Hornets’ Kon Knueppel won’t beat out Flagg for NBA Rookie of Year. But he should
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel, former Duke teammates, are top 2 candidates for NBA ROY.
- While many of their stats are about even, Knueppel leads entire NBA with 198 made threes.
- Oddsmakers have installed Flagg as a major favorite , but Knueppel really should win.
The NBA Rookie of the Year race has been pared down to two legitimate contenders: Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel.
At this point, if you look at the numbers and remove the reputations, it should be almost a dead heat.
I’d argue, in fact, that Knueppel is having a slightly better season now that we are almost 70% of the way done. If K2 continues on his current trajectory, I would vote for him for ROY over his former Duke teammate.
But that’s almost certainly not the way it’s going to go. Las Vegas thinks it already has this one figured out. Flagg is such a runaway frontrunner for Rookie of the Year that as of Monday night if you bet $20 on Flagg to win today, and he did win, you’d only net an additional $5.
Knueppel is a distant second betting choice. His odds are around +350 compared to Flagg’s -400, which means if you bet $20 on Knueppel to win, and he did, you’d earn an additional $70.
In other words, Knueppel has all sorts of ground to make up as he tries to catch up to his close friend, and not much season to go to do it. The award is based only on regular-season performance (or that’s what is supposed to happen) and is selected by a global panel of 100 sportswriters and broadcasters (I’m not on that panel).
Let’s look at this a little closer, shall we?
My theory is that it’s not going to be based solely on regular-season performance. Flagg is extremely good. No argument there. But he’s also benefiting from the enormous amount of hype that goes with being the No. 1 overall draft choice, and being clearly the best collegiate player in America in his one season at Duke, and being christened as the “next big thing” ever since he was going to high school in Maine.
None of that should technically matter in this race. It should only matter what you have done this season. And here’s a very short version of my three-point argument as to why Knueppel should win over Flagg if we ended the season today:
1) Knueppel has made his team better than Flagg has.
2) Knueppel has been a more durable player than Flagg has.
3) Knueppel is currently doing one thing better than anyone else in the NBA, while you can’t really say Flagg is currently the best in the NBA at any one single thing.
Let’s compare some key statistics.
Points: Flagg 20.4 per game; Knueppel 19.2. Too close to call. Although Flagg averages one more point per game, Knueppel’s durability means he has actually outscored Flagg by 98 points over the course of the season (the Hornets, however, have played two more games than the Mavericks). Edge: Even.
Rebounds: Flagg 6.6 per game; Knueppel 5.5. Flagg is a bigger man, a good banger and a slightly better rebounder. Edge: Flagg.
Field-goal percentage: Flagg 48.2; Knueppel 48.7. Flagg is better inside, Knueppel is better outside. Edge: Even.
3-point percentage: Flagg 30.2; Knueppel 43.5. Knueppel has turned out to be an elite NBA shooter from Day One. Flagg’s 3-point shot is the one weakness he has offensively. Edge: Knueppel.
Missed games: Flagg 7, Knueppel 1. Flagg is nursing a mid-foot sprain at the moment, but has been relatively healthy. Knueppel, though, has played in 57 of Charlotte’s 58 games. Edge: Knueppel.
Team record: Charlotte is 27-31 entering Tuesday night’s games. Dallas is 20-36. Charlotte would be in the NBA play-in game if the season ended today; Dallas is seven games out of play-in contention.
This, to me, is the biggest advantage Knueppel has — he joined a bad team and helped make it far better. Quickly.
I know what you’re going to say regarding the Mavericks’ record — but Luka!! Yes, trading Doncic was a huge, pre-Flagg mistake by the Mavericks, and Dallas is rebuilding from that mess.
Nevertheless, the Hornets went 19-63 last season and are going to end up 15-20 games better this year. The Mavericks were 39-43 and are going to end up 10 or so games worse. Edge: Knueppel.
You truly can make a case for either guy (and it is cool that they are truly buddies and that Flagg recently bought $7,000 worth of Knueppel trading cards on a viral video).
If Dallas had won seven more games than Charlotte, rather than the other way around, I’d flip-flop and say Flagg is having a slightly better season. It’s that close, and I generally think individual awards should go to players on teams that perform the best.
Incidentally, when the two faced off for the first time this season on Jan. 29 it was fantastic theater. Flagg scored a career-high 49 points. But Knueppel had 34 points, including the game-winning free throws, and it was Charlotte that won by an eyelash after Flagg missed a last-second shot. The two teams play again in Charlotte March 3.
Let’s also consider Knueppel’s incredible shooting a final time. Yes, it’s helped by the fact he’s got a lot of other playmakers who find him open shots. But Knueppel is leading — leading — the NBA in made 3-pointers, with 198 of them following Charlotte’s win at Washington on Sunday. That’s more than Steph Curry, Donovan Mitchell or anyone else you’d like to name. That’s extraordinary.
Flagg is undeniably good-to-great at everything. But he’s currently not the best in the NBA at anything.
So if you lined them up and turned off the switch for the 24/7 Flagg hype machine, it feels like a neck-and-neck horse race. And maybe it will end up that way, if Flagg misses some more games.
But if you listen to Vegas — and those casinos are so fancy because those oddsmakers don’t miss too often — this isn’t even going to be that close of a race.
It should be.
In fact, Knueppel should win.
