Panthers mythbuster: ‘Get-right’ game in Detroit a chance for D.J. Moore?

Men lie, women lie, numbers stay the same. So what do the numbers say about Carolina Panthers wide recevier DJ Moore’s outlook this weekend against the Detroit Lions?

Theory

Moore will have a big day against a Lions secondary more concerned with taking away the deep ball than the underneath routes.

Nailed it

▪ Moore’s opportunities have more than doubled since he started filling in for Torrey Smith in the Panthers’ starting lineup. During his current three-game stretch as a starter, the rookie has played 80 percent of the team’s offensive snaps. Compare that with his 38 percent snap percentage over the first six games of the season.

▪ The Lions allow the seventh-fewest passing yards per game in the NFL, largely thanks to their ability to keep the ball in front of them. The only other top-10 pass defense Moore’s played against since his increase in playing time? The Baltimore Ravens, who he gashed for 90 yards on five catches.

▪ The top five receiving totals against Detroit this season have been at least 84 yards, averaging four catches for 52 yards on short routes alone. However, all five receivers also caught at least one pass for 20 or more yards, and all five scored at least one touchdown.

▪ Detroit’s defense is ranked 21st, 24th and 31st in the NFL in average yards gained on passes to the short left, short middle and short right areas of the field, respectively.

▪ Moore ranks second in the league in average cushion at the line of scrimmage at 7.3 yards, and is eighth in the league in average yards after catch above expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats, meaning he can make a defense pay for giving him space — which the Lions may do to limit any Carolina deep passes.

This ain’t it, chief

▪ Despite his increase in playing time, Moore has only led the Panthers in targets once and has just 36 yards on five catches since his career day against Baltimore.

▪ Detroit allows the fifth-most rushing yards per game in the NFL, seemingly paving the way for a red-hot Christian McCaffrey to remain the focal point of Carolina’s offense — on the ground and through the air.

▪ Twelve of the top 20 receiving days against the Lions defense have been for fewer than 60 receiving yards — including 22 yards (and a touchdown) on four catches by the league’s third-leading receiver, Adam Thielen.

Final Thought

After looking over the numbers, it doesn’t seem like there’s much Detroit will do to stop Moore from getting his. Sure, the Lions held most of the receivers they’ve played against to fewer than 60 receiving yards, but that’s not an impressive stat when you consider who they’ve faced. Quincy Enunwa, Michael Gallup and Pierre Garcon shouldn’t represent the measuring stick for a team’s pass defense. The receivers of note they did play — such as Davante Adams and Allen Robinson — put up absurd numbers against this secondary.

That’s not to say Moore is on the same level as Adams or Robinson, but he is quite comparable to Danny Amendola, David Moore and Anthony Miller, who recorded 97, 84 and 122 receiving yards against the Lions, respectively. My guess is the Moore gets back on track this week but if it’s not him, don’t be surprised if Curtis Samuel makes some noise as a player who can make something happen if a defense gives him space.