NASCAR Cup race at Michigan prediction: Who will win, and a longshot to watch

Predicting a winner for the next NASCAR Cup race might be a fool’s errand considering how the end of last weekend’s race at Indianapolis played out. As a refresher, the curbing came apart, more than a dozen cars wrecked, the leader was spun out by a driver who had a penalty and suddenly A.J. Allmendinger won.

That’s not how I would have predicted the race to finish, and if you did, then kudos. I’ll give it my best shot this weekend for the Cup race at Michigan. The series is returning to an oval after two road course races, and we could see a different set of drivers up front, but I imagine there will be consistency with points leaders at the front.

For example, Kevin Harvick won the last three races at Michigan, but Kyle Larson won three races in a row at the 2-mile oval between 2016-17 when he was driving for Chip Ganassi Racing. (Joey Logano and Kurt Busch have also each won three races at the track.)

Larson, who’s starting on the pole, finished in the top three in the last two races this season, winning at Watkins Glen, and while his last two oval finishes weren’t as strong, he’s returning to a track where he’s typically done well and with better equipment.

Who will win the NASCAR race at Michigan?

I think this is Larson’s race, especially considering teams will use the same aero/engine package used for races at Atlanta, Charlotte, Homestead, Las Vegas, Pocono and Texas — all tracks where the No. 5 driver either won or posted a top-five finish this season. The 550 horsepower, high downforce package was also used at Kansas (where Larson finished 19th).

The other cars to watch are those of Joe Gibbs Racing drivers Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch. Truex in the top five in the last four races at Michigan, Busch has finished well at the tracks using the same race package this year and Hamlin’s been consistent at past Michigan races and at tracks with the 550 package this year. Plus, Hamlin is still going for his first win this season with just two more regular-season races left on the schedule. Maybe we see Hamlin’s first win in 2021? He’s due for some good karma after last weekend.

Longshot: Tyler Reddick. He won the first two stages of the race at the Indy road course and he’s been a consistent top-10 finisher at the previously mentioned tracks. Reddick’s latest Michigan finishes weren’t anything special (18th and 24th), but he’s on the points bubble along with Harvick and Austin Dillon. Harvick will be a driver to watch as well as he fights to protect his playoff spot at a track he dominated last season.

The FireKeepers Casino 400 is 3 p.m. Sunday on NBCSN, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR. The race is 400 miles (200 laps) with stage breaks on laps 60, 120 and 200.

NASCAR race at Michigan: How to watch

• Race: FireKeepers Casino 400
• When: Sunday, Aug. 22
• Time: 3 p.m. EST
• TV: NBCSN
• Radio: MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
• Distance: 400 miles (200 Laps) with stages ending on laps 60, 120 and 200

NASCAR at Michigan starting lineup

Alexandra Andrejev

The Charlotte Observer

NASCAR and Charlotte FC beat reporter Alex Andrejev joined The Observer in January 2020 following an internship at The Washington Post. She is a two-time APSE award winner for her NASCAR beat coverage and National Motorsports Press Association award winner. She is the host of McClatchy’s podcast “Payback” about women’s soccer. Support my work with a digital subscription