Charlotte 49ers must win their final 3 games to be bowl eligible. It won’t be easy
It has been a rough month for Biff Poggi and the Charlotte 49ers, but even in an up-and-down season with just three opportunities games left, Charlotte still controls its own bowl-eligibility destiny.
Following three straight losses by a combined 70 points, Charlotte is through the “gauntlet” portion of its American Athletic Conference slate, and on to a more favorable final quarter of the season, with matchups against South Florida, Florida Atlantic, and Alabama-Birmingham, who combine for a record of 8-16.
For reference, the combined record of Charlotte’s previous three opponents — Navy, Memphis, and Tulane — is 20-6.
The 49ers must win out to qualify for bowl eligibility for the second time in program history. And with two of those games coming at Richardson Stadium, as well as 16 days of rest with a bye week following the Oct. 31 loss to Tulane – Charlotte is healthy for the final push.
If the 49ers are to run the table, it will start with redemption against South Florida, who ran over Charlotte in the 2023 season finale, pouring on 48 points in a lopsided victory in Tampa.
Nov. 16: vs. USF Bulls
Even without starting quarterback Byrum Brown, who is tracking to return for the Nov. 16 matchup against Charlotte, the Bulls are getting hot at the right time. With losses to No. 11 Alabama and No. 4 Miami, Tulane and Memphis, South Florida is battle-tested entering the final month of the season.
Following a dominating 45-0 Boca Raton Bowl victory over Syracuse in Alex Golesh’s first season as head coach, the Bulls (4-4, 2-2 AAC) have positioned themselves for a second-consecutive bowl appearance, needing just two victories in four remaining games to qualify.
The last time these teams met, which was the first time in the program’s history, Brown combined for five touchdowns as the Bulls found the endzone in every quarter. But this year’s version of South Florida isn’t as efficient, especially on defense. The Bulls post the second-worst passing defense in the conference, allowing nearly 294 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. It’s a bend-but-don’t-break defense, surrendering 28.9 points per game, meaning the 49ers must connect on the big plays that DeShawn Purdie has thrived on this season to keep their bowl hopes alive. This is by far the tallest task remaining on the schedule.
Nov. 23: at FAU Owls
Since Brad Lambert’s final game in 2018, Charlotte is winless against Florida Atlantic (2-6, 0-4). And they’ve all been season-derailing losses, too, featuring quarterback injuries and major momentum shifts. In short, nothing good happens for the 49ers when they take on the Owls, and this game must be different if Charlotte is still alive for bowl contention.
In a similar situation to Charlotte, Florida Atlantic must win out to reach a bowl for the first time since 2020. Offensive production has continued to be an issue under second-year coach Tom Herman, but this season the run defense is the biggest issue. Opposing teams are rushing for 215 yards per game against the Owls, playing in Charlotte’s favor as a run-first team under Poggi.
Junior quarterback Cam Fancher has been up and down in Herman’s offense, completing 59.2% of his passes for six touchdowns and six interceptions on the season. The dual-threat facet has posed issues for Charlotte’s defense all season, and Fancher is averaging 15 rushing attempts per game over their past three.
Charlotte’s final road game of the season is a crucial one, especially following a nationally televised loss at home against the Owls a season ago.
Nov. 30: vs. UAB Blazers
The 49ers’ senior day comes against one of the worst teams in the AAC, with Alabama-Birmingham coming to the Queen City for the season finale. The Blazers’ defense has struggled all season, highlighted by a six-game losing streak. Allowing a league-leading 23 rushing touchdowns this season, opponents are rushing for an average of 236 yards per game.
The Blazers’ rushing defense has been so bad that opponents are rarely forced to throw the ball, with opposing quarterbacks throwing just 173 passes — far and away the least in the AAC. The low point was Tulane scoring 71 points on Trent Dilfer’s team, raising questions about the former NFL quarterback being cut out for the UAB (2-6, 1-4) head coaching job.
If Charlotte can beat the Florida duo of USF and FAU, securing bowl eligibility at home would be a fitting end to Poggi’s second season — but that’s a big if.
The 49ers will need to find a streak of consistency at quarterback, lean on their running backs, and resume taking the ball away on defense to score three-straight victories for the first time in the Poggi era.