NASCAR playoffs start next week. Here’s what drivers at Daytona need to do to make it

The ideal scenario for any NASCAR Cup driver in Saturday’s lineup at Daytona International Speedway — regardless of points, retirement or playoff status — is to win the race.

For the drivers on the points bubble, though, specifically Matt DiBenedetto (plus-9), William Byron (plus-4) and Jimmie Johnson (minus-4), a race win would be all the more sweet after what will likely come down to counting positions in the final stage to ensure that they make it into the postseason.

The Observer has outlined some of those scenarios and team strategies for fans eager to know how those drivers will need to finish throughout the race to stay in the championship hunt.

This file will be updated throughout the race with the latest points for the bubble drivers.

WHO’S LOCKED INTO NASCAR PLAYOFFS?

Ten drivers have secured their spot in the playoffs through a race win: Kevin Harvick (seven wins), Denny Hamlin (six), Brad Keselowski (three), Chase Elliott (two), Joey Logano (two), Alex Bowman (one), Ryan Blaney (one), Martin Truex Jr. (one), Austin Dillon (one) and Cole Custer (one). Through points, three other drivers — Aric Almirola, Kyle Busch and Kurt Busch — have effectively secured their spot in the postseason as well. Even if those three drivers tank at Daytona, they’re safe.

WHO’S NOT LOCKED IN?

The first driver in jeopardy is Clint Bowyer, who is the 14th driver on the playoff points ladder. Although 57 points separate him from the cutoff heading into Daytona, the highest number of points any driver could earn Saturday is 60, so Bowyer is technically still on the fringe if Byron, DiBenedetto and Johnson have spectacular races. Bowyer needs at least two stage points to ensure his playoff spot, or he needs to finish in 34th or higher.

Erik Jones is the other driver on the outskirts of the bubble, but he’s still in the mix as the driver ranked 18th (50 points below the cutoff). He would need to win both stages of the race and finish in the top-10, with Byron and Johnson finishing out of the top-10 in each stage, to make it into the postseason. Bowyer not making it, and Jones sneaking in, seem unlikely.

What’s more likely is seeing a points battle play out between DiBenedetto (637 points), Byron (632) and Johnson (628), who are separated by just nine points.

Any full-time driver who’s not on the bubble, such as rookies Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick, just need a win at Daytona to reach the postseason.

PLAYOFF BUBBLE DRIVERS

Johnson is currently the first driver to miss the playoff cutoff in 17th place. Both Byron and Johnson have said their plan for the weekend is to work together so that both Hendrick teams are eligible for playoffs. That means Wood Brothers Racing driver DiBenedetto is Johnson’s biggest target.

If not a race win, then a stage win is ideal for any of those three drivers. Particularly for Johnson and if the other two do not finish in the top-10 in the first two stages. A stage win, for example, would give Johnson a 10-point boost, putting him one point ahead of DiBenedetto if he were to finish out of the top-10. Then, Johnson’s goal would be to finish the race ahead of him.

If, for example, Johnson wins the first stage and crashes out in the second, though, he would still be in jeopardy if Byron and DiBenedetto are still running.

While Byron has said he’s focused on DiBenedetto, he really only needs to stay ahead of Johnson in each stage to secure his spot. If Byron were to crash early and finish in last place, Johnson would need to finish in 35th place or better.

The goal for each of these drivers is simple, though: Stay ahead of the other two, avoid the nearly inevitable massive wreck(s) and hope that if you don’t win, a driver who has already won a race does.

LIVE POINTS TRACKER

This story was originally published August 29, 2020 at 9:00 AM.

Alexandra Andrejev

The Charlotte Observer

NASCAR and Charlotte FC beat reporter Alex Andrejev joined The Observer in January 2020 following an internship at The Washington Post. She is a two-time APSE award winner for her NASCAR beat coverage and National Motorsports Press Association award winner. She is the host of McClatchy’s podcast “Payback” about women’s soccer. Support my work with a digital subscription