Panthers have deep-threat WRs and Cam Newton’s arm. So where has the deep ball been?
The Carolina Panthers have a problem with their deep vertical passing game.
Or they don’t.
It just depends on whom you ask.
Here’s the reality: Carolina is 1 for 14 on attempted passes of 20 yards or more, through five games. The one completion? A 23-yard touchdown grab over the top of a defensive back by receiver Devin Funchess last week at Washington.
But quarterback Cam Newton is also completing 65.9 percent of his passes, which is so far a career high. But they’re going for an average of 10.3 yards per completion, which so far is a career low (his career high for a season is 13.8 yards per completion).
His 6.8 yards per attempt is actually right around his career average of 7.0.
And remember, underneath routes and checkdowns have been emphasized as a huge part of offensive coordinator Norv Turner’s plan for Newton. That’s been the company line since Turner arrived in January.
“We just want to execute, that’s it,” Newton said on Wednesday. “When we get into the logistic things of football, and what the defense is giving and what they aren’t, you can’t just go down and chuck the football downfield and just expect, ‘Well, we didn’t take shots in the game.’
“That’s not what good teams or offenses do. We don’t let the defense dictate to us, we dictate to the defense. So that’s been our approach. For pretty much whatever Norv and his offensive staff calls, it’s my job as the quarterback to execute it. If I see anything otherwise, it’s my job to make the proper audible. If not, then run the play.”
Turner said Thursday that the way defenses have played Carolina and Newton in the first few weeks of the season has not allowed for many deep shots.
But just like Newton’s rushing ability has been a huge weapon for him and the Panthers offense over the years, so has the threat of the deep pass.
Newton has averaged 22 completions of 20-plus yards per season in seven NFL seasons.
For that threat to be missing removes that layer.
“Well, we haven’t had many opportunities, and the ones we’ve had, we haven’t had a great deal of success,” Turner said. “We’re continuing to work on being a complete passing game, and a complete offense. That’s an area where we need to create some explosive plays.”
Concerned, or not?
Head coach Ron Rivera said he’s not concerned that the Panthers have just one deep completion, because the team is putting together wins.
“It would be good to expand on it, but I’m not concerned about it,” he said Wednesday. “We have won three games. I know we’ve lost two, but we’ve won three. ... I think the quarterback is very efficient with (the ball) right now. There’s no reason to panic.”
Newton said Wednesday that the loss to Washington last week is the reason anybody is putting the deep ball on a milk carton in the first place.
“Everything was all good just a week ago,” he said. “But now, all of the sudden, we have one loss or a loss that we know we were capable of winning the game, then everybody wants to ask questions about deep passes, ask questions about certain players.”
Torrey Smith has been the main target when Newton has looked deep. And the Panthers traded for Smith this spring while stating he would be the deep threat they have searched for since letting Ted Ginn Jr. walk to the New Orleans Saints after the 2016 season.
But it’s not just about the targeted receiver, or the quarterback.
How a deep ball is born
There are many things that go into completing a deep pass.
“It’s so many different things (that have to work together),” Smith said Wednesday. “It’s the offensive line, those are the guys who don’t get enough credit. A little bit of pressure one way may make the quarterback want to get off it. Or if we (receivers) don’t get off clean, it throws the timing off a little bit so Cam may want to get off (the read).
“There’s so many things that go into play with the deep ball. I think sometimes people think you’re just going back and dialing it up.”
Carolina’s offensive line has had to get creative with its protections after injuries sidelined both the starting tackles.
And another potential deep threat, Curtis Samuel, is still working into the rotation in a limited capacity after a heart procedure sidelined him for four weeks.
“Receivers, protection certainly is a part of it,” said Turner. “We’ve had two or three times where we’ve had two or three guys running free, and Cam threw it somewhere else. We’ve had a couple of times where he didn’t have time to get the ball off. And we’ve had a couple that were just missed.”
High risk, high reward
A deep ball is a statistical risk in the first place.
Last year, the average completion percentage of the top 10 deep ball-throwers in the NFL, according to NextGen Stats, was 39.7. To hit near that mark, and keeping in mind the small sample size so early in the year, Newton would have had to so far have completed five of his 14 deep attempts.
But there are a few reasons why the risk is worth it.
If completed, a deep pass can change momentum. It flips the field, and provides a boost of energy.
“When you’re able to get it, it changes the game,” Smith said. “So it’s always worth the risk.”
But sometimes, deep balls are also thrown to try to draw a defensive pass interference flag, which affects the defense in a different way.
Smith was gifted in this particular facet while in Philadelphia last season, according to Eagles coach Doug Pederson.
“I’ll tell you this. One of the things with Torrey Smith, and this was last year,” said Pederson on a conference call this week, “is that he’s one of the top receivers if not the top receiver in the NFL that draws DPI penalties down the field, for whatever reason.
“It’s a strange stat. But he was always one of those guys who we felt if we put him down the field, he was either going to catch it or maybe draw a penalty.”
That hasn’t been the case in Charlotte this season for Smith.
“It can be effective, most certainly,” Rivera said. “But at the same time, the referees have to call it. You can send a guy deep all you want, but then it’s how it’s interpreted more than anything else.”
Rivera seemed optimistic on Thursday that the deep ball would start to pop.
“It’s really just about the opportunities as we continue to go forward with this offense,” he said. “As I said yesterday, we are 3-2. We have won three games doing the things that we’ve done. But I just think it’s a matter of time. We have the long routes being run. The quarterback makes decisions on what he wants to do.
“I think that’s the point that everybody has to understand, is that they’re coming. It’s all a part of the offense.”
This story was originally published October 18, 2018 at 4:56 PM.