What are odds for Charlotte Hornets in Tuesday’s NBA Draft lottery?
The Draft Lottery hasn’t always been kind to Charlotte’s NBA franchise. And Charlotte’s NBA franchise hasn’t always been strong at using what the lottery provided.
Tuesday’s lottery (8:30 p.m., ESPN) will determine the top three selections in the June 25 draft. Each of the 14 teams that missed the playoffs has some chance at a top-three pick, based on the weighted lottery.
Since the then-Bobcats’ inception in 2004 the franchise has had three top-three picks. They have never improved their draft position via the lottery during that span and fell back a spot in 2012, which proved costly.
They got center Emeka Okafor second in 2004 (the NBA assigned the Bobcats the No. 4 pick in the expansion agreement and they traded up to the Los Angeles Clippers’ No. 2 pick). They selected Adam Morrison third overall in 2006. Morrison was a bust who totaled 122 games and 28 starts with Charlotte before being traded to the Los Angeles Lakers in 2009.
And, after going a league-worst 7-59 the 2011-12 season, the Bobcats slipped from first to second in the lottery process. They got a solid player in small forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, but No. 1 would have gotten them big man Anthony Davis, who was a most valuable player candidate with the New Orleans Pelicans this season.
Based on reverse order of finish, the 33-49 Hornets most likely will pick ninth overall. While they could move up to the top three, teams leap-frogging them into the top three also could move the Hornets’ pick back as far as 12th.
A look at the process, the odds and who the Hornets could end up drafting, based on whether they jump into the top three:
Who, when and where
The lottery will be at the New York Hilton Midtown. ESPN will televise a lottery preview starting at 8:05 p.m., with the new picking order revealed about 8:30. The Hornets representatives at the draft will be Kidd-Gilchrist (on stage) and general manager Rich Cho, who will witness the actual lottery in advance of the telecast.
The Process
The lottery has evolved in the 30 years since now-Hornets associate head coach coach Patrick Ewing was drafted No. 1 by the New York Knicks in 1985. Each team’s chances now are weighted, based on record, so the teams with the worst records have the best chance at remaining at the top of the first round.
Fourteen numbered ping-pong balls will be placed in a hopper, creating 1001 possible number combinations. Each team is assigned a certain number of combinations based in reverse order of finish. Four balls are extracted, that number combination representing the first pick. Then the process is repeated to determine the second and third picks.
The remaining teams will be lined up fourth through 14th based on reverse order of finish.
The odds
Based on the odds chart the NBA provides, the Hornets have an 81 percent chance of staying at No. 9. They have a 1.7 percent chance at the No. 1 overall pick and about a 6 percent chance of receiving one of the top three picks. There is less than a 2 percent chance they would slip to 10th, 11th or 12th.
Compare that with the odds for the Minnesota Timberwolves, who had the NBA’s worst record at 16-66: The Timberwolves have a 25 percent chance at the top pick, a 64 percent chance at a top-three pick and can’t select worse than fourth.
If the Hornets jump into the top 3…
Five players look like viable candidates for one of the top three picks: Duke center Jahlil Okafor, Kentucky forward-center Karl-Anthony Towns, point guard Emmanuel Mudiay (who played in China last winter), Ohio State combo guard D’Angelo Russell and Latvian power forward Kristaps Porzingis. A sixth possibility could be Duke forward Justise Winslow.
The Hornets’ most immediate need is perimeter shooting, which would suggest Russell or Winslow. However, if the Hornets had a top-two pick, it would be hard to resist the opportunity to draft one of two big men, Okafor or Towns, particularly since center Al Jefferson is entering the final season on his contract.
If the Hornets pick ninth, 10th, 11th or 12th …
The Hornets won’t automatically go for need at one of these spots, but they were worst in the NBA this season in 3-point percentage at 31.8 percent. They interviewed at least two players in Chicago – Arizona’s Stanley Johnson and Kentucky’s Devin Booker – who would improve Charlotte’s shooting based on their performance this past season. Both freshmen, Booker shot 41 percent from the college 3-point line and Johnson 37 percent.
It’s also possible the Hornets could go for another big man after choosing power forwards Cody Zeller and Noah Vonleh the previous two drafts. They interviewed Kentucky 7-footer Willie Cauley-Stein in Chicago.
Hornets’ other pick
The Hornets will pick 39th overall in the second round. They interviewed Nevada-Las Vegas shooting guard Rashad Vaughn in Chicago, but he’s probably gone either late in the first round or early in the second. A couple of big men who still could be around at pick 39: Syracuse’s Rakeem Christmas and Kentucky’s Dakari Johnson.
Bonnell: 704-358-5129: @rick_bonnell
NBA Draft Lottery Odds
No. 1 | No. 2 | No. 3 | |
Team | pick | pick | pick |
Timberwolves | 25.0% | 21.5% | 17.8% |
Knicks | 19.9% | 18.8% | 17.1% |
76ers | 15.6% | 15.7% | 15.6% |
Lakers | 11.9% | 12.6% | 13.3% |
Magic | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.7% |
Kings | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% |
Nuggets | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% |
Pistons | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% |
Hornets | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% |
Heat | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% |
Pacers | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% |
Jazz | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% |
Suns | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% |
Thunder | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7 |
Source: NBA.com
And now, the bad news ...
As the No. 9 seed, the Hornets have the highest probability of drafting ninth (81.3%) but could also fall to 10th (12.2%), 11th (0.04%) or even 12th (< 0.001%). That latter scenario could only happen if three of the six teams seeded below it happen to win Top 3 picks.
This story was originally published May 18, 2015 at 9:17 AM with the headline "What are odds for Charlotte Hornets in Tuesday’s NBA Draft lottery?."