Panthers mythbuster: After struggles, has defense figured out how to stop tight ends?

Men lie, women lie, numbers stay the same. So what do the numbers say about the Panthers recent run of success covering opposing tight ends?

Theory

After allowing an opposing tight end to score in seven of their first nine games — including five straight games from Week 6 to Week 10 — Carolina has kept its past two opponents’ tight ends out of the end zone. However, Cameron Brate will break that drought this weekend.

Nailed it

▪ Brate played a season-high 70 percent of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps last week in the team’s first game since placing tight end O.J. Howard on injured reserve. In 17 career games in which he’s played at least 60 percent of his team’s snaps, Brate has scored 10 touchdowns.

▪ Buccaneers coach Dirk Koetter complimented the chemistry Brate has with quarterback Jameis Winston — and he has a point. Brate has scored 21 touchdowns in his career, 18 on throws by Winston, who will start for the Bucs this Sunday.

▪ While their two straight games without allowing an opposing tight end to score is a season best, the Panthers haven’t faced a tight end with more than two touchdowns or 225 receiving yards this season in either of their past two games.

▪ Although Brate didn’t do much in his last game against Carolina, Howard — who only played 55 percent of Tampa Bay’s snaps against the Panthers in Week 9 — caught four passes for 53 yards and two touchdowns.

This ain’t it, chief

▪ In seven career games against the Panthers, Brate has 13 catches for 177 yards and zero touchdowns — that’s an average of 1.8 catches for 25 yards per game.

Final thoughts

As you can see, there isn’t a lot of evidence suggesting Brate won’t score against Carolina this weekend. His numbers against the Panthers are meager at best but his increased usage coupled with Winston starting at quarterback paints an optimistic picture for the Harvard product.

Perhaps the most suggestive stat of all, however, is Brate’s usage in the red zone. Since Winston’s rookie season in 2015, Brate has reeled in 23 of 41 red zone targets for a whopping 18 touchdowns. He’s scored on 44 percent of his red zone targets over the past four seasons, including four of his seven in 2018.

Considering the Panthers are currently the second-worst red zone defense in the NFL, allowing touchdowns on 75 percent of their opponents trips inside the 20, Brate is a safe bet to find the end zone come Sunday.