Daytona 500 prediction: Why we like Brad Keselowski to win NASCAR’s most famous race
Predicting a Daytona 500 winner is never going to be an easy exercise.
It’s difficult to go by recent performances in NASCAR’s season-opening race, which is set for a 2:30 p.m. start Sunday at Daytona International Speedway, because there haven’t been back-to-back winners since 1994 and ‘95, when Sterling Marlin pulled it off.
And finding a driver who’s been consistently dominant isn’t easy, either. Denny Hamlin, who won last year and in 2016, is the only repeat winner over the last eight seasons. And there have been huge surprises in recent years. Remember Austin Dillon in 2018, Trevor Bayne in 2011 and Jamie McMurray in 2010?
But try and predict a winner, we must:
Who we almost picked ...
Denny Hamlin: As previously noted, Hamlin is a two-time winner and the race’s defending champion. He’s not starting from a great spot Sunday (21st), but he’s going to be a factor. Why? Because he always is.
Martin Truex Jr.: He’s one of those drivers who’s won just about everything — the 2017 Cup championship, 23 races over the last four seasons. It’s time he won the biggest race of them all.
Kyle Busch: Like Truex, Busch needs a Daytona victory to round out a hall-of-fame career. He’s won two Cup titles, including last season’s, and has won on every track on the circuit (excluding Charlotte’s Roval). But he’d trade his victory in Daytona’s July race in 2008 for one Sunday.
Joey Logano: He knows what it takes to win the 500, which he did in 2015. Starts from an advantageous position (third), behind pole-winner Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Contenders
Kevin Harvick: He won Daytona in 2007, and, as he begins to hit the twilight of his career, will certainly be in the middle of things Sunday (starting 10th).
Kyle Larson: Waiting to have that true breakthrough season, and Sunday might be a great way to start it.
Darkhorses
William Byron: Charlotte Country Day alum was on the Daytona pole in 2019, but still hasn’t won on the Cup circuit. Starting fourth Sunday, he could surprise.
Erik Jones: A youngster like Byron, Jones won last week’s Busch Clash. Can he carry that momentum into Sunday?
But the checkered flag goes to ...
Brad Keselowski: Starting ninth, Keselowski is on a mission this season. He has missed the playoffs’ final four the past two seasons and he wants to get this season off to a fast start as he goes after a repeat of his 2012 Cup title. Keselowski, along with Truex and Kyle Busch, belongs on the list of “best drivers to have never won Daytona.” And he’s carrying a chip on his shoulder from last week’s Busch Clash, when he was wrecked out of the race by teammate Logano. A little attitude from the normally laid back Keselowski — as well as a strong No. 2 Ford — will carry him to Sunday’s checkered flag.
This story was originally published February 14, 2020 at 10:29 AM.