Is there any way for Wake Forest coach Danny Manning to keep his job? Well...
Danny Manning is hanging by a thread.
Wake Forest bet the house on Manning five years ago when it named him head basketball coach in 2014. But since then, the payout just hasn’t been there.
Manning has earned — yes, earned— an ugly 65-92 record since taking over in Winston-Salem. That includes just one winning season and one NCAA Tournament appearance.
So as Wake Forest is set to begin ACC Tournament play Tuesday at noon against Miami, this question bears asking:
Is there any way for Manning to save his job?
To answer that, I spoke to Conor O’Neill, the Winston-Salem Journal’s award-winning Wake Forest beat reporter.
He says Manning’s troubles in black and gold are threefold, the first being the team’s defense. This year, the Demon Deacons are ranked 185th nationally in defensive efficiency, per Kenpom’s ratings. That’s easily the worst in the ACC, and incredibly, the fourth-worst of any Power Five program.
Atrocious defense would be troublesome for any team, but especially so in the uber-efficient ACC. Four of Wake’s rivals — Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech — are ranked nationally in the Top 8 of Kenpom’s offensive efficiency ratings.
In Manning’s lone winning season, 2016-17, he had future first-round NBA draft pick John Collins and a high-powered offense to mitigate some of that bad defense. But even that wasn’t enough to keep Wake from getting bounced in the NCAA First Four, and then Collins left after his sophomore season.
Which brings us to Manning’s second big issue: player attrition. Collins is far from the only player with a shortened Deacon career. In 2018, Wake lost eight players over the course of the calendar year. Some of those were early NBA entrants who didn’t pan out (Bryant Crawford and Doral Moore); one was kicked off the team; and five others transferred, including last year’s second-leading scorer, Keyshawn Woods.
That’s not to say Manning hasn’t had talent. Wake had the fourth-best recruiting class in the ACC this year, led by five-star forward Jaylen Hoard. But even with skilled, albeit young, players, it’s hard to do much when you’re turning over practically an entire team.
Manning’s last problem — the one O’Neill mentioned would be one of his first priorities should Wake be searching for a new head coach this spring — is one he put on himself: a lack of media savvy.
To date, Manning has failed to effectively address the uncertainty around his future. Yes, that is an uncomfortable question to answer. But it’s also a head coach’s responsibility. Overall, Manning can’t match the personality, energy or media sophistication of the other instate ACC coaches: Mike Krzyzewski at Duke, Roy Williams at North Carolina or Kevin Keatts at N.C. State.
Then there’s also the matter of Wake hiring John Currie to replace the departing Ron Wellman as athletic director, which would seem to signal an overall changing of the guard.
The arguments for keeping Manning?
He signed an extension in 2017 that keeps him under contract through the 2024-2025 season, meaning a buyout would figure to be quite costly (as a private school, Wake is not obligated to release those numbers). Still, with a new AD, it makes sense that the school’s boosters might be more willing to pay that buyout in exchange for hiring the coach they desire.
Manning also has been an average-to-better recruiter, and the Deacs are one of six finalists for the No. 2 overall high school senior in the class of 2019, guard Cole Anthony. Anthony is still widely expected to choose either Oregon or North Carolina But landing the explosive 6-foot-3 guard would go a long way towards helping Manning’s case.
But it may not be enough. When I asked O’Neill what’s needed to save Manning’s job, he said it would take a bounty: Sign Anthony, win the ACC Tournament this week, and make it back to the big dance.
Unlikely, very unlikely, and near impossible.
Just like Manning’s chances of survival appear to be in Winston-Salem.
