How the Panthers can learn from the 49ers and go from last place to the Super Bowl

Exactly one year ago, the San Francisco 49ers were where the Panthers are today. At home, watching the Super Bowl from their couches after a disappointing season.

Fast forward a year and the 49ers are getting set to play in Super Bowl LIV. After five straight seasons of playoff drought and a .500 or worse record, San Francisco clinched the NFC’s number one overall seed and played two home playoff games to set up an opportunity for a sixth Super Bowl title.

The Panthers, still hoping to win their first championship, have missed the playoffs for a second straight year. They have yet to have back-to-back winning seasons in franchise history. One of the team’s best-ever players, linebacker Luke Kuechly, has retired and tight end Greg Olsen is leaving the team he has been a part of for nine seasons. Franchise quarterback Cam Newton’s future with the organization is also still up in the air.

Despite all of that, the 49ers’ success should be viewed as proof that a turnaround is possible. They completely rebuilt the team and made it to the championship game quickly , from 4-12 in 2018 to 13-3 in 2019, the team’s first winning season since 2013. Could the Panthers replicate their model?

The 49ers began a new era in 2017, after Chip Kelly was fired after leading the team to a 2-14 record in his one year as head coach. New coach Kyle Shanahan was allowed to select his general manager, so Shanahan and John Lynch were hired as a tandem to take over a struggling team. It wasn’t pretty to start with. In the first two seasons (2017 and 2018), San Francisco won a combined 10 games and fell to the bottom half of the NFC West. But it turned things around in 2019, starting the year on an eight-game winning streak.

The quarterback

It’s hard to ignore the similarity between the 49ers’ losing Jimmy Garoppolo after three games in 2018 due to a torn ACL and the Panthers’ injury issues with Cam Newton.

While Newton has been with the Panthers significantly longer — the 49ers traded with the Patriots to get Garoppolo in 2017 — Newton’s playing just two games in 2019 contributed greatly to Carolina’s 5-11 record. An unhealthy Newton has, in fact, played a role in their woes each of the past two years. Without Garoppolo for much of 2018, the 49ers struggled between two quarterbacks, Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard, and were unable to find consistency. Sound familiar? While Kyle Allen started at QB for almost all of 2019 for Carolina, rookie Will Grier finished out the season before getting injured in Week 17.

Not having that stability at quarterback hurt the 49ers just like it impacted the Panthers. Was Garoppolo the best quarterback in the NFL in 2019? No, but he had moments, like in San Francisco’s 48-46 win over the Saints.

Getting that season-long consistency at quarterback is key. Garoppolo didn’t take his team out of games. Whether it’s Newton, a free agent signing or someone in the draft, having a reliable player at the position is the first step for the Panthers.

Better than appearances?

While the Panthers were flawed in 2019, they were also in many close games. Six of their 11 losses were by one score or less. While the Panthers are being rebuilt this offseason, there are positives to be taken from that. It’s interestingto wonder how the Panthers would have done had Newton been healthy for the entire year.

The 49ers’ 4-12 record in 2018 may also be a bit misleading. Six of their losses were also by one score or less.

“The 49ers were probably better than their 4-12 record in 2018 indicated,” 49ers beat writer for the Sacramento Bee, Chris Biderman said in an email, “There’s a decent chance they would have hovered around .500 and been in the mix for a Wild Card spot had Garoppolo remained healthy — especially after going 5-0 to end the 2017 season when Garoppolo first became starter. They were the first team in league history to finish 6-10 after starting 1-9.”

It’s easy to say the Panthers could have accomplished more with a healthy Newton this year, but their issues extended beyond quarterback. He likely wouldn’t have saved them from the dramatic loss in San Francisco in Week 8, but it’s not out of the question that this team was better than it appeared. The Panthers beat multiple playoff teams, including the Texans and Titans, and kept things competitive on the road against the Packers.

Building anew

This year the 49ers became the seventh team to reach the Super Bowl without a pass, rush or catch from a former first-round pick, per Elias Sports.

What does that mean? The 49ers built their success by bringing in quality free agents and finding talent for the skill positions all over the draft board. 46 of the 53 players on the 49ers’ roster were brought in over the three-year period after Shanahan and Lynch took over. Whether through the draft (TE George Kittle, DE Nick Bosa), free agency (CB Richard Sherman) or a trade (Garoppolo), San Francisco focused on bringing in new players that fit their schemes and approaches.

“(The 49ers) 4-12 finish led to getting the No. 2 pick in the draft, which led to landing Nick Bosa,” Biderman said. “They acquired one the best defensive player in the draft at a key position of need, which had a dramatic impact on reshaping the defense into one of the best in the league.”

This offseason, Carolina will experience the beginning of that kind of roster turnover, including Kuechly’s retirement and Olsen moving on. Seven defensive starters are entering free agency. They won’t all be back in 2020 — many of them won’t have interest in being part of a rebuild. The Panthers likely won’t fall upon an amazing trade like the 49ers did with Garoppolo, but some clarity might be gained on the future of the team’s long-term quarterback solution. On top of that, the Panthers have some pieces in place that they can start to rebuild the team around, like RB Christian McCaffrey and LB Shaq Thompson.

“(The 49ers have) four former first-round picks on their defensive line and that doesn’t include Solomon Thomas. They’ve invested in Richard Sherman, they’ve invested in some of these defensive backs,” Mike Band, NFL Next Gen Stats analyst and former NFL scout, said. “They’ve hit on some of these rangy athletic linebackers and I think that’s definitely something the Panthers have been ahead of the curve on. It’s not necessarily the run-stopping thumpers anymore, it’s the unique guys that can play all three downs and play in space.”

What Carolina can take directly from San Francisco is the principle used when selecting players. The pieces that were added fit Shanahan’s offense (like Kittle) and allowed them to thrive. Both new offensive coordinator Joe Brady and defensive coordinator Phil Snow emphasized in their introductory conversations with media the importance of fitting the players to their schemes.

“We have to find what our guys do well and put them in the best position to have success,” Brady said. “Let’s find what they do well and do what they do well. If we’re not doing that, we’re not doing a great job as a coach.”

Making things work best to fit the players extends to everything, especially the quarterback.

“It’s all about fit. Jimmy Garoppolo fits what they do because he excels in situations they put him in,” Band said. “Garoppolo, who throws deep at the lowest rate has the highest deep completion percentage. You don’t do it often, but when you do you’re great at it, you can take that theory and put it to everything.”

Having a high draft pick (second overall) — and having top players available when your pick comes up — certainly helps as well. With multiple teams in need of quarterbacks ahead of the Panthers’ seventh overall pick in the 2020 draft, they will have an opportunity to pick an impact player, especially someone that could play a large role on defense such as Clemson LB Isaiah Simmons or Auburn DT Derrick Brown. Both of those would help attack the two areas that Band says teams like the 49ers have effectively made a priority, stopping the pass and making big plays through the air on offense.

“The root of it is, how do you stop the pass and how do you have success in the passing game,” Band said. “It’s about addressing the biggest areas of the team that can have an effect on the win-loss record.”

The 49ers have also taken advantage of having an “offensive genius” in Shanahan. The Panthers will try to build their own offensive greatness with Brady.

Culture

One last note on something the Panthers can take from the 49ers over this next stretch of rebuilding. The 49ers had to go through two hard years under the duo of Shanahan and Lynch before they were able to go on this year’s run. It is likely to be the same case for the Panthers. One thing the team can’t do is fall apart in the locker room during the hard times.

The last four games of the 2019 season, after Ron Rivera was fired, were hard on players and staff alike. This could be seen publicly in Olsen’s comments and in Donte Jackson calling out defensive coaches.

San Francisco’s ability to stay away from that was key in keeping the team buying in over the tougher two seasons

“The 49ers maintained a solid culture and locker room vibe despite playing so poorly over the last two seasons,” Biderman said. “There was no backstabbing, blaming or turning on each other, which had been a theme of previous tenures. The players trusted Shanahan to get them on the right track once all the pieces were in place.”

Rhule didn’t choose Hurney, like Shanahan did with Lynch in San Francisco. It was the other way around. But the players going all in on Rhule and Hurney’s vision will be key going forward.

A lot of things have to fall right for a team to get to a Super Bowl and that certainly happened for San Francisco. But as the Panthers prepare for their own rebuild, taking a look at what those before them have done might not be a bad idea.

Alaina Getzenberg

The Charlotte Observer

Alaina covers the Carolina Panthers for The Charlotte Observer. Before coming to Charlotte, she worked at The Dallas Morning News and The NFL Today on CBS. Support my work with a digital subscription