Here are the 2020 NASCAR playoff drivers and why each could win it all
Kyle Petty was surprised by the level of confidence the field of 2020 NASCAR playoff drivers exhibited before entering the postseason this weekend at Darlington.
“You hear those stories and you kind of take it with a grain of salt in February when the season’s beginning to start,” said Petty, a NBC Sports NASCAR commentator and former Cup driver. “But every one of them gave valid reasons why they could win a race, why they could make it to the finals, to Phoenix, why they could be the guy.”
The pandemic-induced format change from the regular season will continue into the postseason, meaning there will be no practice or qualifying sessions before each of the 10 playoff races that begin Sunday at the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. That’s part of why Petty said he was surprised about the drivers’ confidence levels. The unknown variable of unloading a car and racing without touching the track remains.
“Every one of them believes they can get it done and I think that is huge,” Petty said. “I don’t think we talked to a single driver who didn’t feel like they could attack this first round and that there was a race in this first round that they could come out on top.”
While Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin have dominated the regular season, combining to win half the races so far, each of the 16 drivers in the playoffs are there for a reason, whether through a race win or points. In a normal year, the NASCAR Cup championship is anyone’s to win, including the unlikely heroes. In a pandemic year, maybe moreso.
Here are the 16 drivers contending for the title, how they carved their path to the 2020 playoffs and why they can (or can’t) win it all.
(Ranked from 16 to 1 in current points standings)
Matt DiBenedetto (No. 21)
DiBenedetto (2,000 points) reached the playoffs in points as the final driver in the 16-team cutoff. This is DiBenedetto’s first run in the postseason. He enters Darlington 20 points behind the top-five drivers, so it’ll be difficult for the No. 21 to reach the final four on points. DiBenedetto also hasn’t secured a win in the series, but he came close at Las Vegas with a second place finish before the pandemic. The Wood Brothers Racing driver was also able to earn more stage points than Kurt Busch, Austin Dillon and Cole Custer this season. If he can get through the first round in points and finish what he started at Vegas in the Round of 12, he might just have a shot. The Round of 8 would be a major hurdle, but never say never. He has three Penske teammates and seven other Fords in the contention, which would help him on the grid at Talladega.
DiBenedetto: “The most stressful part was making it in the playoffs, but now I feel like we are the most put together as a team and the most prepared and ready to go and execute to really make some hay and pick some guys off, and try and make it through and do a really good job.”
Kurt Busch (No. 1)
Busch (2,001 points) is a veteran of the postseason. This is his 14th run in the playoffs and he’s seeking his second Cup championship (2004). The elder Busch, who admitted to missing practice earlier this season, still recorded four top fives, 14 top-10s and a pole position this year for Chip Ganassi Racing. Like DiBenedetto, it will be difficult for Busch to rely solely on points since he’s entering the playoffs at a deficit, so he needs a first race win early. Darlington could be the place to start that streak — he finished third at that track in May for his best finish of the season — as could the first round cutoff race at Bristol, where Busch has his most career wins (six).
Kurt Busch: “It’s been tough with no practice, but the notes that we have and the consistency within the runs we’ve had this year, I’m looking forward to the next few races and getting through these next few rounds and trying to get to that Elite 8 and try to win one of those races to punch our ticket to get to Phoenix, get to the championship.”
Kyle Busch (No. 18)
Busch (2,003 points) is the defending series champion still searching for a win this season. The combined lack of practice, slow speed and bad luck have put Rowdy in the bottom-half of points entering the 2020 playoffs. But never discount the two-time Cup champion. This is the same Joe Gibbs driver who missed 11 races in 2015, then won the championship after breaking his leg and foot in a massive Daytona accident. Last season, Busch had 13 top-five finishes in the regular season, including his four race wins, and he isn’t far behind that mark this year despite no wins. He’s notched 11 top-fives and 13 top-10s so far this season. He’ll need at least one fortuitously-timed win, but he’s won at every playoff track except the Charlotte road course. Now comes his biggest challenge: winning in 2020.
Kyle Busch: “We know how to do this. We’ve done it. We’ve been there. We’ve lived through the stresses and everything that it takes week in and week out to be top performers at this level and there’s nothing that doesn’t say that it can’t turn back up in the right direction for us.”
Clint Bowyer (No. 14)
Bowyer (2,004 points) is running in his ninth playoffs. Last season, he similarly pointed his way into the postseason, making it through the first round. Despite only two top-fives and seven top-10s this year, Bowyer has consistently racked up stage points. He has the 10th-most stage points of the season (129) with three stage wins. Bowyer finished second at Bristol in May, and he has two career wins each at Richmond and Talladega. While the earlier races are at Bowyer’s better tracks, the challenge will be capitalizing there and pushing through the Round of 8 hurdle, all while tuning out the uncertainty of returning to his Stewart-Haas Racing team next year. The No. 14 driver still isn’t locked into his ride for next season and recently said that he wants to be “part of this sport in any way, shape or form.” An unlikely championship run would almost certainly guarantee that.
Bowyer: “We’ve run up front. We’ve won stages. We’ve led laps ... but we’ve made mistakes. Now, we have a notebook of what not to do and we’ve got to put it to good use within these playoffs.”
Aric Almirola (No. 10)
Almirola (2,005 points) was named as a “dark horse” contender to upset the playoff grid by many of his competitors in advance of the playoffs. Almirola has quietly worked his way through the field with a fast car and consistent Stewart-Haas Racing team. He enters the postseason, his fourth, as the highest-ranked driver without a win. Almirola’s hot-streak came in late-June, when he secured five top-fives in a row, at Homestead, Talladega, Pocono and Indianapolis. He said the season has been one of his best, but he hasn’t shown as much success this year at the early playoff tracks, Darlington (12th and seventh place finishes) and Bristol (29th). If another streak comes at the right time, though, Harvick and Hamlin might have an underdog to fear.
Almirola: “I feel like we have the potential. We’ve been all around it, we just haven’t put it all together to win races, but we’ve been so close. We’ve led a lot of laps. We’ve run top-five a lot. And when you do those things, typically you’ll find yourself in Victory Lane.”
Cole Custer (No. 41)
Custer (2,005 points) locked himself into the postseason with a surprise win at Kentucky. Despite a regular season that had him ranked among the lowest in points out of the 16 drivers remaining on the playoff grid before his win, Custer proved he can seal the deal. The Cup Series Rookie of the Year now has a chance to quiet the haters who say he’s not deserving of the rookie honor given his 20th place average finish this year. Another win, or even advancing through the first round, could give Custer and his Ford team the momentum needed to make an unexpected run. He’s also been benefiting from the mentorship of his veteran teammate, Kevin Harvick. Custer said he talks with Harvick weekly for pointers about how to approach each track.
Custer: “I’m not the most confident guy out there that’s gonna say that I’m better than all those guys. I know that all of us (rookies) have been pretty competitive this year and I think we’ve all made big strides, and it’s just a matter of, I don’t know, we won at Kentucky!”
Austin Dillon (No. 3)
Dillon (2,005 points) is entering his fourth NASCAR Cup playoffs, secured through a race win at Texas. The odd advantage Dillon has over the field has nothing to do with racing, though. Dillon tested positive for COVID-19 last month and missed a race at the Daytona road course before he was eligible to return. A positive coronavirus test could foil any driver’s chances of advancing in the postseason since he wouldn’t be eligible for points for a missed event. Dillon said he feels fully recovered and hopes he’s developed the virus antibodies at this point. Racing-wise, the focus of Richard Childress Racing and its resources are going to the No. 3 car without teammate Tyler Reddick in the postseason. Despite only two top-five finishes this year, Bristol (sixth), Las Vegas (fourth) and Texas (first) were among Dillon’s best tracks, all of which fall on the playoff schedule.
Dillon: “I love being dismissed. I think it’s great. ... In the Cup Series it’s been a little bit of that and I feel like that’s what propels us and then we sneak up on people. ... The stages, the way they play out, you’ve gotta get points, so we’re going to be very aggressive to getting those points and hopefully mess up a lot of brackets.”
William Byron (No. 24)
Byron (2,007 points) is rolling into his second Cup playoffs fresh off a make-or-break win at Daytona, where he secured his first victory in the series to boost his points standings from barely sliding into the postseason to sitting snugly in the middle of the pack. The Charlotte native has the advantage of an experienced championship crew chief in Team Hendrick’s Chad Knaus, as well as the momentum of two top-five finishes at the latest Dover race (fourth place) and Daytona (first). Byron is in position to point his way through the first round, as he did last year, but will need to find success during a tricky Round of 8 at Las Vegas, Talladega and the Charlotte road course. If he can do it again at a superspeedway, though, he’d become much more likely to take it all.
Byron: “Now having that first win of the season, first win for me, for this team, I feel like we’re more focused on just executing the details of each race. Obviously our goal going into this year was to make it further than we did last year in the playoffs, which was the Round of 12 last year, so if we can make it to the Round of 8 this year, it would be a success for sure.”
Alex Bowman (No. 88)
Bowman (2,009 points) enters his third Cup playoffs with one win at Fontana pre-pandemic. Bowman’s team has built back up after a mid-season lull, when all Hendrick Chevys struggled with speed. He finished fifth at the second Dover race and seventh at Daytona most recently. He posted a second place finish at the first Darlington race this season, and he’s made it through the Round of 16 the last two years. Like Byron, Bowman’s challenge will be getting past the Round of 12. The No. 88 driver has two career top-five finishes at the Charlotte road course, though, so the timing of that race in the second round this year better suits Bowman’s chances for advancing.
Bowman: “The summer was pretty rough on us. We started the season really strong, come back from COVID, we were still really strong and then fell off really hard for the summer, so trying to identify why that happened, what we did wrong and how to get better. We’ve been getting better over the last couple weeks especially, so I think we’re in a good place going into the playoffs.”
Ryan Blaney (No. 12)
Blaney (2,013 points) heads to Darlington with one win at Talladega and ranked seventh in points behind Penske teammates Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski. Blaney’s storyline of the season is similar to that of Jimmie Johnson’s or Kyle Busch’s: strong runs, leading laps then an unfortunately-timed caution or disaster. But as Dale Earnhardt Jr. noted this week, Blaney’s had a ton of speed and has consistently been at the front of the pack, which is why Earnhardt said he would list the No. 12 could as a potential Final Four contender. Even though he has just one win this year, Blaney has earned the most stage points in the field. He has 271 stage points, 33 points over Logano in second (238). Harvick has the third-most (233). If he can capitalize on those leads throughout the postseason and take a checkered flag or two, possibly at Talladega (first place earlier this year) or Martinsville (second), then 2020 could end on a high note for Blaney.
Blaney: “Obviously we’d like to have more wins in the regular season ... but I feel like our team has had more capability this year to win more races and be more competitive. It’s just a shame that it hasn’t happened. Some of that was our doing, some of that you can’t control, but our whole group feels really good. I think our cars are pretty decent right now.”
Martin Truex Jr. (No. 19)
Truex Jr. (2,014 points) returns to the NASCAR playoffs as a Final Four contender. The question is whether he can do it again this year and reclaim the title after his 2017 victory. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver had a slow start to the season, winning his first and only race at Martinsville in June, but since Kansas in late-July, Truex Jr. has finished no lower than fourth place. He went on a five-race streak of third-place finishes, followed by two second-place finishes at the Dover doubleheader and avoided late-lap crashes to finish fourth at Daytona. He’s a dynamic veteran with the ability to tackle any type of course and the experience of racing through the 10-week stretch. His test is now to ride the recent wave and close when it matters.
Truex: “You look at what we’ve done at the last 10 races and I feel like we’ve been a top-three car every single race. We’ve had opportunities to win slip away so I look forward to seeing if we can take those seconds, thirds and fourths and turn them into wins. That’s ultimately what it takes to be able to win the championship.”
Chase Elliott (No. 9)
Elliott (2,020 points) is a playoff regular seeking to break into the Final Four for the first time. He enters his fifth postseason after one of his best years statistically with two wins, 10 top-fives and 15 top-10 finishes. But like teammate Bowman, Elliott said consistency has been the biggest challenge for his Hendrick team, especially in the summer months. Still, the No. 9 said he’s been encouraged by how the team’s raced since Dover, and that his goal is to carry their momentum through to the Final Four while continuing to rack up stage points. After his win at the Daytona road course last month, the Charlotte road course could be another bright spot for the Chevy team.
Elliott: “I would love to get to be a part of that last race and that last event, and really make a run at it and do that. I feel like that’s the thing we haven’t been able to accomplish is making that last race. That’s the goal.”
Joey Logano (No. 22)
Logano (2,022 points) heads to Darlington ranked fourth in points and ready to make a run similar to his 2018 championship path. Logano’s two wins this season came before the pandemic, but he’s still earned the second-most stage points this year behind Penske teammate Blaney. Logano said his Ford team has slowly built back speed, and he believes they’re peaking at the right moment. He has finished in the top-10 in all but one of the last seven races, in which he was leading the field in the final 10 laps at Daytona before a late-lap crash. His challenge will likely be getting ahead of Harvick and Hamlin in the final rounds, but if he can repeat wins at Las Vegas and Phoenix, where he won earlier this season, Logano could again be a surprise champion.
Logano: “It just has that feeling (of 2018) to me throughout the regular season. So I feel like for those reasons, I’m as confident as anybody rolling into this thing, in our race team and myself, because we’ve been here before. We’ve done this before. So we’re ready to rock.”
Brad Keselowski (No. 2)
Keselowski (2,020 points) has had luck fall in his favor throughout the 2020 season, which is something most other drivers can’t say. Both his Coca-Cola 600 win at Charlotte and second win at Bristol were close races determined in the final laps and upended by late cautions. Keselowski’s third victory at New Hampshire, though, saw the Penske driver confidently sail to Victory Lane after getting past Denny Hamlin in the final stage and leading the remaining laps. This is the Ford driver’s ninth Cup playoffs and his fifth consecutive year with three or more wins in the series. But Keselowski, the 2012 Cup champion, hasn’t reached the Championship Four race in the last two years. Keselowski said he put out a call to his team earlier this week about their chances to take it all this year: “Why not us?”
Keselowski: “First off, I don’t like to suck, so that’s a good thing that drives me. If you’re going to do something, do it well. And winning races and going for a championship is, in my opinion, doing something well.”
Denny Hamlin (No. 11)
Hamlin (2,047 points) is one of the two drivers who already seems like a shoe-in to make it to the finals based on his point lead over the field. Hamlin won six races this year, beginning with the season-opening Daytona 500 and followed by victories at Darlington, Homestead, Pocono, Kansas and Dover. Only two of those tracks, Darlington and Kansas, sit on the playoff schedule, and Kevin Harvick won the first race at Darlington, but Hamlin has earned 15 top-fives and 17 top-10s during the regular season, and he’s well-positioned to make a deep run into the postseason given his Joe Gibbs Racing team’s speed and history at the playoff tracks. (Hamlin won last year’s playoff races at Kansas and Phoenix.) There are fewer Toyotas and teammates on Hamlin’s side than there are Fords for Harvick heading into Darlington, but Hamlin said he’s focused on himself rather than the rivalry, and he’s not discounting any other driver as he tries to secure his first series championship in his 14-year Cup career.
Hamlin: “I want to see our momentum continue. We’re not going to race any differently, especially in the first round. I think that I’m going to be very aggressive, try and get more wins. I just want to see who shows up from the competition standpoint that maybe people have slept on or maybe hasn’t shown everything they’ve had until the playoffs started.”
Kevin Harvick (No. 4)
Harvick (2,057 points) basically went on a tear all year. Every few weeks of 2020, Harvick won another race to further climb up the all-time wins list. He currently has 56 career Cup wins, tying him with Kyle Busch for the ninth-most. Seven of those victories came this season, the first of which was at Darlington in the first race back during the pandemic. Harvick returns to that track this weekend looking to continue straight through on that tear during the next 10 races. The Stewart-Haas Racing driver posted an average finish of 6.6 at all tracks this season and said his team’s fast car setup and improved pit stop speed were factors for his success. He is the 2014 Cup Series champion looking to add 2020 champion to his title.
Harvick: “Starting the playoffs, our theory is not that you change gears and try to do something different. It’s, ‘You better be ready and have already been in that mode.’”
