How the Charlotte 49ers football team could pull off the upset against South Carolina
For the first time this year, Charlotte looked like the team many expected before the season began.
The 49ers left Atlanta with their first win of the season, a one-point victory over Georgia State with a miraculous game-winning drive led by Chris Reynolds and Grant DuBose.
Next, Charlotte has its final non-conference bout with SEC foe South Carolina on Saturday night at 7:30 PM on ESPNU. While the Gamecocks may not be the team that you want to see following your first victory, Conference USA play is on the horizon, starting Oct. 1 with Texas El-Paso.
Prior to the season, two wins and three losses through five games seemed favorable. William & Mary would be a tune-up FCS matchup. Florida Atlantic and Georgia State would be toss-ups as Group of Five opponents, and then Maryland and South Carolina would be chances for Will Healy and the 49ers to add another signature win, however unlikely.
And then the season started.
The defense, which seemed like it couldn’t get any worse after giving up 465 yards and 34 points per game a year ago, has done exactly that through four games, allowing averages of 563 yards and 45 points, including 41 points and more than 300 rushing yards against FCS William & Mary.
The absence of Chris Reynolds for two-and-a-half games due to injury derailed the offense, but Charlotte did find its starting quarterback of the future with Xaiver Williams’ flashes of greatness. But Charlotte still has suffered through its worst start since 2017.
Now Reynolds is back, and there’s one final non-conference game as Charlotte treks to Columbia to face the Gamecocks.
For the third consecutive week, Charlotte is a 20-plus point underdog — this time as a 22.5-point road dog against South Carolina in a sold-out Williams-Brice Stadium. Though the players aren’t paying much attention to the spread, Healy is.
“We had three and a half hours of laying in the hotel and every time the game came across the bottom line it said Georgia State -20 and an 88% chance of winning the football game,” Healy said. “I saw that for three and a half hours and I’m sitting there like ‘I guess these guys could care less about it, but it’s (upsetting me) watching it.”
Charlotte would have to play its best game of the season, and have some help from a struggling Gamecocks’ offense, to be competitive, let alone win this one. But what would have to happen for that to be a reality?
Tight defense a must
Reynolds and Charlotte’s Big 3 receivers make the offense scary, and you can expect they’ll find the end zone multiple times against South Carolina. But they don’t play defense.
Charlotte allowed 457 yards on 16 chunk plays against Maryland, including four touchdowns of 30 yards or more. Blown assignments combined with the talent gap have resulted in career-best performances from an opponent in all four contests.
South Carolina has created seven plays of 30-yards or more through three games, two of which were against top 10 teams in the country, and the other was a 35-14 victory over mutual opponent Georgia State.
Oklahoma transfer Spencer Rattler has opened up the Gamecocks’ offense with the ability to spread the field, but he’s struggled with any sort of pressure — whether via the blitz or an opposing front-four creating havoc.
Rattler has completed just 12 of his 37 attempts when under pressure, resulting in one touchdown, three interceptions and six turnover-worthy plays. He’s been under pressure on 41% of his dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus. If Charlotte can speed up Rattler’s clock with consistent pressure, this dramatically increases the chance of creating a takeaway for the third consecutive week.
Can the 49ers make that happen? The statistics say no.
Charlotte’s recorded four sacks in as many games and doesn’t have a player with more than one. Markees Watts doesn’t yet have a sack, although he did score his first defensive touchdown on a 52-yard scoop and score to turn the game at Georgia State.
The 49ers will have to be strategic in attacking the Gamecocks’ offensive line. Tackle Dylan Wonnum and guard Jovaughn Gwyn have each allowed eight pressures in true pass sets, with the latter allowing three sacks in three games.
Amir Siddiq recorded his first sack against Georgia State and has a win rate of 28.6, the highest of Charlotte’s starting defensive linemen. Siddiq must be a wrecking ball if Charlotte is to even sniff Rattler.
Offense must produce
Reynolds, DuBose, Elijah Spencer and Victor Tucker — the catalysts for change. The 49ers’ wideouts jumped from the Dream Team to the Big 3 with Spencer’s production increase, racking up 100-yards per game over his last three. The trio accounted for 19 catches for 214 yards and four touchdowns in Reynolds’ first full game at the helm, and Charlotte will need more of that on Saturday night.
But it’s South Carolina’s run defense that his big Shane Beamer’s biggest problem. The Gamecocks have allowed 200+ rushing yards in all three games so far, including two busts of 40-yards or more against Georgia State.
Can the 49ers capitalize?
Charlotte hasn’t had a 100-yard rusher since this time a season ago when Calvin Camp carried for 101 against Middle Tennessee. Camp has just one carry for two yards this season. ChaVon McEachern posted the 49ers’ best rushing total this season of 76 yards against the Panthers and must build on his career-best performance if Charlotte is to remain competitive.
Going against a battered Gamecocks’ defense, who could be missing their starting free safety and best cornerback, Charlotte will likely turn the offense over to Reynolds. But whether it be chipping with tight ends, keeping a running back in to block or calling designed rollouts, offensive coordinator Mark Carney must protect Reynolds’ upper-body injury and keep the 5-foot-11 signal-caller on his feet as much as possible. Healy doesn’t think that’s possible.
Healy added on ESPN’s 730 the Game: “The way he plays, there is no keeping him up right. He plays reckless and that’s what you love about him.”
Reynolds has completed 50% of his passes of 20-air-yards or more, with an NFL passer rating of 129.2 on those throws. He’s needed an average of 2.89 seconds in the pocket to throw the deep ball, and if Charlotte’s offensive line hold up, expect No. 3 to uncork quite a few downfield. Reynolds doesn’t have a single turnover-worthy play through six quarters of action, and he’ll have to extend the streak and add one of his best performances to date to pull off the upset.