have won with a smaller share of the vote.
That ought to give his campaign more confidence than others further down the ballot. In most other races, Democrats are tied with or have only a slight lead over Republicans. That includes races for the N.C. Supreme Court, which is virtually tied, and the state legislature, where Democrats lead by a few points on the generic ballot.
What about fundraising?
A candidate rarely wins an election without ever leading in the polls, but there are quite a few examples of a candidate winning an election despite being outspent by their opponent.
“The candidate with the most money doesn’t always win,” Chris Cooper said. “If anybody doubts that, they can call Phil Berger and ask, or call Sam Page and ask, but it does help, and it’s maybe the best indication we have of viability.”
Whether we like it or not, it takes a lot of money to win an election, particularly in statewide elections or congressional races, and it can be even more expensive to defeat an incumbent. That’s where the viability aspect comes in. A congressional candidate that has hardly raised any money at all is not likely to win an election, especially if the odds are already stacked against them. But if a candidate is raking in the cash, that indicates momentum. Not only does it show that the candidate can hold their own with advertising and staffing, it’s also a sign that donors, both big and small, think that campaign is worth the investment.
The 11th Congressional District is a good example of this, Chris Cooper said. Jamie Ager, the Democratic candidate, has raised $1.6 million compared to the roughly $785,000 raised by incumbent Chuck Edwards. National Democrats have singled out the race as a target and have funneled resources in Ager’s direction.
“That doesn’t mean that Jamie Ager is going to win or that Jamie Ager is favored,” Chris Cooper said, “but what it does mean is that he’s a viable candidate, and he has been able to draw support in a way that others haven’t. So the donor class is convinced that this might be winnable for the Democrats.”
Fundraising reports also don’t account for spending by outside groups, which is also important to winning a race. There’s a limit to how much money individuals can contribute to a campaign, but they can contribute unlimited amounts to dark money groups that can advertise and campaign in support of a candidate. In the Berger-Page race, Page’s campaign raised only $80,000, while Berger raised 34 times as much. But outside groups spent nearly $1 million to boost Page. That still dwarfs the millions spent on Berger’s behalf, but it helped make Page competitive in advertising and other media spending.
In the U.S. Senate race, outside spending will also be a factor. While Republican Michael Whatley has raised significantly less than Cooper so far, Republican groups have already committed to spending tens of millions of dollars on Whatley’s behalf.
While polls and fundraising reports can be helpful, the main takeaway is this: none of it is an exact science, and truthfully, the only poll that really matters is the one on Election Day. Even Roy Cooper himself has expressed caution, saying in a recent TV appearance that “Democrats are often ahead until they’re not,” because incumbent U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis never had a statistical lead in public polling in either of the two elections he won. Tillis also raised and spent less money than his opponent in 2020.
So if you’re looking for a crystal ball to tell you what’s going to happen in November, you’re not going to find one. But that doesn’t mean these numbers don’t matter. Candidates need a lot of money to win an election, and it’s a lot harder to raise that money if the polls are saying they’re going to lose. Polls and fundraising reports don’t tell us everything, but they do tell us a lot, which is why people put so much stock into them.
Deputy Opinion Editor Paige Masten is covering politics and the 2026 elections for The Charlotte Observer and The News & Observer.
