Analysis: The Panthers are where we expected them to be, and that’s a good thing
At the beginning of the 2020 season, most expected the Carolina Panthers to finish with about four or five wins.
The first step in the long-term goal of continued success. Team owner David Tepper cautioned that this would take time. Head coach Matt Rhule often brings up the “process.” Being well under .500 in the first season is part of it.
Flash forward to the latest bye week in the NFL, and the Panthers sit at 4-8.
That’s after being without the team’s star player, running back Christian McCaffrey, for nine games this year because of ankle and shoulder injuries. And six of those eight losses have come by eight points or less.
It’s hard to step back and look at where everything stands in rebuilding a program. But that’s why Rhule was brought in. That’s what he has done in his career, restructured teams and then brought them success.
Does that mean it’s guaranteed to work in Carolina? Absolutely not. There are no guarantees.
But there has been only one game this year that the Panthers haven’t been truly competitive in, and that is a sign that the Panthers are where they were to be expected to be, if not in a better place. Tepper stressed patience. None of this should be a surprise.
“We’re going through the building phase,” Rhule said on Panther Talk radio this week. “It’s not always fun, but you can certainly see that it is happening.”
Areas of growth
The Panthers offense needs to be evaluated with an asterisk. Missing your best player for 75% of the games will do that to a unit, and the offense has been notably better when McCaffrey is on the field. The offense has had some strong moments but sometimes proven to be inconsistent.
The defensive growth and development during the season, however, has been encouraging. Are the Panthers one of the top defenses in league? Far from it.
There have been aspects to be excited about. Jeremy Chinn has become a serious Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate. He leads all rookies in tackles (86) and defensive touchdowns (two) while playing the third-most defensive snaps (710).
“Jeremy just adds a lot on the field, how fast he plays and physical and with the energy that he plays with and we can play him in almost every package that we have,” defensive coordinator Phil Snow said. “Well, we do play with every package that we have, so he’s a big dimension for us.”
Brian Burns is having a strong second season with a team-high six sacks and 17 quarterback hits. Moving defensive lineman Efe Obada inside has produced good results and has helped lead to a career-high 3.5 sacks.
Coaching has been an issue at times, for example needing to bring more pressure at the end of the loss to the Minnesota Vikings last week. But with the tools Snow has, the defense has had some success, but more importantly it’s continuing to improve.
After giving up 115-plus rushing in each of the first five games, the Panthers have only allowed opponents to rush for 100-plus yards three times in the past seven games and one of those was not against the Vikings’ Dalvin Cook.
The defense recorded five sacks in the first six games but has totaled 13 in the past six (a five-sack game against the Detroit Lions helps).
This was a unit expected to struggle this year. All seven rookies are out on the field to some extent, and the Panthers are working to get to develop the young players.
Areas to watch
There are fixes that need to be made. The offense has stalled too many times this year late in games. Inconsistency from the linebacker position and some of the defensive veterans have been unresolved. Third down is an issue on both sides of the ball, as are special teams woes.
A pass-catching tight end would be a big help for this offense, and it’s never great to see recent draft picks watching from the sideline. The fate of some the early 2019 draft picks — left tackle Greg Little and quarterback Will Grier — is up in the air as other backups see the field ahead of them.
“To me, where people were drafted or selected that affects your decision-making is what ruins organizations,” Rhule said in November. “You owe it to the team and the players to play the guys who practice the best and play the best and if you’ve drafted right, then they’ll be out there.”
There were plenty of ideas about how offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s offense would look, but those have been dashed by the absence of McCaffrey, who the offense was partly built to run around. But quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has exhibited poor decision-making at times and made questionable throws. Other times, he has kept the Panthers in the game. The long-term future at quarterback is in the air, and there are question marks regarding multiple spots on the offensive line.
The Panthers invested money into the offense, but not as much building it for the long-term just yet. Seven defensive draft picks will inject young talent into the defensive side of the ball, but won’t do so much for the offense. The fact that the defense has shown progress and sometimes outplayed the offense is a positive for the years to come.
There are stats upon stats about how they stack up against the rest of the league, and we could dissect them for areas of strength and weakness. But that’s not what the Panthers are about in 2020. With four games left, continued improvement is the priority, as hard as that might be for fans to watch.
