Scouting report: Panthers will try to avoid 8-game losing streak with 2019 finale vs. Saints
This is it. The final game of the Panthers’ 2019 season. Does Carolina have a shot at pulling off the upset vs. New Orleans? Can it put on a show for the hometown crowd and avoid ending the season on an eight-game losing streak? Let’s break down what to expect from the game in this week’s scouting report.
WHEN THE PANTHERS PASS THE BALL …
Will Grier will probably once again throw a lot of short passes to Christian McCaffrey. Last week against the Colts, McCaffrey caught 15 passes for 119 yards. No other Panthers pass catcher had more than three receptions. The offense had success getting the ball to the running back and while part of that was because it got down in the first half, expect the goal early to be to get the ball to McCaffrey through the air again.
Needing just 67 receiving yards to become the third player in NFL history with 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards in a season, McCaffrey will be targeted early and often so he can reach that record and possibly be taken out of the game. Even without the record, he would probably be Grier’s most popular target, especially with WR DJ Moore out (concussion). McCaffrey has 19 first down receptions since week 13, most among NFL running backs.
The Saints will be without three starting defensive backs, which could give the Panthers a chance. But with this being Grier’s second career start and New Orleans having had success creating pressure against Carolina’s offensive line in their first meeting, it’s hard to give the Panthers the edge.
Advantage: Saints
WHEN THE PANTHERS RUN THE BALL …
They may have a hard time. The Saints allow just 94.7 rushing yards per game (fifth-fewest) and have given up 11 rushing touchdowns (tied for ninth-fewest).
But when these teams met in Week 12, the Panthers put up 121 rushing yards, including 64 by McCaffrey. What could be an issue for Carolina? McCaffrey averaged 2.9 yards per carry in that game, his third-lowest average this season.
With Grier making his second start and the Panthers trying to get McCaffrey as many touches as possible (there are a few records he could set Sunday), the Saints will be well aware that the Panthers are trying to run the ball. Even still, this is the one area Carolina could surprise with its success.
Advantage: Panthers
WHEN THE SAINTS PASS THE BALL …
Drew Brees is playing. And with the way the Panthers defense has looked as a whole during their seven-game losing streak, that’s all you need to know.
Against the Panthers earlier this season, he completed 76.9 percent of his passes. The interception Tre Boston had in that game vs. the Saints is one of just two takeaways the Panthers defense has created in the last seven games (both by Boston).
Michael Thomas set the record for the most catches in a season in NFL history last week. He has caught 145 of his 176 targets this year. Brees leads the league in completion percentage (75.3 percent) in part because of Thomas. During the seven-game losing streak, opposing passers have completed 63.8 percent of passes against the Panthers (12th-highest percentage). So Brees’ success should only continue Sunday.
Carolina’s inability to create turnovers (with Brees having just four interceptions this year) will remain a big issue for this defense.
Advantage: Saints
WHEN THE SAINTS RUN THE BALL …
Let’s keep this simple. Beginning with Ron Rivera’s final Panthers game (loss to Washington), Carolina has allowed 150-plus rushing yards in four straight games. Teams have combined to score 29 rushing touchdowns against the Panthers, most in the NFL, and two away from allowing the same number as the 2008 Lions, who went 0-16.
Anyone and everyone has run on the Panthers. It doesn’t matter what their numbers have looked like coming into the game. There’s no reason to believe Sunday will be any different.
Advantage: Saints
SPECIAL TEAMS
Because it’s the end of the year and the holiday season, let’s give Joey Slye a bit of credit. It’s against this Saints team that he had his worst performance of the year, missing a field goal and two PATS, almost costing him his job.
Since then? He hasn’t missed a kick. Does Saints kicker Wil Lutz have a better field goal average (88.9 percent)? Yes. Slye has made 77.4 percent of field goals this year. Lutz has also missed one PAT.
But what loses the Panthers the advantage here is giving up two punt return touchdowns last week to Nyheim Hines. Interim head coach Perry Fewell said that they practiced punting out of bounds this week. That’s not what you want to hear about a special teams unit.
Advantage: Saints
COACHING
Fewell has done a fine job in a very tough position. Like Greg Olsen said of Grier last week, he was pretty much put in an “impossible” situation.
This will be his final game as interim head coach and he has said multiple times how much he wants to come out with a win. But Fewell is going up against Sean Payton, who is currently in the conversation for Coach of the Year. With the team’s backup, Teddy Bridgewater in, the Saints went 5-0. Payton has proven again this year why he is one of the best coaches in the NFL.
Advantage: Saints
PREDICTION
Realistically, the Panthers could keep this competitive for a stretch. This is the last time this group will be together. But against a Saints team with much to play for, the Panthers just haven’t shown they can do enough. McCaffrey will break the record and Grier may show flashes. But Brees should have success against the Carolina defense and the Panthers could get down early in this game, as has become a theme. They may get points late, but this could be ugly.
Saints 34, Panthers 24
