The disappointing case of Matt Paradis, run defense, and Panthers’ salary cap conundrum
At 5-4 midway through this season, the Carolina Panthers are still in the NFL playoff picture. But to remain there against a suddenly-inspired Atlanta Falcons team, it’s going to take serious improvement.
And there’s no area where that growth is more necessary than the team’s run defense.
Simply put, the Panthers’ run defense has been arguably the NFL’s worst this season. While Carolina is allowing the fourth-most rushing yards in the league (136.7 per game), it more importantly — and disappointingly — has ceded a league-high 17 rushing scores. That’s on top of a league-worst 5.2 rushing yards allowed per carry.
That incapability cost the Panthers against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, as Aaron Jones ran amok for three touchdowns. Allowing the Atlanta Falcons to do the same this week doesn’t bode well for the Panthers’ chances.
That’s where this week’s mailbag kicks off — trying to explain what has gone so horribly wrong in stopping the run:
Do the Panthers seem lost against the run in their 3-4 look to you? Is it the scheme or is it personnel?
This is something I’ve been worried about since training camp, and those apprehensions have come to fruition.
In the Panthers’ new 3-4 scheme, which they switched to this summer, there’s a premium placed on speedy edge rushers. And the results have been noteworthy, resurrecting a dormant pass rush that ranked No. 27 in the NFL in sacks in 2018. That wasn’t a sustainable formula for Carolina to have defensive success, so coach Ron Rivera did something about it with a schematic change. As a result, the Panthers lead the NFL in sacks (36) and are on pace to set a franchise record in that same area.
The thing is, while adding pass-rushing talents like Bruce Irvin and Brian Burns has had a positive effect, it also inherently comes with a negative.
In Carolina’s 3-4, the three down defense linemen — think Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe — occupy the blocks of interior offensive linemen. That leaves two outside linebackers, guys like Irvin and Mario Addison, to rush the passer.
The problem is, that also means there are only Luke Kuechly and Shaq Thompson in at linebacker behind those guys. Each of them is tasked with defending essentially half the field, and with such large coverage responsibilities, it can be more difficult to get in the right position. That means if an interior offensive linemen gets upfield to block them, or Kuechly or Thompson miss a tackle, the running back has grass in front of him; that also partially explains why Carolina’s secondary has had to step up in run support so often.
A more multiple approach, with more of the 4-3 concepts Carolina ran in past years, might be helpful at reversing the trend. But also, if you’re going to go all out for speed and the pass rush, other areas of your defense are going to suffer as a result.
Is Matt Paradis still secretly banged up? Has the team been disappointed in his performance?
Paradis signed a three-year contract with the Panthers this offseason, but his first half season in Charlotte hasn’t gone according to plan.
Through nine games, Paradis is graded as Pro Football Focus’ No. 32 center. There are 32 NFL teams; you do the math.
Additionally, on the game-deciding goal-line run against the Packers, Paradis and left guard Greg Van Roten got split by a Packers linebacker who stopped Christian McCaffrey’s momentum. While Carolina’s chances of winning in Green Bay weren’t overwhelming, that missed block ensured they lost.
Paradis is still recovering from a gruesome broken leg suffered midway through last year, and there were lingering ankle issues that naturally occur with that sort of recovery. He hasn’t been listed on the team’s injury reports, so that suggests he’s relatively healthy. Still, recovering from that sort of injury takes time, and it may take more time before Paradis’ leg is back to full strength.
Will Grier has kind of been the forgotten man at quarterback. How is he progressing in practice?
Truthfully, we don’t get to see a ton of live scrimmages during the media portion of Panthers practice. It’s mostly stretching and team/individual drills, not full 11-on-11 work.
With that said, it’s tough to give a complete evaluation of the Panthers’ rookie quarterback. The team took Grier in the third round because it liked his leadership and touch on deep passes; both of those things were on display throughout training camp and the preseason.
But Grier was far from a finished product then, struggling with accuracy and making split-second reads.
The way coaches and his teammates have spoken about Grier, everything points to him having improved throughout the season. Before he was placed on injured reserve, Cam Newton sat on the sideline with Grier for almost the entirely of the 49ers game. Grier won’t truly reach his potential without reps, but for now, it’s hard not to imagine his understanding of the game has grown since the summer.
Looking ahead at this offseason and available salary cap space, can the Panthers realistically re-sign Cam Newton, Shaq Thompson and James Bradberry while also extending Christian McCaffrey?
There’s a lot here.
First, Newton doesn’t need to be re-signed just yet, as he’s still under contract through 2020. He’ll count for about $21 million against next year’s salary cap, but the team would save $19 million of that if it cut or traded Newton.
Doing so would free up more money for Thompson, Bradberry and McCaffrey, although it’s nothing close to a guarantee. As is, figuring in yearly salary-cap growth, the Panthers should have roughly $50 million in available cap space for 2020, per Spotrac.
Figuring who the Panthers can and can’t re-sign does require some predicting, as we can’t know how markets will evolve come this spring. For example, take Bradberry. Given his importance to Carolina’s defense and his growth into a legitimate No. 1 cornerback, it wouldn’t at all be surprising to see him earn in the $11-14 million per year range in free agency. For Thompson, it could be anywhere from $9-13 million given his breakout season next to Kuechly. McCaffrey is still under his rookie contract and will command top running back money at some point, but it’s still not a given the team re-signs him this offseason.
As for who might not be re-signed? The Panthers have a number of important guys with contracts expiring, such as McCoy or Daryl Williams. I’d be surprised if either of them is back at their current price point, but the team would prefer to keep someone like McCoy around.
This story was originally published November 14, 2019 at 10:27 AM.
