Panthers myth-buster: Will pass protection hold up against Ravens’ rush?

Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t. So what do the numbers say about how the Carolina Panthers’ offensive line will fare against the Baltimore Ravens’ league-leading pass rush?

Hypothesis: The Ravens lead the league in sacks,

but the Panthers’ short passing game and pass blocking strengths should keep Cam Newton upright for most of the day.

Nailed It

▪ The Panthers are tied for fifth in the NFL in fewest sacks allowed with 10 through seven games. The makeshift offensive line quickly gelled, allowing a sack on just 4.5 percent of Newton’s dropbacks — good for ninth in the league.

▪ Although the Ravens’ 27 sacks are the class of the NFL, 11 of them came against Tennessee in Week 6. In fact, 22 of their sacks this season came against three of the league’s worst pass-protecting teams — six against Buffalo (third-most sacks allowed), five against Cleveland (most sacks allowed) and the remaining 11 against the Titans (seventh-most sacks allowed).

▪ Building off that, Baltimore looked less impressive against some of the stouter offensive lines it played this season. Terrell Suggs and company brought down Denver’s Case Keenum three times, Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger and New Orleans’ Drew Brees once apiece, and didn’t sack Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton at all. Those teams have allowed the 16th, second and 13th-fewest sacks in the NFL, respectively (Pittsburgh and New Orleans are tied).

This ain’t it, chief

▪ The Panthers’ pass protection numbers are a bit skewed, as well. They gave up three sacks to Dallas, which is statistically the best pass-rushing team they’ve played this season (ninth in the NFL). But the seven combined sacks they gave up to Atlanta, Cincinnati, the New York Giants, Washington and Philadelphia came against the league’s 24th, 20th, 30th, 24th and 15th-best pass-rushing teams, respectively.

▪ Beyond their pass rush, the Ravens feature the league’s stingiest defense in terms of yards allowed per game and allow the second-fewest passing yards per game. They rank first, fifth and seventh in the league in average passing yards allowed to the short left, short middle and short right areas of the field, respectively. That success against the short passing game could force Newton to hang onto the ball longer than he’s used to.

▪ Baltimore allows the fewest points per game this season and Carolina has trailed by three scores in each of its past two games. If the Panthers work themselves into another large deficit, the Ravens’ defense will see a lot more obvious passing situations.

Final thought

The Ravens’ pass rush is undeniably good but has taken advantage of some of the worst offenses in the league. Their success could be a difference-maker against some of the NFL’s more timid passers, but nearly 18 percent of Newton’s pass attempts have gone into tight coverage, per NFL Next Gen Stats, good for 11th-most in the league.

Baltimore won’t allow many clean passing lanes but Newton hasn’t let that stop him so far. It’s a tough call, but with Carolina returning home for the first time in two weeks, the Panthers have the edge.

This story was originally published October 26, 2018 at 3:36 PM.