NC just changed important language that measures our COVID-19 progress. What’s going on?

If you’re an avid follower of North Carolina’s coronavirus data — we know you’re out there — you may have noticed a critical change in language involving one of the benchmarks the Department of Health and Human Services uses to measure how well our state is slowing the spread of COVID-19.

If you’re a conspiracy lover who thinks that change might be nefarious, you’re probably going to be disappointed.

The language change involves hospitalizations — specifically the number of people currently hospitalized in North Carolina with COVID-19. It’s a metric that raised at least a few eyebrows last week when N.C. Gov. Roy Cooper announced that the state would move to Phase 1 of his three-part reopening plan. At that announcement, DHHS Secretary Mandy Cohen laid out the data behind the decision, including that the number of current hospitalizations had “leveled.”

That may have been a surprise to those who frequent the DHHS COVID-19 dashboard, which says the criteria for progress on hospitalizations is as follows: “Is North Carolina seeing a 14-day downward trajectory in the number of people currently hospitalized?“ Nothing about leveling there. State lawmakers and NC counties providing regular COVID-19 updates to constituents have used the same language, with no reference to leveling, or linked to the DHHS dashboard.

But as of late last week, DHHS added a new clause to the end of the “14-day downward trajectory” sentence - “or sustained leveling in the number of people currently hospitalized.” Was someone sneaking in new language that helps justify the move to Phase 1 or future phases?

Sorry conspiracists, but no. Neither the language nor the criteria is new. The governor cited it last month when he announced his reopening plan, a spokesperson told the Editorial Board in an email; the “sustained leveling” language on hospitalizations is explicitly stated in an April 23 press release. The DHHS dashboard now has it, too, for hospitalizations and other metrics.

There’s still some dispute, however, over whether North Carolina had achieved sustained leveling in hospitalizations when the governor announced the move to Phase 1 last week. The DHHS chart on hospitalizations that day showed a steady increase over time, not a leveling, but that may be moot now. In the week since the governor’s announcement, the trajectory of current hospitalizations has not only leveled, but gone down.

Also encouraging: North Carolina is seeing a downward trajectory in two other benchmarks - COVID-like illnesses and percentage of positive COVID-19 tests. The state hasn’t yet seen a downward trajectory in new cases as of Monday, but the other metrics suggest that could be coming in the near future, so long as the move to Phase 1 doesn’t lead to a regression. Whatever language you use, we hope North Carolina is finally turning a corner.

This story was originally published May 11, 2020 at 2:14 PM.