NASCAR Cup race at Darlington prediction: Who will win the first playoff race
.JPG "NASCAR playoff driver Kyle Larson (5) battles teammate Chase Elliott (9) at Michigan International Speedway last month. Larson is our pick to win the playoff race Sunday night at Darlington.")
NASCAR’s Cup Series begins its 10-race playoff battle this weekend at Darlington after a cut-throat regular-season finale at Daytona last Saturday. The Cook Out Southern 500 starts at 6 p.m. Sunday on NBCSN.
Sixteen drivers are vying for a win, or enough points, to secure a spot in the next postseason Round of 12 opening in three weeks at Las Vegas.
Kyle Larson, NASCAR’s 2021 regular-season Cup champion, starts sixth on Sunday and is the favorite to win, according to bet MGM odds. Daytona 400 winner Ryan Blaney is on the pole with Denny Hamlin in the front row, as determined by NASCAR’s performance-based metric qualifying formula.
Hamlin is one of three playoff drivers without a win this season along with Kevin Harvick and Tyler Reddick. Hamlin and Harvick, however, lead all active drivers in wins at Darlington with three each and could nab a first 2021 victory this weekend at Darlington’s 1.366-mile paved oval.
However, neither team has shown consistent strength this season like they did last year, when both drivers scored at least one with at Darlington (Harvick won two races). Instead, it was Martin Truex Jr. who won this season’s first Darlington race in May. His No. 19 team was also dominant on tracks with the 750 horsepower package earlier this season, which makes Truex another favorite to win on Sunday.
The strike against Truex is that his team has been a lull over the last three races, averaging an 18th-place finish in those events.
While three Gibbs drivers — Truex, Hamlin and Kyle Busch — finished in the top five at the last Darlington race, Larson’s my pick to win. He finished second at Darlington in May and the No. 5 team’s performance hasn’t significantly dipped at recent races (sure, he finished 20th at Daytona, but it was a wreck-filled Daytona). Barring unpredictable wrecks this weekend, my prediction is that Larson makes a postseason statement.
How to watch NASCAR Cup race at Darlington
- Race: Cook Out Southern 500
- When: Sunday, Sept. 5
- Time: 6 p.m. EST
- TV: NBCSN
- Radio: MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
- Distance: 501.3 miles (367 Laps) with stages ending on laps 115, 230 and 367
NASCAR at Darlington Cup starting order
| Order | Driver | Car No. |
| 1 | Ryan Blaney | 12 |
| 2 | Denny Hamlin | 11 |
| 3 | Kurt Busch | 1 |
| 4 | Chase Elliott | 9 |
| 5 | Alex Bowman | 48 |
| 6 | Kyle Larson | 5 |
| 7 | Tyler Reddick | 8 |
| 8 | Aric Almirola | 10 |
| 9 | Kevin Harvick | 4 |
| 10 | Martin Truex Jr. | 19 |
| 11 | Joey Logano | 22 |
| 12 | Kyle Busch | 18 |
| 13 | Christopher Bell | 20 |
| 14 | William Byron | 24 |
| 15 | Michael McDowell | 34 |
| 16 | Brad Keselowski | 2 |
| 17 | Bubba Wallace | 23 |
| 18 | Ryan Preece | 37 |
| 19 | Ryan Newman | 6 |
| 20 | Justin Haley | 77 |
| 21 | Austin Dillon | 3 |
| 22 | Erik Jones | 43 |
| 23 | Ross Chastain | 42 |
| 24 | Chase Briscoe | 14 |
| 25 | Corey LaJoie | 7 |
| 26 | Daniel Suárez | 99 |
| 27 | BJ McLeod | 78 |
| 28 | Josh Bilicki | 52 |
| 29 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 47 |
| 30 | Matt DiBenedetto | 21 |
| 31 | Cole Custer | 41 |
| 32 | Anthony Alfredo | 38 |
| 33 | Cody Ware | 51 |
| 34 | Chris Buescher | 17 |
| 35 | Joey Gase | 15 |
| 36 | James Davison | 53 |
| 37 | Quin Houff | 00 |
NASCAR Cup playoff standings
| Order | Driver | Points |
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 2052 |
| 2 | Ryan Blaney | 2024 |
| 3 | Martin Truex Jr. | 2024 |
| 4 | Kyle Busch | 2022 |
| 5 | Chase Elliott | 2021 |
| 6 | Alex Bowman | 2015 |
| 7 | Denny Hamlin | 2015 |
| 8 | William Byron | 2014 |
| 9 | Joey Logano | 2013 |
| 10 | Brad Keselowski | 2008 |
| 11 | Kurt Busch | 2008 |
| 12 | Christopher Bell | 2005 |
| 13 | Michael McDowell | 2005 |
| 14 | Aric Almirola | 2005 |
| 15 | Tyler Reddick | 2003 |
| 16 | Kevin Harvick | 2002 |
This story was originally published September 4, 2021 at 7:30 PM.
