Hot seat or not? Evaluating Charlotte coach Will Healy during rough start to 2022
It’s been a rough stretch over the past year for the Charlotte 49ers football program.
Since securing its first Power Five win and the best start in school history through six games of the 2021 season, Charlotte has won just two of its past 13 games — losing by an average of nearly 23 points in that stretch.
While not yet eliminated from bowl contention, Charlotte (1-6, 0-3 C-USA) must win its final five games to qualify for the postseason, starting with homecoming Saturday against Florida International (2-4, 0-2).
Fourth-year head coach Will Healy has come under fire from the fan base, posting a 15-23 record since taking charge in 2019, but has continued to demonstrate the team’s resilience and fight through the lows — traits that will be a major factor in the 36-year-old coach’s future.
The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman included Healy on the publication’s most recent coaches “hot seat” assessment, saying the Charlotte coach’s situation is “getting warmer.”
Healy, after a second-consecutive heartbreaking loss, elaborated on the season’s struggles and apologized to the team.
“I don’t really give a crap about what my record is or all the rumors. I don’t really care; I care about these guys having an unbelievable experience,” Healy said. “And I apologized to them for not making that happen today. They’re a blessing to coach.”
Charlotte is coming off losses of 41-35 to UTEP and 34-20 to UAB.
“When you’re 1-6, and you’ve had two kind of heartbreakers here recently — you’re seeing strides, you’re seeing improvement in how they’re working, you’re just dying for success, and for a win,” Healy said. “I love them. I’m so freaking proud of them. I’m not looking for silver linings and I’m not looking for moral victories. ... I apologized to them for being the head coach and not being able to get it done. I don’t take it lightly. I want them to win.”
Winning via shootout has been Charlotte’s primary recipe for success in the past two seasons. The defense has continued to decline under Healy, allowing 29.8 points per game in 2019, 32.5 in 2020, 34 in 2021 and 44.6 in 2022 — the worst mark in the FBS.
Starting in July 2023, the 49ers will join the American Athletic Conference, ending their eight-year tenure in Conference USA. It’s a huge opportunity for the 49ers, which includes boosts in resources, budgets, recruiting and visibility. It also includes a jump in competition.
While Charlotte never competed for a Conference USA championship, there were plenty of exciting moments in the program’s first decade, including the first bowl appearance, a winning season and a first Power Five victory over Duke.
It has been a roller coaster ride for the 49ers since Healy took charge, but one that’s been in decline longer than expected.
“We hear Healy still has the support of the right people around the program, and the remainder of the schedule isn’t a gauntlet,” Feldman wrote for The Athletic. “Getting to three wins isn’t unrealistic, but after the start this team had, it would really help if the nation’s worst defense started to show some signs of life.”
Should Charlotte consider a coaching change? There are two schools of thought here, but athletic director Mike Hill and the 49ers plan to evaluate every aspect of the program to create momentum heading to the American.
OPTION 1: GIVE HEALY TIME
With five games remaining on this season’s schedule, the opportunity for a turnaround is still possible, maybe even familiar for Healy. And getting their first home victory of the season Saturday could go a long way for the 49ers.
“When you look at his entire tenure, there’s been a lot of great moments, too. It’s been a struggle lately, for sure,” Hill told The Observer during Charlotte’s bye week between the UTEP and UAB games. “But it was really exciting to see Will, the staff and the players rebound from a 2-5 start in Year One and have our first-ever winning season and go to a bowl game for the first time ever. That was an amazing first season for sure.
“Then, obviously, we had the COVID year where we didn’t get to play half of our games. You can’t evaluate that. It’s difficult to build a team in that environment when the goal is to keep people away from each other,” Hill said. “And then last year, we were playing for a bowl bid in the last game of the season.
“For a program, that up until that point had never been to a bowl game, I think Will and his staff and players had done a great job for our program trying to build momentum and try to prepare for entry to a new conference next year. A lot of really high-water marks for Will for sure.”
Charlotte has been an underdog in five consecutive games, including scoring its lone win of the season as a 20-point road underdog at Georgia State. The 49ers are currently a two-touchdown favorite against Florida International — a program going through a complete rebuild.
Injuries derailed Charlotte in the first half of the season, missing its sixth-year quarterback Chris Reynolds for two and a half games, as well as a litany of players sidelined on the defensive side of the ball. While there are only five more guaranteed games in Reynolds’ career as a 49er, redshirt freshman QB Xavier Williams has shown flashes of the future. A full offseason in the quarterback battle could show immediate improvement for the Colquitt County, Georgia, native.
It is clear that Healy has been a great face for the program from a marketing perspective, playing a crucial part in the relevance of the 49ers and the upcoming expansion of Richardson Stadium. It’s also been clear that the locker room is behind Healy. The fight is there; the intangibles are there. Charlotte just needs it to show up in the win column.
“There have certainly been some down times as well. We’re experiencing that this current season. A 1-5 start is not what anybody envisioned,” Hill said. “Disappointing for sure, and a disappointing end to last season as well. You add the end of last season to the start of this season, and it’s been a really long year. We all recognize that, and we’ve got a responsibility to fix it.”
OPTION TWO: MOVE ON
For starters, Healy is currently under contract through Jan. 31, 2026. If he’s fired after the 2022 season, his buyout would be approximately $1.515 million.
If Charlotte opts to move on and bring in a new face to lead the program, it seems highly unlikely that that move would be made midseason. It also seems unlikely the 49ers will tolerate a long-term lack of success, especially with the move to the American looming.
One topic of conversation surrounding the 49ers is improved recruiting. Since Healy took charge, Charlotte has lived in the middle of the pack of C-USA, ranking as high as third in the conference in recruiting ranks and as low as 14th, according to 247Sports. The program’s best class ranked 71st in the nation in 2020, but Charlotte finished 108th and 114th in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
The 49ers’ in-progress class for 2023 is ranked 129th nationally, per 247Sports.
Uncertainty of any kind in a program can impact a recruiting class. Charlotte missed out on multiple recruits from November 2021 to February 2022 when its defensive coaching staff was in flux.
With the head coach potentially on the hot seat, upcoming trips to Florida and Maryland in the non-conference and a more competitive conference slate — combined with the pending departure of seniors Reynolds, Victor Tucker, Ashton Gist, Markees Watts and Amir Siddiq — there is plenty of uncertainty in the immediate future.
“We’re disappointed with the results of the season thus far. It’s unacceptable. I know that our players and coaches would echo that,” Hill said. “I think clearly, we’ve got a lot of work to do. We recognize that and we know that – every aspect of our program we have to take a look at to make sure that we’re competing at the level that our players deserve, and our fans deserve.”
The upcoming offseason is huge for the 49ers, potentially the biggest ever for the program.
The 49ers are in search of some form of momentum heading into the American Athletic Conference, and whether it’s from on-field results or new leadership is to be determined. For reference, compared with the other five schools that will be moving from C-USA to the AAC — Texas San Antonio, Rice, Florida Atlantic, North Texas and UAB — Charlotte has the worst record of the group over the past 18 games.
“This is a major step up competitively, and it’s also a major step up in terms of visibility for the program and our university,” Hill said. “It’s an exciting time and a lot of momentum still overall as we move into that new conference because of what It can do for us. So, it’s going to be imperative that we return the favor, and we demonstrate that we’re deserving of that opportunity.”
This story was originally published October 19, 2022 at 12:00 AM.