NC’s coronavirus numbers are getting worse. What can the governor do about it?

North Carolina’s COVID-19 numbers have taken a troubling turn recently. Infections hit new daily highs on three consecutive days last week, and those can’t be explained away by an increase in testing. The percentage of positive tests also rose to 10 percent over the weekend, and COVID-19 hospitalizations have jumped to their highest levels. For now, N.C. hospitals have capacity to handle the coronavirus caseload, but given some new strains on systems in other states, there’s reason for at least a little concern here.

It’s too early to draw firm conclusions about how Phases 1 and 2 of reopening have contributed to our COVID-19 regression, but common sense and the timing of the rise give strong reason to believe that our freedom to shop, dine and congregate has contributed. What’s clear is that we’re moving in the wrong direction, and we’re still days and weeks away from learning whether packed George Floyd protests throughout the state might make things worse.

What can Gov. Roy Cooper do about it? Realistically, not much at the moment.

The governor certainly can continue to hold off on the parts of Phase 2 he paused last month - including reopening gyms and fitness centers - although he should address an inconsistency in his orders that allows breweries, but not bars, to safely seat customers outside. Republicans pounced on the discrepancy last week by passing a bill that would give bars that lifeline, but the bill also stripped Cooper of some power to issue future restrictions. The governor rightly issued a veto, but he said Monday he’s considering a “Phase 2.5” that opens more businesses. He also said, however: “I’d rather open schools than bars.”

What’s more certain right now is that governor won’t be issuing new restrictions on businesses or individuals. Cooper, like most governors, has used up his political capital with two months of stay-at-home limitations. Those restrictions did the job they were supposed to do - they changed behavior and flattened the curve, which helped avoid a hospital crunch and likely saved lives. But Cooper has faced growing resistance and some open defiance, not only from some Republican lawmakers looking for political gain, but also from businesses and individuals facing genuine financial distress. Closing businesses again is not a pragmatic option for Cooper unless a spike in infections threaten hospitals, as has begun to happen in a few states. “We want to avoid going backward,” Cooper said Monday.

The best the governor can do at this point is mitigation. Continue to build testing capacity and grow the roster of contract tracers far beyond the goal of 500. Be cautious about loosening restrictions on businesses and gatherings. Target geographic hotspots and precise outbreaks such as in long-term care facilities with action that includes mass testing and tracing to help contain spread. Encourage people to remain vigilant about their behavior.

It’s no mistake that the governor and Department of Health and Human Services secretary Mandy Cohen emphasized that behavior Monday at a COVID-19 briefing. The reality is that the burden of COVID-19 is not so much on governors now, but on a public that wants to make its own choices. And whether it’s for economic reasons or political leanings, Americans are more willing than in March to tolerate more risk and consequences. The result is that we’re flattening the curve in a different way; instead of the sharp downward slope we hoped for, we likely face a more sustained COVID-19 presence. Unless and until a vaccine comes to rescue us, we’re in for longer, harder ride together.

This story was originally published June 8, 2020 at 12:05 PM.