July Harvard Caps / Harris Poll: Trump Approval Sees No Change at 42% with Inflation Still Top Concern
CONGRESSIONAL HORSERACE TIED AT 50-50
73% OF VOTERS SUPPORT U.S. MILITARY AND ECONOMIC FORCE IF IRAN DOES NOT GIVE UP CONTROL OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
78% OF VOTERS FAVOR FREE ENTERPRISE OVER SOCIALISM BUT A MAJORITY HOLDS THE MISCONCEPTION THAT RIGHTS, BUSINESS, AND HOME OWNERSHIP ARE GUARANTEED UNDER SOCIALISM
50% OF VOTERS BELIEVE PRICE INCREASES CAUSED BY TENSIONS WITH IRAN WILL BE SHORT-TERM, AN 8-PT. IMPROVEMENT FROM MAY
69% OF VOTERS SUPPORT MEDICARE FOR ALL
82% OF VOTERS SAY AI HAS SOCIAL DANGERS, CITING JOB LOSS AND POWER USAGE AS TOP CONCERNS
TWO-THIRDS OF VOTERS SAY THE U.S. SHOULD SLOW DOWN ON AI DEVELOPMENT, WITH 53% MORE LIEKLY TO SUPPORT CANDIDATES WHO FAVOR A SLOWDOWN
74% OF VOTERS ARE PROUD TO BE AN AMERICAN TODAY, WITH THREE-QUARTERS OF AMERICANS SAYING THEY ARE LIVING OR WILL ACHIEVE THE AMERICAN DREAM
NEW YORK AND CAMBRIDGE, MA / ACCESS Newswire / July 14, 2026 / Stagwell (NASDAQ:STGW) today released the results of the July Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.
President Donald Trump's approval rating is at 42%. His job approval is highest on immigration (49%) and fighting crime (47%); and lowest on handling inflation (35%) and managing the Iran conflict (38%). This month's poll also covered public opinion on the economy, midterms, socialism, healthcare, AI, the Supreme Court, sentiments toward America and American identity, and conflicts in the Middle East. Download the key results here.
"Trump's approval continues to be flat as voters want to see an end to inflation," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "Meanwhile, on the country's 250th anniversary, most voters are proud to be American, see freedom as a defining value, and favor free enterprise - but they hold misconceptions that those rights are guaranteed under socialism."
ECONOMY AND INFLATION REMAIN TOP PRIORITIES FOR VOTERS
35% of voters say the U.S. is on the right track, and 33% say the same about the U.S. economy.
Of key institutions, voters have the most favorable view of the U.S. military (+58 net favorable) and the United States (+56), and the least favorable view of communism (-55), and Iran (-51).
Inflation and the economy remain voters' top concerns, though inflation ticked down in salience (-4 pts., May 2026) as did the U.S.-Iran conflict (-4) and the federal budget deficit (-3). Race relations ticked up in salience (+3).
MORE VOTERS BELIEVE IRAN-INDUCED INFLATION IS TEMPORARY BUT STILL THINK IT IS ABOVE 3 PERCENT
50% of voters say the economy is better today than it was when Biden was president (+6).
50% of voters believe price increases caused by tensions with Iran will be short-term and come back down quickly (+8).
67% of voters say the U.S. should prioritize energy independence to avoid global price shocks (-6).
58% of voters believe the economy is shrinking, while 77% of voters think inflation is above 3 percent a year.
MAJORITY OF TRUMP POLICIES CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG SUPPORT INCLUDING VOTER ID REQUIREMENTS AMONG THE MOST SUPPORTED
11 out of 13 key Trump policy positions continue to see majority support. His most popular policies are lowering prescription drug prices (86% support), deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes (79%), and requiring proof of citizenship to vote (70%).
Trump's least popular policy positions include placing a 15% tariff on imports from all countries (39%), eliminating mail-in voting (49%), and deporting all illegal immigrants (55%).
CONGRESSIONAL HORSERACE AT A TIE WITH HARRIS AND VANCE LOSING GROUND BUT STILL THE FRONTRUNNERS FOR 2028 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
70% of voters say they are planning to vote in the upcoming 2026 Congressional midterm elections (-3, May 2026; Democrats: 63%; Republicans: 59%; Independents: 37%)
The horserace is split 50-50 among general voters, with Democrats holding a 2-pt. lead among likely midterm voters.
68% of voters have thought about the upcoming 2028 presidential election.
Kamala Harris (-7) and J.D. Vance (-3) remain the most favored candidates for president among voters from their respective parties.
MOST VOTERS FAVOR FREE ENTERPRISE OVER SOCIALISM AND DID NOT BELIEVE GRAHAM PLATNER WAS A QUALIFIED CANDIDATE
78% of voters say we are better off with free enterprise instead of socialism. 83% say the future of the country should continue to be a mix of capitalism with social welfare programs rather than a fully socialist system, including a majority across political parties.
Large majorities of voters prefer a system of government where people can start their own businesses (88%), own homes (88%), earn money based on merit and work (88%), and practice their freedom of speech and religion rights as citizens without them being taken away (77%).
79% of voters personally feel they live in a country that rewards hard work with opportunity.
A majority of voters believe that under socialism, people can own homes (60%), businesses (57%), and practice freedom of religion and speech rights (59%).
62% of voters think socialism in other countries has mostly devolved into harsh dictatorships (Democrats: 51%; Republicans: 68%; Independents: 65%).
66% of voters believe Graham Platner was an unqualified candidate for the U.S. Senate, including a majority across political parties.
74% of voters believe supporting candidates with Nazi tattoos is evidence of antisemitism.
MAJORITY OF VOTERS SUPPORT MEDICARE FOR ALL DESPITE BEING SATISFIED WITH THEIR OWN COVERAGE RIGHT NOW
69% of voters support Medicare for All, including a majority across political parties.
58% of voters believe all healthcare is paid for by the government under Medicare for All but 57% believe private insurers would still exist.
42% of voters believe medical care will get worse if the government pays for health insurance, while 38% say it will improve.
58% of voters say the current Medicare system is working, and 55% say the same about Medicaid.
78% of voters approve of Medicare Advantage accounts.
72% of voters say they are personally happy with their coverage, including a majority across political parties.
MORE THAN HALF OF AMERICANS USE AI DAILY BUT MANY ARE CONCERNED ABOUT NEGATIVE SOCIAL IMPACTS, CALLING FOR A SLOWDOWN IN AI DEVELOPMENT
57% of voters say they personally use AI, with 56% of AI users using it daily.
Voters are split 50-50 on whether they find AI amazing, but 67% say we need to slow down the rush on AI, including a majority across political parties. 68% of voters say the U.S. should slow down AI development until there are stronger safeguards in place.
60% of voters say AI is a huge advancement.
57% say it is more likely AI will degrade society and create mass unemployment than create added value and productivity. Job loss (41%) and power usage (30%) are viewed as the primary dangers.
56% of employed voters believe their employment is currently not at risk from AI and automation.
62% of voters say data centers use too much energy and water and provide too few benefits to local communities, including a majority across political parties.
53% of voters say they would oppose a data center in their own neighborhood (Support: 25%), and the same share say such a facility should not be allowed near them even if the company provides local jobs, benefits, and protections.
53% of voters, a plurality, say they are more likely to support a candidate who supports slowing down on AI development (No impact: 31%; Less likely: 15%).
VOTERS TRUST SUPREME COURT TO UPHOLD THE CONSTITUTION EVEN WHEN THEY DON'T FAVOR ITS DECISIONS
79% of voters say the Supreme Court should defend the Constitution regardless of public opinion.
66% of voters favor the Supreme Court's decision to uphold birthright citizenship (Democrats: 83%; Republicans: 48%; Independents: 68%). 67% believe it followed the Constitution and law, including a majority across political parties.
63% of voters favor the ruling that states should decide their own mail-in ballot rules.
52% of voters favor the ruling that the President may hire and fire commissioners to agencies at will, with 57% believing it followed the law.
65% of voters favor the ruling that the Federal Reserve is an exception to general rule and members can only be removed for cause.
51% of voters oppose the ruling that state legislatures are allowed to redraw districts, with 57% believing it followed the law. 76% of voters favor the ruling that race cannot be taken into account when making congressional districts.
MOST VOTERS PROUD TO BE AMERICAN TODAY, CHAMPIONING FREEDOM AS A DEFINING VALUE AND SOURCE OF PRIDE
74% of voters are proud to be an American today, including a majority across political parties.
Freedom (75%) and peace (59%) are the most defining American values for voters across political party lines. Views differ on the importance of equality, democracy, patriotism, and diversity as American values.
Freedom and rights (69%) is the strongest source of American pride among voters, with democracy (47%) as the second-highest ranking quality.
Voters say healthcare costs (52%), gun violence (48%), and lack of affordable housing (46%) are the top three worst parts about living in America.
75% of voters believe they are living or will achieve the American Dream, including a majority across political parties.
51% of voters believe America should be proud of where it is as a country today. But 61% believe America's best days are ahead (Democrats: 50%; Republicans: 75%: Independents: 56%).
67% of voters say the U.S. is the greatest country in the world, including a majority across political parties.
U.S.-IRAN MOU VIEWED AS A WIN FOR AMERICA BUT A MAJORITY BELIEVES IRAN IS IN VIOLATION OF THE TERMS
69% of voters say they are following developments in the U.S., Israel, and Iran conflict closely, including a majority across political parties and age groups. 50% have heard of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed on June 17.
65% of voters believe the terms of the MOU are better for the U.S., with 71% viewing it as about the same or better than the 2015 Iran Deal.
70% of voters believe Iranians are working to buy time, not serious with their negotiations. 66% believe they are in violation of the terms in the MOU.
68% of voters say Iran should not be allowed to control the Strait of Hormuz. 73% say the U.S. should resume use of force, sanctions, and blockades if Iran does not give up control of the Strait.
61% of voters say U.S. military response to Iran firing on commercial ships was justified, including a majority across political parties. 64% believe the U.S. has the upper hand in negotiations.
51% of voters oppose Trump's handling of the Iran conflict so far. 41%, a plurality, say his handling of the conflict makes them more likely to vote Democrat in the upcoming midterm elections (+2).
MAJORITY OF VOTERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISRAEL OVER HAMAS; BELIEVE TERRORIST GROUPS ARE ACTIVELY TRYING TO DESTROY IT
73% of voters continue to support Israel over Hamas.
77% of voters believe there are terrorist groups on the borders of Israel today, including a majority across political parties and age groups. 43%, a plurality, believe the groups are trying to destroy Israel.
70% of voters say Hezbollah should be required to disarm as part of a long-term peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon.
76% of voters say Israel has a right to exist as the Jewish homeland, and 56% believe Israel should be defined as a Jewish state.
Israel is viewed most favorably among key Middle East countries (49%), while Iran is viewed least favorably (54%).
The July Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on July 11-12, 2026, among 1,776 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX.
About The Harris Poll & HarrisX
The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.
HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.
Contact:
Carrie Hsu
pr@stagwellglobal.com
SOURCE: Stagwell
This story was originally published July 14, 2026 at 5:22 PM with the headline "July Harvard Caps / Harris Poll: Trump Approval Sees No Change at 42% with Inflation Still Top Concern ."