Panthers mock draft 3.0: Projecting best-case and outside-the-box picks for all 7 rounds
The coronavirus pandemic will make Thursday’s NFL draft different than any other, and all the necessary steps have been taken to make sure everyone is prepped to draft virtually from their homes. The league conducted a mock draft Monday to test out how trades and picks will go. Now we’re conducting our final of three mock drafts.
The Panthers have plenty of holes to address, especially on defense, and there are a variety of ways Carolina could conduct the first two days and still have plenty of areas of need to fill on Day 3.
Trading back at some point to acquire more draft picks would serve the Panthers well, but for this final mock, we decided Carolina would stand pat.
Here’s the Observer’s third and final look at what could be Thursday.
Round 1, No. 7: DL Derrick Brown, Auburn
The Panthers desperately need help on the defensive line, and Brown continues to make a lot of sense at seventh overall. While he is considered the best defensive tackle in the draft by many analysts, the Giants appear to be the only team ahead of the Panthers that would consider taking him. There have been reports that his less-than-stellar combine performance is a concern to some, despite his ability to be a disruptive interior defender. ESPN’s Mel Kiper even described him as potentially being the third-best overall player in the draft.
Best-case scenario: Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons is still available at seventh overall. The versatile defender would make a lot of sense for the Panthers’ defense to build around as the team transitions to a new era. He’s just not likely to make it to them.
If Simmons, Brown and Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah are all gone: Trade back. Carolina needs as many picks as it can get and grabbing someone like South Carolina defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw or a cornerback later in the first round, while acquiring at least another draft pick, makes more sense than reaching for a player who they aren’t in love with.
Round 2, No. 38: CB Jaylon Johnson, Utah
Best-case scenario: There are multiple starting-level cornerbacks that could and should be available at this spot Day 2. Johnson is a physical corner that the Panthers could continue to develop. Speed and raw skills are attributes that the team is looking for, as the new coaching staff feels it can play a large role in developing players for the long-term. Johnson fits that model.
Other players who could also fit well for the Panthers at this spot include LSU’s Kristian Fulton, Auburn’s Noah Igbinoghene or TCU’s Jeff Gladney.
There are multiple corners that make sense for the Panthers with their pick in the second round if they don’t trade back. With cornerback being such a position of need, and considering that starting-level talent is expected to be available, it seems like the right way to go on Day 3. If Okudah somehow fell to them in the first round, it would be a different story. A defensive lineman might be who they take on Day 2 instead.
This could also be a good trade-back spot for the Panthers. There are a variety of players who are likely to be available throughout the second, third and fourth rounds who could fit their needs.
Outside-the-box scenario: The Panthers instead address a position like wide receiver in the second round. With this being considered one of the deepest wide receiver classes in some time and the Panthers’ large amount of defensive needs, there will be too many good players available at positions they need starters to take a receiver. Players like TCU’s Jalen Reagor, Colorado’s Laviska Shenault and Clemson’s Tee Higgins would be under consideration if they go in that direction.
Round 3, No. 69: DL James Lynch, Baylor
Best-case scenario: Picking Lynch is simple here. In all three mock drafts, we have selected Lynch to wind up with the Panthers. Yes, in this scenario they would have already addressed the defensive line with Brown, but Carolina needs to add more than one player, and Lynch led college football in total QB pressures last year with 70, per Pro Football Focus. On top of that, Lynch is the first player coach Matt Rhule recruited to Baylor and he has a special relationship with the Panthers’ coaching staff. Not only do they know what he brings, but he would also be a good player to bring the type of culture Rhule is looking for to the locker room.
Outside-the-box scenario: Same as Round 2. Stick to the areas that aren’t as strong throughout the draft. The Panthers can address offensive weapons more on Day 3. There aren’t as many holes for immediate starters to fill on the offensive side of the ball unless offensive guard is addressed. Ohio State guard Jonah Jackson could be a fit here as he can fill in at a variety of spots on the line. Temple offensive lineman Matt Hennessy may also get a serious look from the Panthers on Day 2 due to his history with the team’s coaching staff.
Round 4, No. 113: G Damien Lewis, LSU
Best-case scenario: It doesn’t need to be Lewis, but at some point during the draft the Panthers should address the offensive line. Day 2 was early, but early on Day 3 could make a lot of sense. After losing both of their starting guards in the offseason, bringing in another option at the position would be beneficial. General manager Marty Hurney said that addressing offensive line depth was one of the team’s priorities this offseason.
It just so happens that Lewis played under Carolina’s offensive coordinator, Joe Brady, last year and was part of a line that won the Joe Moore Award last year for the best front five in the country.
Outside-the-box scenario: Drafting the right tight end could make sense here, but isn’t an ideal scenario. Over the Observer’s last two mock drafts, LSU’s Thaddeus Moss has been projected to the Panthers at some point for a variety of reasons, but not in this version. If the Panthers are going to bring in a tight end to try and replace Greg Olsen, it has to be the right tight end, not someone to just sit behind Ian Thomas. It’s not enough of a priority to use a high draft pick on and tight end isn’t a position of particular strength in this year’s draft.
Round 5, No. 148: S Josh Metellus, Michigan
This pick was acquired from Washington in exchange for quarterback Kyle Allen.
Best-case scenario: For the Panthers, depth at safety is needed. Metellus can play downhill in run support and NFL analyst Lance Zierlein said he has the ability to offer “position versatility,” a magical phrase with Carolina.
Another one of Metellus’ top attributes is his ability to tackle with a high finishing rate. Eric Reid was the Panthers’ second-leading tackler last season behind Luke Kuechly, and while Metellus would not be starting right away, he could have an immediate impact on special teams.
Outside-the-box scenario: If the Panthers for some unknown, wild reason haven’t selected a corner yet, they better do so with one of these fifth-round picks, like Georgia Southern cornerback Kindle Vildor. But it should absolutely be addressed earlier.
Round 5, No. 152: WR Tyler Johnson, Minnesota
With the depth of this year’s draft class, it’s hard to see the Panthers walking out of the seven rounds without one wide receiver or tight end. Bringing in Robby Anderson in free agency was a good first step, but that doesn’t mean they should stop addressing the position.
There’s a lot to like about Johnson. He finished his senior year with 86 receptions, 1,318 yards, and 13 touchdowns in 13 starts. He went back to school to get his degree, even though he could have been drafted last year. The biggest knock on him is that he is slower than many receivers, and had been waiting for his pro day to run the 40-yard dash, but did not get the opportunity due to the pandemic.
Outside-the-box scenario: See above.
Round 6, No. 184: LB Evan Weaver, Cal
There aren’t any outside-the-box or worst-case scenarios in the last two rounds of the draft, because anything goes. In this mock draft, we have yet to address linebacker, which the Panthers will need to continue to tackle (pun intended) in some way with the retirement of Kuechly. The Panthers signed Tahir Whitehead in free agency, but even if they don’t land Simmons on Day 1, it’s still a position they should add to.
Weaver would be a tremendous locker room presence for the Panthers. The First Team All-American in 2019 was one of the Bears’ leaders last year and finished the season with 182 tackles in 13 starts, including an impressive 103 solo tackles. He’s not a Kuechly replacement, but Weaver would fit the type of team Rhule is trying to build.
ROUND 7, No. 221: EDGE James Smith-Williams, N.C. State
Smith-Williams, a Raleigh native, also found his way to the Panthers in our second mock draft. The Panthers have so many needs on defense. Taking a local player with upside in the seventh round makes sense.
He was selected to wear the N.C. State No. 1 jersey this past year for his work ethic, character, leadership and accomplishments. Smith-Williams has struggled to stay healthy throughout his college career, including a lower-body injury in 2019. His body developed with North Carolina State’s strength and conditioning department during his college career, adding over 60 pounds since his freshman season, and had a strong junior year with 37 tackles, 9.5 for loss and six sacks.
The Panthers are in the process of starting over in a way we haven’t seen in some time. Whatever way this draft goes will be illuminating about the team’s next steps and how Carolina will look in the years to come.
This story was originally published April 21, 2020 at 6:00 AM.
