Panthers scouting report: Pressuring Drew Brees must be a top priority vs. Saints
With six games to go, there’s a lot on the line when the Panthers face the Saints in New Orleans on Sunday. Here’s a scouting report of what to expect from the big NFC South matchup.
WHEN THE PANTHERS PASS THE BALL ...
Kyle Allen has to be better than last week. There’s no way around it. The Panthers cannot afford to turn the ball over against the Saints, much less throw three interceptions within their opponent’s 25-yard line like Allen did in the loss to the Falcons. Allen set a career-high passing mark in each of the last two games, and there’s a chance he’ll have to do so again in New Orleans considering the Saints’ strong run defense. The Panthers had success against the Saints in Allen’s first career start last year, but New Orleans will be better prepared for him this season, and it won’t be resting any starters. While the Saints did intercept Jameis Winston four times last week, they have only had four interceptions in their nine other games this year. The bigger issue for Carolina will be the offensive line protecting Allen in a loud Superdome after giving up five sacks last week at home.
Advantage: Saints
WHEN THE PANTHERS RUN THE BALL ...
Christian McCaffrey will have success. At this point it doesn’t matter what run defense the Panthers go up against, there really isn’t much that is stopping McCaffrey this season. He is currently averaging 105.9 rushing yards per game. No player has finished a season with a higher average since 2016 (Ezekiel Elliott, 108.7). He is also tied for the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns with 11 (Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones). But this will be one of the rushing attack’s biggest challenges this season. The Saints are allowing just 85.3 rushing yards per game (third-fewest). They have not given up a single 100-yard rusher this year. This will be an interesting battle that the Panthers must win early to have a chance at the upset. But there is a reason McCaffrey is getting the attention he is.
Advantage: Panthers
WHEN THE SAINTS PASS THE BALL ...
The Panthers better be getting pressure on Drew Brees. Coach Ron Rivera mentioned this week that the performance the Falcons had when upsetting the Saints two weeks ago was one they are paying attention to in their preparations, and it should be. Atlanta won that game partly because they were able to get pressure on Brees, sacking him six times. The Panthers are 4-0 when they have four or more sacks and are still tied for the league lead in sacks with the 49ers (39). Making Brees uncomfortable early will be huge, especially against a team that doesn’t make mistakes. Brees and Teddy Bridgewater have combined to throw just five interceptions, and as a result the Saints have the fewest giveaways in the NFL (six). Oh, and Michael Thomas just happens to be the only receiver averaging over 100 yards per game this season (114.1). He will likely be matched up against James Bradberry, who did well overall against Julio Jones last week. But stopping Brees will still be a significant challenge for this defense.
Advantage: Saints
WHEN THE SAINTS RUN THE BALL ...
The Panthers will hope to replicate their performance from last week. The one area that Carolina had success in against the Falcons was stopping the run, holding them to just 54 yards on the ground and 2.1 yards per attempt. It was only the second time this season that the Panthers have held an opponent to less than 100 rushing yards. Prior to the loss to the Falcons, the Panthers run defense had a dreadful three-game stretch when it allowed 6 yards per carry and 10 touchdowns. The Saints average 107.5 rushing yards per game (17th), and Alvin Kamara has yet to rush for 100 yards this season. Carolina will need to keep it that way, but it has yet to prove it can consistently stop the run.
Advantage: Saints
SPECIAL TEAMS
Joey Slye has been fine as of late, but Saints kicker Wil Lutz has been better. Slye has made 73.9 percent of his field-goal attempts this season, and Lutz has made 84 percent. The bigger issue for Carolina on special teams is the fact that they gave up a punt-return touchdown to former Panther Kenjon Barner last week. They can’t afford those types of mistakes against the Saints. New Orleans returner Deonte Harris is one of three NFL players with a punt return TD this season, but he’s out for this game with a hamstring injury. But after giving up the touchdown last week, there’s no way to give the Panthers the edge here.
Advantage: Saints
COACHING
Despite not having their future Hall of Fame quarterback on the field, the Saints went 5-0 in Teddy Bridgewater’s starts this season. Sean Payton’s squad has put together some impressive wins despite key players dealing with injuries. Meanwhile, the Panthers are coming off a 29-3 loss at home. And, yes, the Saints lost to the Falcons as well, but the Panthers have been blown out twice this season. Payton’s squad has adjusted better.
Advantage: Saints
PREDICTION
This is it. The Panthers have put themselves in a situation where this NFC South matchup in New Orleans has pretty much become a must-win. Allen will have a better game than last week and will show some of the fire that he had in Green Bay. Carolina will be able to pressure Brees some and likely can put together another strong run-defense performance. But this is a Panthers defense that thrives on turnovers and that’s just not going to happen against the Saints. The Panthers are 0-5 when they are losing at halftime. New Orleans will get up early in this one and hold on.
Saints 27, Panthers 24
