Charlotte Hornets at the trade deadline: Is their best deal the one they don’t make?
With the Charlotte Hornets on a six-game losing streak, I can certainly see why whatever interest in them right now revolves mostly around the Feb. 6 NBA trade deadline.
Will the Hornets make a deal? Should the Hornets make a deal? What should make them wary, as far as a trade in the rebuild process?
Mitch Kupchak’s trades, since taking over as Hornets general manager in the spring of 2018, have all been in the off-season: Most notably the multiple deals in July 2018 that effectively swapped out Dwight Howard and brought in Bismack Biyombo. He’s also acquired and dealt second-round picks, notably moving up in the 2018 draft to acquire Devonte Graham.
Kupchak didn’t make an in-season trade a year ago, despite discussions with the Memphiis Grizzlies about acquiring center Marc Gasol (who instead ended up a Toronto Raptor). Does Kupchak do something this February? Should he?
That leads your questions in this week’s mailbag:
I’D RATHER LET THE BAD CONTRACTS EXPIRE, BUT WHAT KIND OF TRADE WOULD YOU DO?
I agree with you that doing nothing might ultimately be the best call. Letting the contracts of Marvin Williams, Bismack Biyombo and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist expire, rather than dealing one or more of them, off-loads as much as $45 million in salary for next summer.
It’s important to keep in mind that the Hornets are over the salary cap, and so are 28 of the 29 other NBA teams (the Atlanta Hawks have a little space). So unless another team has a large trade exception, and is willing to use it to acquire one of Charlotte’s contracts, the Hornets would have to take back comparable salary to make a trade work. That could include salary beyond this season.
That wouldn’t be awful, since the Hornets have only about $81 million in salaries next season. But with a chance to finally clean up the Hornets’ payroll, I doubt Kupchak would be quick to give up a chunk of that flexibility unless whatever he’s acquiring makes sense for the long haul.
I wouldn’t think any of the Hornets’ veterans on expiring contracts would fetch more than a second-round pick. Maybe a late first-rounder.
THE HORNETS HAVE A LOT OF YOUNG PLAYERS ALREADY, SO WHY NOT TRADE THE PICK TO GET A SOLID VETERAN?
I’d be more receptive to that idea later in this rebuild. I doubt you could trade the Hornets’ first-round pick for a veteran who you’d be confident gets them into the playoffs next season. Particularly so if there was any lottery protection on what that pick becomes, which I’m sure Kupchak would want.
I like that they are being deliberate about this process. For a small-market team, drafting-and-developing is usually the best strategy, particularly because the NBA’s rookie pay scale, governing first-round picks, makes for cost-effective salaries the first four seasons of a player’s career. Veterans, almost by definition, are more expensive.
I’m not against trading for veteran contracts — that has served the Hornets well at times — but I’m reluctant to give up draft picks, particularly first-round picks in seasons they are out of playoff contention.
WHO IS THE HORNETS’ THIRD-BEST PLAYER BEHIND DEVONTE GRAHAM AND TERRY ROZIER?
“Best” can have different meanings in different situations. In the Hornets’ situation, I’d describe their best assets as those players most likely to play significant roles on Charlotte’s next playoff team and beyond. Through that lens, I’d rank the best assets as (1) Graham, (2) P.J. Washington and (3) Rozier.
Rookie Washington, the lottery pick out of Kentucky, has started continuously from his first NBA game this season, and deservedly so. He’s got a wide skill set and his basketball savvy is way beyond what you typically see from a rookie. Assuming health, he could be an NBA rotation player the next 10 years.
Graham is a find, and point guard is the most important position in basketball. Rozier has been adaptive, switching to shooting guard to facilitate Graham in the starting lineup, and has had some huge scoring games in his first season here.
The question with Rozier will be whether he’s a long-term starter or more of a combo guard off the bench. He’d be an expensive reserve the next two seasons at nearly $19 million per season, but he would also play a lot.
After that, there’s a next strata with the young guys, led by Miles Bridges. Kupchak and coach James Borrego are still evaluating Malik Monk, Dwayne Bacon and Cody Martin. Bacon is the only one of those three whose contract expires after this season.
IF THIS SEASON IS ABOUT DEVELOPING YOUNG GUYS, THEN WHY ISN’T CODY MARTIN PLAYING MORE?
Borrego was clear before training camp that while he’d lean to playing young guys in close decisions, he wouldn’t play only the kids — that the veterans would get minutes they earn.
Minutes for Bacon, Monk and Martin have fluctuated, relative to how Borrego evaluates their performance. Development isn’t just flooding young guys with minutes; it’s also holding them accountable for making mistakes. Like a lot of coaches, Borrego says his best tool for holding players accountable is playing time.
The coaches and front office like second-round pick Martin’s development. But in the midst of a losing streak, it’s reasonable to try different things. When Borrego played Nic Batum against the Phoenix Suns, he did a good job slowing down Devin Booker. I know there are fans who don’t want Batum playing; I disagree, and not just because he makes a lot of money. His defense and ball-movement are useful.
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR WILLY HERNANGOMEZ GOING FORWARD?
He got some run on the West Coast trip and showed off his scoring touch. But the issue weakness — unreliable post defense — hasn’t changed. If a contender wants bench depth at center, I’d say with confidence Hernangomez would be available in trade. Otherwise, Hernangomez is a free agent in July, and might benefit from a fresh start.
HOW FAR IS RAY SPALDING FROM BEING OF ANY USE?
Spalding is the player the Hornets signed to a two-way contract Wednesday after waiving Robert Franks out of that two-way slot. Spalding is a power forward, and that is arguably the Hornets’ deepest position. There’s no reason to think he’d be getting minutes this season.
It’s important to keep in mind that these two-way contracts are the equivalent of triple-A assignments in baseball. If one of four Hornets spending most of this season with the Greensboro Swarm (Caleb Martin, Jalen McDaniels, Kobi Simmons and now Spalding) ends up a rotation player, that’s progress on the development front. It’s far from certain any of them do, and Kupchak is comfortable with that reality.
