ACC bowl guide: What the CFP rankings mean for the ACC
The College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday provided a clearer picture of what the ACC’s bowl lineup will look like.
How those slots will be filled is still murky. Let’s start at the top:
College Football Playoff
Clemson (11-0) is No. 3 in the latest CFP rankings and would make the playoff semifinals with wins over South Carolina and the ACC championship game.
The ACC’s Tigers are currently matched up with No. 2 LSU (11-0). If you think the committee moved Ohio State to No. 1 by accident, I have breaking news for you: They didn’t.
Here’s a bet that says it was done to avoid a potential LSU-Alabama rematch in the semifinals. You can’t lucidly argue Ohio State has a better resume than LSU. Yet LSU dropped down a spot this week because the committee kept Alabama at No. 5.
Alabama’s ranking, without injured quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, is significant because the No. 4 team (Georgia) is probably going to lose in the SEC title game to LSU. If the Crimson Tide can beat Auburn on Saturday, it is in position to jump into the final playoff spot.
How does this affect the ACC? If the SEC gets two teams in the playoff (and it could be Georgia and LSU instead), then a slot in the Orange Bowl opens up for the Big Ten. When the Big Ten is the ACC’s opponent in the Orange Bowl, the ACC gets an extra spot in Orlando in the Citrus Bowl on Jan. 1.
Since Notre Dame (9-2), No. 16 in the CFP rankings, is not going to jump up high enough to make a “New Year’s 6” game, it will fall into the ACC order. The Fighting Irish, who close out the regular season with Stanford (4-7), would take the ACC’s spot in the Citrus.
Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech (8-3) has won six of its past seven games and made its CFP rankings debut at No. 24. Contractually, the Orange Bowl will take the second-highest ranked ACC team (it can’t be Notre Dame), if the champion is in the playoff.
It stands to reason, the winner of Friday’s VT-Virginia (8-3) game will finish the regular-season in the CFP rankings. Barring a catastrophic loss to Clemson in the ACC title game, the Coastal Division winner will remain in the final ranking and go to the Orange Bowl in Miami on .Dec. 30
The way the rankings are set up and the “NY6” contracts work, No. 10 Penn State (9-2) would be the ACC’s opponent in the Orange. No. 11 Florida (9-2) would have to jump Penn State, which finishes the regular season with hapless Rutgers. That doesn’t seem likely.
Camping World Bowl
After the CFP process, the Camping World Bowl in Orlando (Dec. 28) gets the first choice. If the Citrus Bowl opens up for the ACC, Notre Dame will go there.
If No. 6 Utah or No. 7 Oklahoma were to jump Alabama for the final playoff spot, then the SEC would have a team in the Orange. That would mean only one spot in Orlando for the ACC.
Either way, Notre Dame tops the Orlando pecking order. If the ACC has two spots in Orlando — both the Citrus and Camping World — Louisville (7-4) would likely be the second choice.
Bowl games like two things: Ticket sales and TV ratings. Good stories equal ratings. The Cardinals are the best story in the ACC this season under first-year coach Scott Satterfield after a dreadful 2018.
Tier I
There are four games in this tier: Belk (Charlotte, Dec. 31), Pinstripe (New York, Dec. 27), Sun (El Paso, Texas, Dec. 31) and for this year, Music City (Nashville, Dec. 30).
The ACC will give these four games a list of eligible teams in the “pool.” If the school is not in the pool, it can’t be picked. There’s a “two-win” rule to get in the pool. That means a 6-6 team can’t jump an 8-4 team.
And this is where the rubber meets the road. Charlotte would prefer to take North Carolina (5-6), if the Tar Heels win at N.C. State on Saturday. But if Wake Forest (8-3), Pittsburgh (7-4) and Miami (6-5) all win, the Heels will not be in the pool. (Wake/Pitt/Miami are all favored to win this week).
If Virginia Tech loses to Virginia on Friday, Charlotte would be ecstatic to get the Hokies. If Virginia loses, that changes Charlotte’s choice because the Wahoos were in the Belk Bowl last year.
Geography, avoiding rematches of the regular season and avoiding return trips are the basic guiding principles for the Tier I choices. Pitt won’t have to go back to the Sun Bowl this year, either.
Wake Forest is banged up but still has a chance to finish 9-3. A healthy version of the Demon Deacons likely would have taken the league’s spot in the Orange. Alas, the Deacs look like they are ticketed for a second Belk Bowl trip (they beat Texas A&M there in 2017) in three years.
The SEC side could work out to be either Tennessee (6-5) or Kentucky (6-5) as the opponent in Charlotte.
What the Tier I games currently look like: Wake Forest (Belk), Pitt (Pinstripe), Miami (Sun) and Virginia (Music City).
If UNC ends up in the pool (which doesn’t seem likely), it would look more like: UNC (Belk), Virginia (Pinstripe), Wake (Sun) and Pitt (Music City).
Tier II
The ACC has three Tier II tie-ins but unless Boston College (5-6) beats Pitt, the league potentially only has two bowl-eligible teams.
UNC, with a win over N.C. State, would be the first choice for the Military Bowl in Annapolis, Md. on Dec. 27. That would leave Florida State (6-5), after a likely loss to Florida on Saturday, for the league’s final trip to Shreveport, La. for the Independence Bowl (Dec. 26).
Duke (4-7) actually still has a postseason pulse due to its Academic Progress Report excellence. If there aren’t enough 6-win, bowl-eligible teams to fill the 78 bowl slots, the 5-win teams are picked based on APR ranking.
The Blue Devils are No. 1 in the APR (Boston College, No. 8 in the APR, could also take advantage of this rule). If the Devils can beat Miami on Saturday, they would potentially be in position to make a trip to Detroit (Dec. 26) for the Quick Lane Bowl.
There are 73 bowl-eligible teams and 13 more 5-win teams with a chance to fill the five open slots. The odds are against a spot opening up for a 5-win team.
This story was originally published November 27, 2019 at 10:22 AM with the headline "ACC bowl guide: What the CFP rankings mean for the ACC."
