How lower odds could benefit Charlotte Hornets in NBA Draft Lottery
Count Grant Williams among those who’ll be tuned in Sunday afternoon.
That’s when the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery takes place in a Chicago convention center ballroom, ushering in the next phase of the offseason for the Charlotte Hornets and others eager to see how it will help reshape their respective rosters for 2026-27.
“I don’t know if we can do it back-to-back years with a 0.5% chance of jumping to No. 1, but who knows?” Williams told The Charlotte Observer. “The lottery is the lottery for a reason. The odds are going to change next season in the first place. So, this is a good year for us to do something special, right?”
Technically, the Hornets’ odds of landing the top overall selection for the NBA Draft in June are rather minuscule. As pointed out by Williams, Charlotte has a 0.5% chance of winning the lottery, and 0.6% odds to capture second or third place, just as microscopic.
Throw in the 0.7% odds to land in fourth — that’s a total of 2.4% odds to claim a spot in the top four — and there’s a better chance the region’s drought restrictions will be lifted by the time the lottery commences than the Hornets actually capturing the right No. 1 spot.
Overall, the Hornets have a 97.6% chance to land at No. 14.
But here’s the kicker: the last two lottery winners weren’t exactly flush with the best of odds. In 2024, the Atlanta Hawks boasted only a 3% chance, yet landed the top pick. Something similar happened a year ago when the Dallas Mavericks took home the No. 1 selection despite having a 1.8% chance.
So, maybe this is the Hornets’ time after all.
Winning it would ease a bit of the sting associated with the Hornets’ lack of lottery luck. Since the franchise’s inaugural season in 1988-89, Charlotte has claimed the No. 1 overall spot only once. That came in 1991 when the Hornets drafted Larry Johnson with the top pick. The Hornets held the fifth-best odds that year.
In 1992, Charlotte leaped up six spots to No. 2 overall, marking the second-largest increase in team history, and drafted Alonzo Mourning. The Hornets also moved up 10 spots to third in 1999, selecting Baron Davis and tying for the largest jump in NBA history. They rose five spots in 2020, grabbing LaMelo Ball third overall.
Either way, wherever the Hornets land Sunday, they will be armed with two first-round selections — their own lottery pick and No. 18 overall via the Phoenix Suns thanks to the Jusuf Nurkic trade to Charlotte in February 2025.
The Hornets don’t own a second-round pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. They sent a 2026 second-rounder to the Miami Heat to resolve a dispute regarding the Terry Rozier trade. The compensation stems from the ongoing federal probe into Rozier’s alleged gambling, with Miami receiving the more favorable of the Golden State or Denver 2026 second-round picks.
Charlotte’s own selection (No. 45) was originally traded to the New York Knicks in 2021 in exchange for the draft rights to Kai Jones and is now owned by the Sacramento Kings.
Here’s a refresher about the draft lottery process and what to expect:
NBA Draft Lottery odds/format
The NBA revamped the format in 2019 to level the playing field and discourage tanking, although the process is on track to be tweaked for 2027 since it hasn’t deterred teams from purposely losing. The three teams boasting the worst regular-season records automatically receive a 14% chance to win the lottery.
Before that change, the team with the fewest wins had a 25% of landing the top selection, while the second-worst (19.9%) and third-worst (15.6%) teams also held better odds than the three teams with the highest odds under the current system. But the current format also guarantees the team with the worst record will select no worse than fifth overall. Prior to that, the team with the worst record would select no lower than fourth.
A monumental change is coming next year, when the NBA is introducing a “3-2-1” anti-tanking system designed to further flatten odds and punish organizations that go above and beyond to lose. That includes expanding to 16 teams, along with limiting the bottom three teams to two lottery balls and establishing strict rules against consecutive top-five picks or back-to-back No. 1 picks in successive seasons.
How the process works
This isn’t a made-for-television event. Think it’s akin to a Mega Millions drawing?
As The Observer witnessed firsthand in 2024 and again in 2025, although the NBA utilizes a machine manufactured by the same company that produces state lottery equipment used throughout the country, the drawing is conducted completely differently.
Prior to the actual process, the league assigns 1,000 of the combinations to the 14 teams. Ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 are dropped into the hopper and there are a total of 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of the 14, regardless of their order of selection.
When the hopper is turned on, the balls are mixed for 20 seconds before the first ball is selected. The remaining balls are mixed in the machine for another 10 seconds prior to another ball being drawn.
The process is repeated two more times and the team with the four-ball combination is awarded the top selection. Balls are returned to the machine, and they repeat the process to determine which teams pick second, third and fourth.
If the same team combination appears more than once — or if the one unassigned combination is drawn — the result is thrown out, leading to another four-ball combination being selected.
How to watch
42nd NBA Draft Lottery
▪ Where: McCormick Place West, Chicago
▪ When: Sunday, May 10
▪ Time: 3 p.m. ET
▪ TV: ABC
